40/70 Benchmark

I guess slightly...not enough to get me excited. Agree with your last sentence.

Yea, the GEM looks just like Juno.

I don't really see a concerted trend towards a more proficient phase...I see ebbs and flows.

When have we seen that before this season?

Its all so precarious when you are reliant upon a phase with a high degree of proficiency...especially in a la nina season. I'd rather just have a northern stream bowling ball roll under LI, but I understand why at this latitude he would prefer a pure southern wave.

Yes, exactly....need a very proficient phase to get us....the more flawed phases just nail the mid atlantic.

Great, we jackpot in the 34 degree snizzle before they clean up next week.

We'll see what happens....always good debating with you because you know your stuff. I just feel a high end outcome FOR US a la Jan 2015 or Jan 2005 is less likely in this instance relative to other large storm potential given the type of evolution. Hopefully a good storm, nonetheless.

Widepread 12" is very doable....agree on that.

That had far greater N stream contribution than s stream.

Right, but they don't get quite far enough north....there are a couple of risks here.

Ok, yes...very possible.

My original point was that the ceiling is capped.

Jan 2015, Jan 2011, Jan 2005, Dec 2003, April 1997, Feb 1978, Feb 1969x2...I won't count Jan 1961 because that was pretty localized 2' amounts. All of those evolved differently form this in that they had more n stream vs s stream contribution.

Its about MAX RATE of deepening and when H5 closes.

Throughout our area? Sure are..plenty, they just evolve differently from this one.

Right....hardly any are....like I said, its a spectrum. But this one has a large s stream constribution, hence the "LBSW characteristics".

Which ones? I don't think any of those dropped widespread 2' amounts up here, which is my point. All I said was the ceiling is capped, not that there can't be a nice storm.

Name them....I'll grant you Feb 1899 and Jan 1996, desite the fact that the latter proked the northern third of the area. You could use Feb 2003, but that was a different animal in that it was a wall of moisture tossed over an arctic dome.....more precarious with a wound up tempest like this will be.

Could you name one that produced widespread 2'+ across the majority of the area? Maybe Feb 1899? I guess Jan 1996, but that had a sharp cutt-off across the northern reaches of the area.... There usually is some northern stream contribution, that is why I used the word "spectrum", but this looks to have a very large s stream contribution....this isn't like a '78 deal, which essentially consisted of the N stream subsuming a s stream zygote. IDK, has me very leery....then you also have to worry more about track that far south....the more latituide between point x and storm inception, the more that can go awry en route.

If the evolution remains Miller A like, that limits the ceiling for this up here....you aren't getting an upper tier solution like Jan 2015 or Feb 2013 from that....you just aren't, espcially across the northern half of the area. We are going to need a very proficient phase to get up to this latitude for a 1'+ type of deal for the majority of the area.

This is why there is time being spent on butt-banging solitions because there is a pathway to that, as you have referenced, and this season has seemed to seek out said path at least excuse imaginable.

I can, actually....I have been drawing parallels to 1979-1980 since mid January. That is my futility season and it wasn't warm, either. Awful match in AK, so its not a perfect analog by any stretch, but some similarities in the east.

EURO would have Virginia with more snow on the season than I have.

I'm not skeptical of the storm....I'm skeptical that we get impacted to a large degree.