40/70 Benchmark

2017-2018 had some decent troughing....I mean, did I pull nearly 4' in March with a ridge??

I promise...if we get beyond the next solar min and nothing has changed, then I will fully capitulate. I wish I could say the same for the other side if NYC sees 50".

I don't agree with this, but it's no sense arguing because this topic is so politicized....no one is ever going to change the other's mind. My guess if that even if it happens, the debate will still wage on because it will get worked into the narrative some how...."Well, we are fortunate we had a mismatch, which I saw comeing when the October MJO spiked...but it won't happen again". Long story short...it's like politics. No one is ever going to change their mind or admit that they are wrong...and around, around we will go-

A moderate RONI implies a pattern that appears to be correalting to a degree comensurate with said strength...regardless of whether or not the La Nina is coupled. All I care about in a seasonal outlook. The RONI doesn't measure the how well La Nina is coupled...MEI does that.

36.9 for the low here.

Side piece?

More like parade of lakes cutters/redevelopers.

It's incredible how many people are incapable of nuanced thought...it has to be one extreme or the other. Either CC doesn't exist/won't impact winter, or "snowy seasons are a thing of the past". Either side loses credibility instantly with me. Jesus...accept the fact that CC is real and is impacting our wintrers, but it can still snow...both are true. I should focus my practice on Dialectical Behavioral Therapy for weather folks...I'd make a killing.

The CANSIPS would be a good winter for the NE....period.

Right...this is what the MEI and RONI better convey. I agree the west PAC issue must be considered ...only thing that is keeping me measured. That said, I view that as more of a cap and don't expect this season to be bad.

Stop focusing on on ONI. RONI and MEI will border on moderate.

Yea, I don't buy it being that dry...just commenting on the output.

Who needs snow when the demise of society is imminent-

I'm as shocked that you chose to point that out as I'm sure everyone else is... I do foresee a gradient aspect to this season... maybe it's a bit further north than that year owed to CC....just gonna have to see. I think it's a pretty decent west Pacific analog in that it was more neutral than the majority of the past decade, albeit not outright negative like 2021-2022. I think the mid atlantic will have a better shot later in the season than earlier....just my early thoughts. I don't see this season as a KU cookbook, though we will have a window or two. With cold in SE Canada and systems trying to cut west/moisture trying to overrun antecedent cold, you will probably want latitude.

Consensus has a similar look with respec to tropical convection. https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_ssto_3m?area=area08&base_time=202509010000&type=ensm&valid_time=202512010000

@dendrite@dryslot

Same page as raindance....when I see phase 7 December composite all I can think of is Dec 2007, although that month didn't spend much time in that phase in a literal sense.

Well, that is a flip from 86F...not saying it's gonna snow lol

That was all I commented on...I don't think the series is over or anything.

I think my sentiment was deserved...you have ripped Chapman from the day they signed him...going on about how he always melts when the lights get bright. Sorry, dude...he shoved it right up your tailpipe when the lights were brightest, and it should go without mention?? BS-

Some signs of a flip in the latter third or so of this month.

I don't think so.

Didn't have to wait that long lol He tore me a new one via text just after the game last night

CFS is MUCH warmer.....my stuff is seemingly a compromise of the two.