40/70 Benchmark

Excerpt from my latest Pacific work...shoutout to @bluewavefor some of the graphics: Summer 2026 Ground Truth Still Somewhat Redolent of Cool ENSO Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS. Here is the 2026 individual summer season compared to those preceding the past four strong El Nino events, which have gotten progressively warmer : Some of this difference is likely attributable to the general pattern of expanding ridges and shrinking troughs that is a byproduct of climate change. However, since the pattern this summer is essentially the diametric opposite of the one in the summer composite preceding intense El Niño, it is fair to wonder if the developing intense El Niño is continuing to face more MC competition than is readily apparent. Note the similarity to summer 2026 with the summer composite preceding strong La Niña events. Obviously it isn't a perfect match, as there are higher heights over the northeastern CONUS in the La Niña composite (left), but the argument could be made that it is a stronger match to 2026 than the intense El Niño summer composite.

Summer 2026 Ground Truth Still Somewhat Redolent of Cool ENSO Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS. Here is the 2026 individual summer season compared to those preceding the past four strong El Nino events, which have gotten progressively warmer : Some of this difference is likely attributable to the general pattern of expanding ridges and shrinking troughs that is a byproduct of climate change. However, since the pattern this summer is essentially the diametric opposite of the one in the summer composite preceding intense El Niño, it is fair to wonder if the developing intense El Niño is continuing to face more MC competition than is readily apparent. Note the similarity to summer 2026 with the summer composite preceding strong La Niña events. Obviously it isn't a perfect match, as there are higher heights over the northeastern CONUS in the La Niña composite (left), but the argument could be made that it is a stronger match to 2026 than the intense El Niño summer composite.

1991 and 2018 also on the dewy list.....1991 was a strong El Nino with essentially neutral PDO and 2018 weak El Nino with decidedly negative PDO....both made my extra tropical Pacific analog composite.

Interesting that two of those "low dew August" years on top, 1957 and 1982, lead into strong El Nino events...the bottom "dewy August" list is comprised of predominately cool ENSO...yet here we are, heading that list. Tell me that the extra tropical Pacific is still at odds with ENSO without telling me-

Good assessment....that's where I'm at.

I don't agree...see where we're at in a few months. If we're still deeply negative, then I'll acquiesce, but I anticipate getting to around neutral.

This will couple more than 2024 at the height of the cold phase.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_3mon_tcc.html

ECMWF hints at this, though I think this is exaggerated....likely closer to the coast than this. That is a resolution issue...like when the GFS places the CF near ORH a few days out from a storm.

Roundy's stuff favors W Canada.

I would do okay, but could def. see it being an ORH season...they have had some uncharacteristically skunkish seasons of late....gonna see that regress.

CFS January rendition would make some fun times for WOR folks....Miller B-East, much?

Has December near normal surprisingly. Is it a bit too cold? Probably....likely underdoing the magnitude and arial extent of that Canadian ridge, but I don't think this will be a bottom-dweller season in terms of snowfall.

Here is January:

Absolute same page....128-495 CFs. Megalopolis Storm CF was right over Wilmington.

This is the European monthly depiction of precip anomalies overlaid with temp anomalies for the month of Feb. Euro is my preferred solution because it doesn't have the zonked Modoki look that the CANSIPS and JMA do....that is overdone and crap. But the Euro simply evolves the El Nino in such a manner whereas the warmth gets pretty evenly distributed..pretty basinwide for winter. You drop those type of precip anomalies, I will gladly take my chances with a +1 temp anomaly at this latitude.

I do, but not during the summer....I consider that before the final write up....I go back and compare summer composites to find fits to the current year.

Yea, same page...I think this is a good assessment. I initially didn't have time for a deep dive and just looked at the IRI, but I think the dynamical data has over adjusted and is too cooked...I'd go statistical suite. I usually kill it with ENSO forecasting, but being in uncharted territory like this makes it more difficult to pin down a specific range, despite obviously knowing it will be intense.

@GaWxI edited these down after really looking at it more...I have put most of my energy into the extra tropical Pacific of late. This is consisted with the max rate of growth observed form this point forward, which was in 1982.

@Stormchaserchuck1How does this composite look now? I tweaked by subtracting the 1941-1970 climo period to wash out a lot of the lower heights and accentuate the positive anomalies in an effort to better capture the changing climate.

Believe me, take the +AO pattern now....good sign looking ahead IMO.

Lukey likey girth?

I prefer it cooler, but this isn't awful.

I don't pay particularly close attention to the weather pattern this time of year in the mid latitudes, so I was excited hearing how "summer is over"...and "fall weather is here". I honestly kept waiting, and waiting...had a gander at the P & C to see 80s for as far as the eye can see. ..was like 'W in the ACTUAL F?