40/70 Benchmark

I certainly do not argue with the idea of a +NAO/-EPO this season.....just get some semblance of variability with resepct to the PNA and I will roll with that, though folks in Virginia may feel differently.

Well, even those 4 seasons 2021-2022 through last season....the only one that didn't have a fighting chance in the northeast was the 2023-2024 El Nino, which isn't a relevent analog this season. I would take 2021-2022, 2022-2023 with a slightly less extreme RNA, or last season with a bit more precip. Its not the death-knell some are making it out to be, though it certainly slams the breaks on the notion of any imminent, major regime change. That doesn't really tell me anything that I didn't already know because I have already conceeded another solid -PDO winter looking at how low it is right now...a cursory glace back throughout history seals that. Raindance was pimping 2022-2023 as an early analog...which I would be fine with. I'll take my chances on not having the west coast trough extend to the Baja again...December and March would have been great.

Oh, man...that is confusuing. Wayyyy too many dashes.

Some of these seasons aren't that warm.....its heavily biased by years like 1982-1983, which really isn't relevent this season. It certainly gives pause for expecting a repeat of last season, but I would hang myself over it.

I doubt another dry winter.

Few crucial edits.

GFS has been, too.

94 today.

Well, I gave you a list of easterly QBO/cool ENSO analogs a week or so back....the composite featured a ridge thatg was about as flat as a 50 year old weather dork's gut-

90.7

What is LWM?

90.0 4 consecutive days-

RT 2 works for me-

Good place for it.

Perfect

Got up to 89.1, but has settled back to 87.7.

That makes sense to me....My early hunch is that we will have a strongly -EPO, and a near neutral to modestly +WPO....I think this regression is temporary and we will recommence the climb out of this.

87.4

The seasonal oscillation....you can set your watch by warm piece of shitness during the cold season holidays.

I think the fluctuation earlier this year was the first sign of the longer term trend line beginning to sway upward...but you don't just go from 0-100 coming out of this....its going to be a 2 steps forward, one stap back deal protracted over several years.

I don't really care what the ONI does, I'm considering modest la Nina analogs.

You could have at least gave torch tiger or someone a drunk dial first

Thankful for my fake relief.

72.1 for the low...back up to 81.9