40/70 Benchmark

I think this is more like the mid to late 70s, where as the PDO flipped from cold to warm. AMO could also switch soon, too.

Almost time to track the swarm of ass mist for the marathon.

I think so, but obviously lets see how it looks next fall. I can't possibly fathom an 8th consecutive down season (I know who can and why) and am going to begin compiling data as to why in June.

@512high, don't cry because this season is over, smile because next season is going to happen.

BTW, raindance just echoed a lot of my thoughts in the ENSO thread moving ahead in relation to the PDO flip, possible el Nino next year, etc. Stand the fu(k by next year.

I'm about ready to sign off....once I get my Feb review and March preview done, I'll largely dissapear until the full seasonal review in May.

I know..imagine if someone showed a map of a blizzard 15 days out and exclaimed "alas, the snow drought is over"

CANSIPS actually had the best seasonal forecast in terms of the pattern...I recal it was consistently the coldest guidance.

Same page on much of this..in fact, I was thinking of the phase switch of the mid to late 70s just yesterday. Great job on the 2013 analog BTW....the snowfall was certainly far less in the NE, but that is a crap shoot. I didn't see your maps, but I am guessing that you had the cold se idea that everyone missed. I def. factored that season in, but clearly not heavily enough since I was too warm. I expected a cold stretch mid season, but December and February were colder than I thought. La Nina was marginal...I can see a case either way...but bottom line is that it was weaker, and weak events have greater variance, obviously. My idea concerning the ultimate intensity and orientation of La Nina worked out very well.

I could certainly see ENSO neutral.

Well, I was referring to where we live.

No way!!

Agree.

Of course, the one that counted tracked over Lowell...

That't the date I mentioned yesterday....7th anniversary special?

Yea, its goes in a cycles. Of course for a while last decade, every sea gull queef got funneled over the BM.

49.1 Hit 50 earlier.

I have to be honest....I was wondering last decade if CC was't INCREASING our climo snowfall here in SNE. I never said that because there wasn't near enough data, and now we see why.

Yea, that has always happened and always will. That said, CC certainly isn't making it easier to avoid.

Its been a little of everything....CC has definietely played a role..there have been some marginal events in which we may have fared better 20 years ago, or maybe some near phases that would have phased better back when with less compression. But its also been to a larger degree just some poor multidecadal signals combining with buzzard's luck....that's called regression from the insane 2010's.

Only cold by modern standards, but yea..... Chris glossed over that point by saying it was the expected deviation from MC forcing....I also predicted one this season, as well....but it wasn't a deviation, it was a departure. It wasn't a month or 6 weeks....it was just about all of the season.

If you look back throughout peak of post Pacific cold phases....there have been similar stretches. 1950s had a spell like that.

My interpretation is that its just made that N Jet so active that it impedes proficient phasing, but if I'm wrong...he can chime in.

@AllsnowI like your stance on his...you buy a lot of it, but just don't take the leap that its permanent...more conservative approach. That is my position.

Already is.....his response time is faster now that OT is closed. Now look what we've done.