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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    6.32" JJA total here.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree for the most part, but I still think we could pull off a sub 1981-2010 climo. I think it would be a low return type of anomaly, but I don't think that ship has sailed quite yet. I may be wrong-
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think you are going to get pushback from anyone about how exceedingly difficult it is to get any season to finish below the longer term 1895-2000 climo...this is why I never use that climo base. It's not because I'm in denial about anything or trying to dissociate, but it's for the same reason that I don't begin every outlook by rehashing that the sky is blue.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not too worried about that. Largest bias of climate models is to over-bake ENSO into the forecast, which should be weak. While I expect a +NAO, it's not going to be wall-to-wall IMO.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    How were you relative to normal snowfall last year?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    In a perfect world, yes, but the PDO is more of a longer term oscillation that doesn't always correlate to our sensible weather.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    May be tied to your October MJO rule...or a coincidence.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, when you average 20", scoring 12" the first month kind of seals the deal.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    It may just be an issue for more research needing to be done on the topic...it's bad enough that ur sample size is so low, but I feel like having only one piece of research on top exacerbates that issue.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    100% agree here...been my stance all along.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I never doubt any of your research......just saying, not what I would have guessed.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    2014-2015 was even more anomalous in that respect.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Far too reductive of an analysis.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is counterintuitive AFAIC.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even if we did, I'll take my chances on more snowfall than last year.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think there is some value in honing in on how much temperature maxes have warmed, since I don't think the warmer mins are as detrimental to snowfall.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    He also pointed out that the calculation that incorporates said cold pool is only modestly positive.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    It began in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño....mid Atlantic just lucked out with the KU, NE did not.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Little warmer and more snowy..at least for most of SNE.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would prefer to run it back with a more neutral WPO.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last year is not a perfect analog, but it is variable IMO...it's one of my primary analogs.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it will be a ratter, but there are some limitations.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with this...I'm not arguing that there isn't utility in seasonal rankings....however, if you aren't forecasting for a client that requests that, and understand the context of current climo within a warming climate than it isn't necessary. I do incorporate use of the 1951-2010 climo period for temps in an effort to "normalize" some of that disparity owed to CC when using analogs...otherwise, most older analogs will appear frigid by today's standards.
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