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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think latter January into February would turn out better given less MC influence, but maybe a warmer earlier portion of the season biases the seasonal mean warmer. I don't know of anyone offering resistance to the notion of a very mild December and January in the mean, so any uncertainty is surrounding February.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like 2023-2024 to me.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder what @bluewavefeels about the fact that we haven't seen the big GOA low yet, and what that could mean if we don't...
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only thing I like as much or more than cold and snow is getting the forecast right, so there is nothing worse than when I go cold/snowy and winter sucks...last thing I want.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the most likely outcome is it's just an exception to the October=winter N Pac pattern rule and it's just delayed.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh...I just ran that narrative through AI and needed to go cyber-stroke after reading the response. All I can say is we had better get that pig GOA low soon.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, October is usually telling for that....if we manage a cool ENSOish North Pacific, or hybrid type deal without MC tropical forcing...look out.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    This season isn't as easy as people are making it out to be....aside from it's safe to say it won't average cold. This is my 13th one of these seasonal deals and this one has a lot more conflicting data than most make it seem. Last year was just about the easiest one I have had.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Literally every polar indicator looks great, so I do think it's unreasonable to expect a favorable window....is guidance overdoing it? Probably-
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't want to give people the wrong idea....I'm not looking for an excuse to forecast 2002 or 2009...not happening at all. My whole argument is for a decent to very good 2-4 week stretch...somwething perhaps a bit more protracted than 2016. I agree with Adam that nothing is going to run the show over El Niño, however, I do think the Pacific currents and the higher latitudes are aligned to potentially provide a window of deviation from the straight super El Niño enema.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is extreme....probably between 1997 and 2015 anomalies as compared to 91-20 baseline.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    This tied into what I have been arguing....there are going to continue to be other competing forces dictating the weather in the mid latitudes....in addition to some competing convection in the central ENSO zones, there is another high latitude teleconnection at play that is tied to the Kuroshio current.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see what happens....don't get me wrong, the DJFM period will be warm in the mean...no two ways about that.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is if it even ends up being a -PDO winter. I have serious doubts about that one. I think it at least flips to weak positive I don't think that warmth east of Japan is going anywhere....this is mainly about February, anyway....I'm not debating an exceptionally warm first half of the winter.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's the -PDO in and of itself that is significant, but it's how we are getting there...this isn't our grandparent's EOF.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not at all what I said. Who declared victory in October? 1.2 is such a tiny area it isn't even possible to he convectively dominant. The most prolific convection is actually south of Hawaii...which is independent of what I think will go on in the higher latitudes.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, you're fine...nothing wrong with a healthy debate..no one is out of line. All I'm saying is I am growing quite confident that that current in conjunction with other factors is going to foster a pattern in the higher latitudes that is absolutely independent of the strongest El Nino in history...not 'trump' it. Obviously much more in depth in a few weeks for those who have the time to delve in.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm going to pose this question again...which is rhetorical for me because I know the answer...identify the bonafide El Niño events with no MC forcing and a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ditched the MC idea over the summer...he misunderstood my post...in fact, the dearth of MC contribution is in integral part of my final thesis.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    It also extends further west...it's just more expansive and intense.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    No issue with that....December should be similar.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'v been saying that, but it either gets ignored, or someone will suggest that it's wrong.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did you read my post? I said, "then eliminate the ones with MC contribution".
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....about 150W....that is what was in the MC previously. I have a question for you guys..name me all of the El Niño events with a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan like we have now....then, once you do that, do me a solid and eliminate the ones with ample MC contribution and let me know the ultimate list. I think the folks whacking it to subsurface erotica need to remember that absolutely nothing operates in a vacuum...not even the most intense El Niño in history.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    We don't know how it's going to work out....maybe it won't end up mattering and the eastern convection will dominate for a 1997 replica, but I think ignoring alternative outcomes is silly. You can't just pretend the dual forcing isn't there on modeling.
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