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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. It could happen like that theoretically, but probably more changes incoming.
  2. Maybe it ends up missing, but I can tell you all of the pieces aren't nailed at this range...doesn't have to mean it shifts in our favor, but this isn't 100% accurate as modeled, either. Lots of elements interacting here.
  3. The only thing that has me bent over this month is the herniated disc I incurred from all of the shoveling....thanks, CC.
  4. It is, it's just an unwritten weenie rule to refrain from tossing out numbers at this point.
  5. I am working on an update and pulled up that graphic only to see tepid support, much to my chagrin...until I realized I had left the window open and was viewing guidance from the 16th. FYI, refreshing that page will not update it...need to manually set run if you leave it open. lol
  6. This would lend itself to a protracted, moderate event in all likelihood....boring AF.
  7. I've never seen so much long range NAM analysis and hedging.
  8. I wasn't there then, but I imagine it was worse. Regardless, it sucks now.
  9. Working on this in tandem with January wrap today.
  10. Snow growth should be better this weekend....it was lacking until that final stanza Monday night in this past event.
  11. Even that QPF chart, as is, argues for prolific deformation from like Steve up through my area here in the MRV....crude rule of thumb is right near the QPF gradient, which at this range is only detecting lower level forcing.
  12. Looks like 0.6" here? Do you slightly further N? TIA.
  13. I can tell you how I would cope if this ever missed...working in the the outskirts of Boston proper (Chelsea) is a logistical nightmare right now with all of the snow. It's really testing my resolve with regard to the snow obsession.
  14. I wonder if the CFS incorporates more of that analog data...no clue, just thinking out loud, as that would explain the violence.
  15. Well, it probably whiffed....not that it's beneath him.
  16. I think barring a significant regression, you can start tuning up the plows EOR because I don't see how this doesn't get banding well west of model depictions....again, assuming it doesn't verify further east.
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