40/70 Benchmark

2021-2022 ended up okay for most, but more often than not you are right.

Wife is from Uganda and has family there....she is orchestrating the construction and managing it...I've just assisted by procuring the funding.

Should be great....we are just finishing up an 8 unit housing complex to fuction as an Air b & b.

Probably some -NAO/PNA early, +NAO/PNA in February with more blocking in March. I'll be looking at the extra tropical Pacific late this month when I return from Africa.

I just hope to god its wetter for the NE or I'll plunge into the Japanese piss-pool.

We don't need indexes in this new, warmer climate. Just stick a thermo in the piss-pool east of Japan and call it a day. Seriously, though...I do agree that there is a ceiling on our winter potential until that changes.

That is not as strongly positive as I had suspected. I'm doing a lot of seasonal work on the polar domain right now...will be interesting to see if we jive again.

What is your NAO formula at currently?

Don, I am thinking December-January and then again in March.

Gonna need a colder boat-

I'll bet the -NAO periods aren't partculary cold because the PNA/EPO will probably flip....so probably still messy events, just more favorable tracks.

This fits my early stuff precisely...+NAO with -EPO and some bouts of -AO.

Is there any winter correlation for having such a sustained and robust +AO/NAO this time of year?

Tend to agree, but I do think it will get rather destructive.

I think the NE will fare better if SE Canada is cold.

I mean the balance of the season by "finish"....

Wow...I didn't expect it to bump up ACE. May be a fercious finish-

Glad you're a good sport, Chris. I agree that the seasnal consensus probably doesn't have the pattern nailed. But if I had to pick two elements that I am most confident in, it would be ridging INVO AK and a primary storm track inland from the east coast.

That precip pattern also screams "Miller B" to me....check out how the swath of negative precip anomalies abates over central NE, and we see a redevelopment of + anomalies to the southeast. Makes sense given the vortex situated near HB in the pressure anomaly chart.

Pretend I just injected you with truth serum....say the EURO had just come off of the presses with a HUGE southeast ridge, vortex over AK and about a +5 anomaly thoughout most of the NE....would you honestly be shifting the topic to the inaccuracy of seasonal models?

I would think it would be tough to get too many major lows plowing through the lakes with a vortex INVO of Hudson's Bay....these charts scream SWFE/Miller B to me. Also trying to think of what would bias the models towards higher heights over AK in a cool ENSO. They would have to be underestimating La Nina and/or developing it too far east. I am confident this isn't going to be a robust Nina, so I buy the -EPO, which aligns with all of my early seasonal work. Now, maybe they are underdoing CC and it will be generally somewhat warmer...okay. Maybe they are also underplaying the +WPO influence given how stout that West warm pool is, but it may be tough to get the +WPO to exotic levels with stout EPO blocking. Interesting-

Yup. I will say that the bias is often towards stock ENSO, which was true last season.

Absolutely agree with this, but I would take the under on the degree of latitude and elevation needed relative to recent seasons. Like I said, you aren't getting all of that energy to consolidate as far west without a trough to Baja.

Bingo- Not everything needs to have a KU chapter dedicated to it to produce appreciable snowfall in the NE.

Nice map.