40/70 Benchmark

#southwestwindsmatter

Warm spells don't count if they're advected in on SW winds?

MEI and RONi are near -1.

MEI is back.... https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ -1.2 peak in SO, ON was up to -1.1.

I don't think it needs to...7 at halfway decent amplitude will do just fine to constructively interfere with the development of +TNH.

I think March will be good.

That is bullshit....watch.

That is the pearly white dong to the promised land.

Yup.

Nah-it's done.

This year was only a couple of days before December.....1981 did. They are usually later.

Early March 2019 had a good storm in SNE...

SNE narrowly missed a HECS in March...nailed CNE. Big SSW in Feb.

Totally buy that analog with more subdued west coast troughing....

Flip back to RNA in January is as fraudulent as Mark Moregarbage's met creds.

This times 1,000,000.

Could even get delayed a bit, but will happen...

Edge of my seat...

Pacific Trough Regime 1, January Winter Storm Threats 0 Forecast Early January Pacific Trough Regime Comes Into Focus Guidance Adjusts Accordingly Next Week Last week Eastern Mass Weather discussed how the uncoupling of the intensifying stratospheric polar vortex from the troposphere was allowing for the unanticipated development of a potent west-based negative NAO block. This was a crucial part of the forecast because it was instrumental in allowing forecast guidance to model a potential major east coast snow storm during a period in early January, which represented a deviation from the winter outlook issued last fall that called for a mild, Pacific trough type of pattern in place during this interval. However, guidance has since shifted rather dramatically towards the type of pattern favored for the first half of January, which replaces the storm threat with warm up. Thereafter, the forecast for the balance of January remains unchanged. Colder Turn Around Mid-Month The pattern should remain mild overall through at least the 10th, with any significant snow threats likely related to northern New England, as the MJO tries to emerge into the MC from the neutral circle. However, the pattern will beginning to enter a state of transition, as heights begin to build on the west coast. The MJO will begin to play more of a role towards mid-month, as it enters phase 7 and constructively interferes with strengthening west coast ridging. Note the support for the EPO and WPO to both return negative by mid month. Although support for the development of a +PNA is more tepid, this is likely to correct more aggressively over the course of the next week. Ultimately the culmination of these changes is a full-fledged +TNH pattern that should ensue by approximately January 20th, which will include a slew of moderate winter storms targeting the interior. It will be important not to allow the more active winter pattern to divert attention away from the stratosphere, which will likely take center stage in February. Please stay tuned for more updates this month-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/pacific-trough-regime-1-january-winter.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/pacific-trough-regime-1-january-winter.html

See-Mour Snow in Methuen than CT....'bout time.

I like early Feb...then flips warm while strat does it's thing.

Theoretically speaking, I agree....but I would be stunned if ends up solidly negative.

It depends...the issue isn't as binary as the question implies. It depends on the pattern and location....generally speaking, +PNA is beneficial anywhere on the east for cold, phase potential....but in the northeast, sometimes a more neutral or even negative PNA is preferred if there is a major NAO block....below about 40N, you always want a +PNA.