I get that...I'm not arguing the semantics of it, all I am saying is that amplification of the MJO in phase 6-7 de-constructively interferes with east coast suppression, which is also true.
Maritime Continent. Lag of 7-10 days from when the storm hits is phase 6, so I don't see how that supports your position that the N trend is unrelated. It was amplified in phase 6 minus 7-10 days from storm impact.
It's not impossible....phases are usually flawed and complicated...odds are that it will be imperfect, but probably not in that precise manner given the lead time left. That doesn't have to mean we get a blizzard, though.