40/70 Benchmark

BC version has it entering the COD on Xmas eve.

We didn't have MJO phase 8 in January of 1990. it was December 1989. https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

Yes, I def. wouldn't love this in your area. Yea, difference should be enough to get me in the game, at least.

Right....all I'm saying is it's a heavier press of the PV...I've always expected it to be a N stream dominated pattern that is favorable for NE, not so much your area into the mid atl.

Chris, if we are being honest with ourselves, that is a definitive trend towards a more concerted press of the PV.

Lots of December 2007 on that composite......my snowiest month of December on record.

I had 4" December 2-3, 2007....right on cue.

I'm going to start diving in again after I emerge from my diabetic coma on Friday, but I'm not trying to imply it's going to be 1993-1994. There are going to be some mild stretches when the cold will get bottled up...no question.

I've been on a the second week of December train, as well, but I won't be stunned to see a few inches that first week. Agree on the se ridge...the pattern is flawed, but we aren't looking for a blizzard, here.....it doesn't take perfection to snow at this latitude in December.

I've been there, man....wonderful thing about the weather is it's always there waiting in the other side.

Been preaching since last summer that se Canada will be cold this season, ignore the rest. All you need to know unless focused on a KU. There hasn't been a shred of doubt in my mind RE a cold se Canada.

Get ready for something akin to December 2007 or 2008. It's going to be good month for most of us, just without the dumb SSW crack that social media was dealing.

Absolutely buy....that is the Pacific trough regime I expect to take hold around Xmas and through the first half of January that should flip to +TNH mid month.

Expect the hostile trend in the polar domain to continue for later in December.

I would expect about a mean of those 3 seasons...maybe add in 2005.

You never answered my question on FB...How did you do in December 2000, 2007 and 2008?

You can tell Tony is panicking because he keeps emphatically questioning anyone who isn't sold on a wintry December.

Could also throw 2001 in.

Maybe a compromise??

Just as you argue the SSW is unlikely to be as impactful, I would also argue that February is unlikely to be as warm and the reflection event will last longer. Notice that 2018 was on the shorter end of the spectrum...

Don't underestimate the ability of +TNH to linger into February. Here is a list provided by Lee at al (2019) of the most prominent reflection events of the past 45 years, including the primary analogs of 2001 and 2018. Courtesy Lee et al 2019 The mean length of the process is 20 days, with 10 days being the minimum, and 60 days the maximum, per Lee et al (2019). Considering the length of the 2001 (33 days) and 2018 (20) events, it as expected that a reflection event will begin between approximately January 13th and 16th 2026, and end between about February 2 and 18th.

MJO doesn't look to be much of a factor for early January, as will probably enter the COD by Xmas, so we are going to be left with a consolidating PV and PT regime.

This is also supportive of a +PNA January.

I don't think January will be cold in the mean because the second half cold will largely serve to negate the first half warmth. I think February and/or March will be colder.