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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Keep it in your pants...for now-
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had the second week of December as go-time in terms of snow for my area given analogs...still feel that way. It will be a slower than expected progression of the cold to the east given the RNA.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Far, far too much.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still don't buy the reversal.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    He seems like a tool-bag to me....like the Direct Weather bafoon.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am stunned 1995-1996 had a stronger than climo PV.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect something akin to Dec 2000 (ie no reversal, but significant SSW, nonetheless), which is the best general analog IMO.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Modoki.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It should. The conjecture about locking through January is silly.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only unusual element is in the event that the zonal wind actually reverses this early, which is still dubious IMHO. This is the latest example of how online forecasting is more geared towards attracting attention and generating revenue, as opposed to adding actual value.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Larry, what is the link to get that historical 60* mean zonal wind data? Thanks.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last year was close...I ultimately deemed it moderate after considering MEI and ONI. -1ish can go either way...if the RONI were like -1.3, then I would have called it moderate.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    They always get blown out of proportion. Indicative of the decay of society....increased proclivity towards instant gratification and shorter attention spans, decreased tendency towards delayed gratification and the ability to think critically. I would still bet against an actual reversal of the mean zonal wind.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I see a lot of January 2006 like jet extension...it was in my analog list.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree...I think December is colder than January.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I think RNA December, but January is the one +PNA month of the winter.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting take...I think that coincided with the nadir of the cold phase, too....starting to turn the corner a bit.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember that...it was all over the news...I was in HS.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    The PNA ridge got replaced with a deep trough...that will do it-
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    So is death, are you waiting for it with baited breath?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good luck down there this year, guys. I know many of @bluewave and @TheClimateChanger's posts are grating to read for a winter enthusiast, but the truth is that I think my work is much better for trying to make a more concerted effort to incorporate CC into the forecasts because there is no question it's having an impact. That doesn't mean you have to agree with 100% of their takes; I certainly don't, but tolerance for different viewpoints is the most powerful tool in anyone's arsenal.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Topped at out 37 here.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. I don't give regional specifics for your area, but you can deduce my thoughts based on the composites and such. In case you couldn't, "get nude" about somes it up-
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty clear it was over much more than Nov 11th. Agree that at least the first half of December looks good, but lets see it produce. There have been several "giddy up" patterns over the course of the past several years that just dissapointed.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Drought is inherently boring
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