40/70 Benchmark

I will say that the 18z EURO looked more ominous to me, as it looked poised for a "GEM" of a phase.

Its the only model that never bit on Jan 11th.

I would rather be in your area than mine.

Never fails ...either too far north or south. This how a locale finishes safely below average for 7 consecutive seasons.

If it does, its occluding.

Final Call for Messy Holiday Weekend Storm Snow to Rain Near the Coast & Significant Ice Inland Synoptic Overview: The larger synoptic scale overview remains unchanged from Wednesday's First Call. This weekend, a southern stream wave will begin to interact with a lobe of the polar vortex pinned to the south of a potent -NAO block. The combination of antecedent elevated east coast heights attributable to the Maritime continent phases of the MJO and the -NAO block being positioned sufficiently north as to allow a partial midwest phase will maintain enough eastern ridging to allow for an inland track of the low. This will delay the transfer of the mid level low to the coast until the system reaches a very high latitude, which will ensure that snowfall will be relatively limited across much of the region. However, once the system progresses far enough to the east, it will begin to be influenced initially at the surface by confluence due to the tandem of the -NAO block and the potent 50/50 low. It now appears as though the surface low will redevelop on the coast quickly enough so that a portion of the area receives a significant, albeit manageable ice storm on Sunday. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation will overspread the region as snowfall from southwest to northeast on Saturday evening. After a few inches of snowfall, precipitation will rapidly transition to some ice and rain to the south of the Mass turnpike after midnight early Sunday morning. The changeover will slow somewhat as it works into northern areas by mid day due to increased resistance from confluence. However, the potent primary mid level low to the west will ultimately win the battle and snowfall will give way to ice. And then eventually rain, outside of perhaps northern Worcester country during the afternoon. However, towards evening the surface low will transfer to the coast, which will re-advect colder air from the northeast down the coast. This would reintroduce icing issues across especially interior northeastern Mass over through the eastern slopes of the Worcester hills. In fact, precipitation may even change back to snowfall prior to ending entirely later Sunday evening. FINAL CALL: First Call issued Wednesday, February 12 @ 830pm:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/final-call-for-messy-holiday-weekend.html FINAL CALL: First Call issued Wednesday, February 12 @ 830pm:

Final map is all done....should be post by 9.

Yea, I'm sorry...if next week whiffs or brushes me to the south, then this is a dirty, diseased rat.

A lot of the fun for me with these is dreaming high-end, and this is capped. Sucks.....7 consecutive subpar seasons it is, but at least I had a wintry stretch this month.

I know this whole set up blows for me...don't worry, not going to take it out on you.

Agree on the high end range.

Why? I expect it.....not the type of system for high end here.

Good luck with a full phase at an appreciably low enough latitude for a historic impact anywhere in SNE...more like NS. The look out west just begs for a messy phase.

Was awful in the Jan 11 phasing fiasco.

Ordinarily 8-12" wouldn't do a ton for me...but with several inches on the ground and potentially several more to come this weekend, I could work with it.

I do doubt that the phase will be as poor as the GFS implies.

I would't worry about it.....I think its more likely to have a gradient through the N half of the region, than I do pull a Juno.

I guess slightly...not enough to get me excited. Agree with your last sentence.

Yea, the GEM looks just like Juno.

I don't really see a concerted trend towards a more proficient phase...I see ebbs and flows.

When have we seen that before this season?

Its all so precarious when you are reliant upon a phase with a high degree of proficiency...especially in a la nina season. I'd rather just have a northern stream bowling ball roll under LI, but I understand why at this latitude he would prefer a pure southern wave.

Yes, exactly....need a very proficient phase to get us....the more flawed phases just nail the mid atlantic.