40/70 Benchmark

Need to get Steve on it...some lips n hips.

Once spring hits, you know the moisture train will commence.

Yea, while I'm sure the storm day mean temp is somewhat correlated to the mean seasonal temp, its obviously not a perfect 1 correlation so the storm track is what matters in the end......that obviously determines the crucal storm day temp. It isn't just a thermal issue, either....to get those 50"+ upper tier seasons in NYC, you need at least one large event or two and you aren't getting huge dumps with the mid levels lows to your west. Even if the low levels remain cold, you don't want the mid levels drying out and/or warming.

I would honestly take last year over this, too...snowfall was about the same, retention was much better this season, but last year had by far the best storm for me....which is what I weight heavily.

Only a week and a half until the big storm!

Yea, the one last month was born of low level, tropospheric processes and worked its way upward, which is why the effect was instant.

Oh, well in that case, let me recontemplate the meaning of life.

Yea, I don't believe he's serious.

You should go rest if you bought that.

Hard to bet in favor of that, but I wouldn't be surprised at this point.

Poor Wolfie...having his one cold winter in a decade snatched from him.

Have the ham radio at the ready.

I had +2 to +4 for DM. Hopefully March corrects back a bit warmer.

Right....temps didn't, but every form of unsavory storm track did.

The cutters and southern storms have.

The difficult thing with analogs is finding their value...sometimes I feel as though coming up with the list of analogs is the easy part, but discerning which aspect of each year will offer insight into the coming season is the true challenge. I had 1999-2000 is a pretty strong analog, most notably for the late SSW, but as it turned out, it also had a record +PNA for a February La Nina and was right around transiton from a predominately -PDO to +PDO. 2014 was all about January for me.

Yea, that is all I am saying...as far as any CC induced modifications to the next Pacific warm phase, we are just going to have to wait and see. I obviously expect this warm phase to produce a milder outcome than the last one...without question.

That is the result I got with respect to my forecast, too....I was too warm, but largely got the snowfall right. I see what you are saying concerning the actual pattern, but at the end of the day, I think its important to incoporate the actual data and its reflective of change. Sure, snowfall didn't work out for the northeast, but I think it was clear that change is afoot given the turn of events in other regions.

If you guys recall, the 2023-2024 winter (last season) had a lot of similaraities to the 1972-1973 strong el Nino (during the previous secondary PAC cold phase peak) in the sense that it was competing with the MC forcing.....though obviously it was much warmer given CC.

Hopefully you feel better soon, but don't rush to retrieve the snow maps if you are.

Maybe I am wrong on this and we revert back to a sustained Pacific cold phase, but even if this is a head fake, I think we are nearing the end. We will see....I think we will get the answer to some of these debates I have been having with Chris conerning over the next few years.

Chris, I remember your research quite well and referenced it in my own work.....you keep saying that you expected the steep seasonal positive PNA that ultimately materialized, but my issue with that is that none of those seasons you referenced had a large +PNA in the DM seasonal mean. You don't seem to acknowledge the fact that this was not a one or two month deviation from the MC forcing like the examples that you referenced....but this was a complete flip that has lasted just about the whole season. I feel like its a little disingenous to claim victory based off the fact that you expected a deviation....this wasn't a +PNA interlude....it was a stronly +PNA season the likes of which we have not seen since the super el Nino of 2015. This seems more like a larger scale transition to me, as opposed to an intraseasonal variation. 2020-2021 DM PNA: +.12 2021-2022 DM PNA: -.19 2010-2011 DM PNA: -.35 2017-2018 DM PNA: -.16 2024-2025 DJ PNA: +1.38 and February was quite positive. I know as far as I am concerned, I expected a one or two month devation during a season that would either average negative or near neutral....Jan 2022 was my preferred character of deviation, but if I'm being honest with myself, that is not what this was. I also did not expected a colder than average season (yes, 1991-2020) and if I am not mistaken, you were not either, but apoloigies in advance if your were and I am misinterpreting.

So hasn't everything besides the GFS.