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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't follow you... We have an arctic flow from Canada over the eastern half of the country in a +TNH pattern....we have a disturbance in the jet stream that pops a low on the southeast coast due to the regime being so suppressed....but if you have tropical forcing that destructively interferes with east coast amplification you tell me what you think is going to happen after that suppressed storm hits the se coast????
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, that is how forcing works, JD. What is favorable for one area isn't inimical to others.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but it is a factor....you can't be dialectical with this stuff.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, the flow is faster...that is real. I just don't buy that this why we aren't getting storms bc other areas are...that's why I think it's more a combo of forcing, -PDO and bad. luck.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, if you have a powerful +TNH pattern, storms are going to have to form to the south, but you don't see them phasing proficienty to get up the coast until they are over the Atlantic. This is why when you watch the news, there is nothing more than flurries in your forecast tomorrow.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...that is my issue with the fast flow narrative.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with him that CC is a factor, but like I said, I think it's more an issue convective forcing destructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...the storms are forming, just not near the BM. Either the lakes or Maritimes.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you notice, we have still yet to pull off a big coastal all-season long...the one big event was a half-assed low slamming into an arctic dome. It was a cheat code to a boring pattern.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Knew I shouldn't have touched it.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I'm just deleting my first call map on this is shit-canning instead of doing a Final.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    4. The resident contrarian..which on this board is anti-cold and snow.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    You saw my forecast snow totals for the season, right? Just bc a particular analog has some value doesn't mean it's going to be a replica season.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the lag will apply since we have antecedent blocking in this case. It's just going to protract it.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not saying it will be awful....I just don't expect a blockbuster month.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't love snow prospects in February...actually like March better.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shouldn't even be a lag with ample antecedent blocking...another consequence of me missing the current blocking is that we won't have to wait until March to feek the impact of the mid month SSW.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, to be fair....I've been too warm all season with respect to my Outlook last fall, despite nailing the pattern save for the late January -NAO.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Can we send a storm to the glue factory?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's about as boring a two weeks as you will find at peak climo.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The more you have, the more is lost to settling/sublimation.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    The concern there is the gradient between the NAO block and the se height bump via RNA....I think I'd prefer to play it safe and just do overruning rather than try for a coastal in that setup.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice looking tarrot card.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    +QBO...too early to say on El Nino, but we're due for a Modoki El Nino...some of these cool ENSO seasons that are inundated with warmth throughout the western subsurface, such as 1967-1968 and 2008-2009, are predisposed to Modoki El Nino the following season...see 1968-1969 and 2009-2010.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seasonal forecasting is like any other challenging endeavor...put the work in to learn from your mistakes and you'll be successful. Some are challenge-averse and that can't be helped.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've been feasting for 3 months TBH.
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