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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    JAMSTEC and CANSIPS essentially now shaking hands on the east-based orientation of El Nino this winter, but I do think the hemispheric evolution of the European guidance makes more sense. I think the Japs and Canadiens are overselling that second half flip in the seasonal mean.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    The JAMSTEC pulls of the unicorn scenario that I was discussing with @Typhoon Tip in that it's an east-based event that essentially acts as a Modoki due to the residual cool ENSO influence/Pacific basin warmth biasing the forcing west of where one would expect based on a traditional synthesis of the basin. Very similar to what happened in 2023 when it looked like a Modoki at the surface, but ended up heavily MC oriented....forcing pulled westward. Do I want to bet on that actually happening in the seasonal mean? About as much as I want to be locked in thread alone with @forkyfork, BUT it does confirm my early hedge to advise caution to those forecasting a season largely bereft of winter on the east coast once we get to about mid January and beyond. This season appears bipolar to me.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    What's interesting to me is that, like the CANSIPS, it's been correcting east with the El Nino, but it doesn't really make much of a difference in the forecast output. This is consistent with what I have been saying about how orientation isn't going to be a huge deal this season given the magnitude of the event at hand. While I think the JAMSTEC and CANSIPS are overdone, you don't need to convince me that forecasting a season largely devoid of winter weather on the east coast is utter folly. It's certainly not going to be wall-to-wall cold and snow...but I think we are essentially trading a great deal of MC influence for a canonical east-based first half, and quite frankly, that is a trade I want mother nature to render final approval of, yesterday.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, ignoring consensus trends is silly.....precision verification isn't the point.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is impressive....the magnitude of warmth under ridges is always underdone in these modern times, so no biggie....did about as well as can be expected.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's on the Ambient Network...not sure how to link it.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think December will be representative of the balance of the season.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, parts of SE MA were above normal in 2016.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.14" event total....I'll take it. I was afraid it would have been even less.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Who doesn't?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    So far, really just the vp amomalies, which I already mentioned...but there is already really a wealth of quality data.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully that station measures the moisture that falls better than it does the moisture in the air.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was so frustrated because I called that blizzard down to within just a few days during the fall, but expected it to get up here....just brutal.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    What a breath of fresh air that is after the last 11 years.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congratulations on the new baby and love the site.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pouring...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    43.3 this AM IMBY this AM....gorgeous.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    @BlizzardWx's site.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    True ratter here....wow, just about futility around Chris out in Greenfield.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it means no arctic source, but the airmass can work in January-Feb.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mid January 1983 I had 20.2" followed by a frigid week, including a day with a high of 10 and low of -5...then in February, I had a 17" and 20.3" event in the same week, for a peak depth of 26". I would sign up for that in a heart beat and think it's totally feasible this season in short bursts.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Who is doing that? Cite the name specifically?? All I see are expectations for a warm season with a heightened risk of a big snow event or two. Obviously the season could easily fail to produce like 1998, but it's not very compelling to discuss that in depth on a weather forum. The upside if we get lucky here in SNE is near normal snowfall and above normal snowfall in the mid atl.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's a DJF mean. Worked for Feb 1983, but I agree it's precarious for the coast. Here is Feb....I think we have seasonable cold here with that ridging out west.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
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