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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Likely because the cold El Niño events of the late 70's freaked them out.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, just depends on the precise SST measurement and calculation are, but I wish they could centralize it. Regardless, neutral-negative now.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://satellitewx.com/ocean?p=ssta&d=2026-09-09&dom=Global&v=r,-160.000,0.000,387.600 Thanks to @BlizzardWx...my new home site.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO up to -.19 today.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    How about region 4?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you can hedge in the narrative....not these asinine AI-generated graphics...agree, there.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    East-based composite versus Euro forecast:
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    See how far west 2023-2024, hence the heavy MC influence.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basin-wide forcing, despite east-based Ssts.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO hits that even harder. It's due to two things IMO....Stratosphere, but not what you think...wave one reflection, as opposed to SSW.....we aren't seeing a reversal IMHO. El Niño is also going to fade westward post-peak, so likely some periods that are more redolent of Modoki in the back half of the season.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I use it more for poleward Aleutian ridging in La Niña.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to that degree, no...that is why I am wondering if adds more Modoki influence versus MC influence relative to the east-based-super composite.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hitting my the top end of my 2.4 to 2.6 range...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to be slightly less MC influence than 2016.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lines up well:
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we need to be careful here because the heat sink-oceans are changing the way we need to view the hemisphere when doing seasonal outlooks....there are some illusions taking place with regard to how 2023 appeared to mimic a Modoki configuration at the surface and was actually a La Nino-hybird, as this year maybe ostensibly an east-based deal acting more basin-wide as by product of all of that warmth tugging everything westward relative to expectation.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is also interesting is that the EURO has trended stronger with the Canadian ridge centered near the east shore of HB, as the it adjusts to the unprecedented magnitude of El Nino, but the position of that Aleutian low remains dead-nuts on that of the August run. IOW, it hasn't trended into any more of an east-based configuration. This isn't what I would expect to see if you are looking for a season 6-month long fall.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    They should if they are incorporating real-time data.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Typhoon Tipand I were speculating about this as a potential "unicorn" scenario...
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