40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I'm not skeptical of the storm....I'm skeptical that we get impacted to a large degree.
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Yea, but its going to be windy Monday....have you factored that in?
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As much as the prospect of 2' in central Virginia intrigues me, my nose needs picking, so there are other worthwhile endeavors.
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I've waited to blog about this threat, despite the ceiling, for a reason...part of me still feels like I may never need to bother. I'll decide this weekend whether to do a write-off piece, or a preliminary threat assessment type.
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I'm really going to want to turn the page if next week doesn't work....not sure I want any more "chances".....hopefully the pattern flips in March and I can check out.
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You moved to Mass?
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GEFS and EPS both have increasing spread back to the west, with kind of an inverted trough eppendage like feature, so there must be at least a couple of larger hits showing up.
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Extrapolating, I think the 06z EPS would be a bit of a step back.
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00z EPS is a modest improvement over 12z.
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The 00z EURO is precisely the type of evolution I'm afraid of, and would fit that narrative of this season like a glove.
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I think its always been high confidence that there will be a large storm near the east coast, but I'm still leery of how exactly it unfolds....so no, still not entirely sold on a big hit.
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Of course that's the one post you make in this thread.
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Just looks like 06z isn't quite as proficient as a phase, but if that is the level of variance we are seeing at this range, that is about as glaring a signal as one could expect.
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Not at this point, no.
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Close...19mb.
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I think I'd literally sacrafice a nut to verify the GFS.
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I'm guessing the GFS does that.
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I guess others can get their rocks off too low baro....just give me a low that drops 25mb in 12 hours about 100mi south of LI.
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BINGO. Unless your telling me we are going to have a 1/100 year jet intensity like the Super Storm, that caps things up here at around a foot...give or take.
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I actually wouldn't care for a solution that deep at such a low latitude....LBSW interest anyone?
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May not make many changes to First Call.
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That will happen because it whiffs us. Looks like the 12z GFS.
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No chance its going to evolve into a pure snow event there.
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I don't think this is a sign that they are going to spend again....they got this deal done on their terms.
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I can't take that....rather a whiff.
