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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's the thing...only need 24 hours-
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    ENSO isn't alone in that respect...watch the impact of that gradient between the boiling Kuroshio current and the Kona low west Hawaii and how it may impact the north Pacific along about mid season, which may constructively interfere with other high latitude blocking downstream over NA.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thankfully not pretty similar in NE!
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...because it had very similar deviations to the ones I expect with this one.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the strongest El Nino ever partly because we have the warmest oceans ever, which means we have more prominent competing forces than ever.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, given how east-based this one is, I think you would want some deviation....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, true....I think most consider that a tacit point given the audience we are dealing with, but noted, nonetheless.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    On average over the course of a season, probably, but you are never going to entirely eliminate any degree of seasonal variation as a byproduct of alternate forcing mechanisms...especially in this modern era of being surrounded by heat sinks.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    If NYC doesn't get more snowfall during the coming season than they did in 1997-1998, then I'll hand my site over to @MJO812and dissapear.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    You missed my point...I was referencing amounts relative to average. I understand my climo...I wasn't assessing the possibility of being "shutout"...
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    My expectations are low, but not that low..I'll take the over on both of those seasons for snowfall at my locale..especially 2023...1997 will be close. There are pretty clear differences that have been discussed which should cause this season to behave differently than those ones later in the season. That said, early season will probably be worse. I expect a quick recovery after that block...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    A lot of us have been in the main ENSO thread.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, I'm not saying it's the "golden ticket" for winter, but it certainly doesn't hurt...this also ties into what I am talking about in the northern Pacific later in the season. Not to mention that this particular block in unprecedentedly strong as modeled.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely...QBO is somewhat different, but solar cycle is night-and-day.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's another thing....the "default to El Nino climo" works both ways.....often they verify too cold because of that, but if they can also miss key developments independent of ENSO that lead to more wintry periods.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's what happened last year, and although it recovered in the short-term thereafter, it predisposed the seasons to additional disruptions during mid winter.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    First of all, the Kuroshio current off of Japan was much cooler in 1997, and I think that combined with the cooler waters west of Hawaii is really going to strengthen that jet and promote ridging at the higher latitudes in the northern Pacific. Secondly, 2023-2024 didn't have anything approaching the magnitude of the Scandinavian-ural block progged for later this month, and had strong MC forcing. I understand you are about as conservative as it gets with respect to long range winter forecasting, which is often a prudent course of action, but it's also important to consider both sides.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with this overall sentiment.....I have been pounding the idea that the high latitudes are going to be pretty interesting this season.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's curious that the seasonal models and Chuck's formula are flagging some -NAO because I agree the background is hostile.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 and 2016 both had minor warmings.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect a minor warming (non-reversal) and wave-1 reflection event latter January into early Feb.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, right.......but even considering that logic, you would think that there would be some additional give relative to 2023, whereas that former regime even more deeply entrenched....I mean, El Nino is stronger...PDO is less negative and the warm pool is further east. This is why I believe there is more wiggle room for a window later in the season.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe latter January...I think we all agree that the seasonal mean will be tough sledding, no pun intended lol
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just speaking of the image Chris posted.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every intense EL Nino has had it...only that was fairly neutral was 1982.....but I think that +WPO is part of the reason why February maybe somewhat better.
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