40/70 Benchmark

Expounding on this point....December 1997 in one of the most intense, east-based El Nino events in recorded history, yet had a decent -NAO. Why? Take a look at where 1997 occurs in the solar cycle (left side of chart) in conjunction with a strong easterly QBO....your overreliance on ENSO as a modulator of the NAO is too reductive here, Chris. Now check where 2026 falls... And every other super-El Nino.... Why is blocking favored GENERALLY earlier during E QBO and later during W QBO? Holton-Tans relationship. Integrating Solar & QBO Research for a Comprehensive Polar Forecast The aforementioned Holton-Tan relationship, which dictates that an easterly QBO is correlated with both a greater incidence of, and an earlier development of SSW, becomes more complicated when considering the solar cycle. In some cases, when the QBO and solar cycle are in conflict, they can either over ride one another or even cancel each other out (Gray et al 2004). Here is a list of combinations and the theorized relationships for clarity. Solar min/W QBO: This is entirely consistent with the Holton-Tan relationship in that the westerly QBO essentially "wins". Solar max/W QBO: In this case, the Holton-Tan relationship is applicable early on in the season, as major warmings are unlikely. However, the Holton-Tan relationship reverses mid winter and the latter portion of the season from February onward is susceptible to warmings and major PV disruption. Winter 2024-2025 was a textbook example of this. Since winter 2026-2027 will occur in the descending phase between the max of solar cycle 25 and the min that will occur early next decade, each of these previous two scenarios warrant consideration with a preference for the former, solar min/W QBO data set given the geomagnetic energy is will likely be peaking during break winter 2026-2027, thus any SSW will likely be delayed until latter February, or more likely a final waring in March. This does NOT necessarily preclude the incidence of minor warming and/or tropospheric wave breaking earlier, though. Solar Min/E QBO: There are no inconsistencies here, as the entire season is more prone to polar vortex disruptions and SSW as per the Holton-Tan relationship. Solar Max/E QBO : The Holton-Tan relationship applies early on given that PV disruptions are likely in December, before the relationship reverses and they are less likely later in the season. The final warming is of course the exception to this rule, while it is usually more relevant for spring, it can and does sometimes occur early enough to have an impact for the major population centers in terms of late season cold and/or snowfall. Below are a couple of annotations to aide in the simplification and visualization of these relationships.

Yes, but you keep neglecting the fact that did in fact begin severely east-based. No, the stratospheric conditions were different due to the QBO (west this year and 1982, east in 1997) and the solar cycle (high and descending this year and 1982 versus low and ascending in 1997), not ENSO. I think there is some connection between ENSO and the solar cycle on a larger scale, which is why the most intense El Nino events usually coincide with descending solar, post max, but it's more solar driving ENSO, not vice versa ENSO orientation does have some direct impact on the NAO, but it's more Modoki that specifically favors -NAO....basin-wide is more variable and depends on other extraneous factors, such as the strat, and solar cycle. No guidance forecasts the warm pool to near the Mexican coast....if you have anything that does, then by all means...present it. Could it make it further east than all guidance currently depicts, sure....not I doubt it's off by that much. Guidance places forcing in a very similar spot to 1983 despite any disparity in the orientation of El Nino in the respective of years bc of where that pool of 30c+ water resides. .

There is a reason why 2023 had MC forcing despite having record anomalies in region 4.....warm pool was in the west Pac. This year, record anomalies are over eastern ENSO, but the warm pool is in the western half of ENSO. Look at where the seasonal models place the forcing...no shock.

1982 was very east-based early in the season, as well. The forecast is more east-based in terms of SSTs mid-season, but I don't know how much that will matter given the warm pool in the central Pacific. A large reason why 1997 was better early and 1982 was better later was the stratosphere.

My guess on Friday before this got going was just under 2" in total here, but I should sneak just over that.

Wow...sharp cut-off around this area over the weekend....I'm not far from MHT at all.

In case there was any doubt as to where the west Pacific warm pool has migrated.....

I would have lost my mind if this were winter. Puts a dent in the drought up here. but definitely doesn't entirely alleviate it.

This is a stronger version of 1982 with the main difference being the warm pool east of Japan, hence the lower PDO....But QBO, solar, east-based super El Nino trying to shift more basin-wide mid season and the secondary 1.2 peak. Elite analog...about as good as it gets.

Repeat of the blizzard...same spots hammered, same spots T-boned. TBH, I'm just fine with expending this bullet from the chamber now, in the early autumn.

1.06" rainfall on the day in Methuen. .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 3-day event total of 1.67"

The JJA summer composite was not El Nino like, but August was.

NBD here...pretty boring.

I had .61" event total as of midnight. .03" Friday and .58" yesterday.

Man, Cosgrove sounds aggressive....have 2014 a shoutout.

Yea, MC is going down...pretty clear.

100% dead-on. ...I just hit on all of that in he piece I just published...competing convective forcing nodes....one in the central Pacific in association with the western warm pool that was dislodged eastward, and one with the El Niño....we are now rooting for the same warm pool that we have spent the better part of a decade cursing out.

Good....not bad timing for a deviation from warm ENSO climo, especially a record one.

Lots to unpack in this final El Niño update before the main Outlook in about 6 weeks time, but this weekend's major east coast storm may be a sign of what is to come. Here is one excerpt to provide a bit of a sneak-preview: A diligent forecaster that has engaged in an exhaustive analysis of the data will be acutely aware of the fact that the pattern across the hemisphere has grown much more representative of a healthy El Nino during the month of August. A forecaster of this ilk would position oneself to also be aware of a potential mid-season shift westward in the orientation of an El Nino that absolutely presents as east-based in the mean; not to mention a winter season that was exceptionally mild overall in the midst of a rapidly warming climate, yet managed to facilitate shorter-term unions between the arctic branch and the most impressive subtropical jet ever observed to author one of the more scintillating chapters in meteorological lore- https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/record-el-nio-poised-to-trigger-potential-longer-term-change-throughout-pacific-/#

Lots to unpack in this final El Niño update before the main Outlook in about 6 weeks time, but this weekend's major east coast storm may be a sign of what is to come. Here is one excerpt to provide a bit of a sneak-preview: A diligent forecaster that has engaged in an exhaustive analysis of the data will be acutely aware of the fact that the pattern across the hemisphere has grown much more representative of a healthy El Nino during the month of August. A forecaster of this ilk would position oneself to also be aware of a potential mid-season shift westward in the orientation of an El Nino that absolutely presents as east-based in the mean; not to mention a winter season that was exceptionally mild overall in the midst of a rapidly warming climate, yet managed to facilitate shorter-term unions between the arctic branch and the most impressive subtropical jet ever observed to author one of the more scintillating chapters in meteorological lore- https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/record-el-nio-poised-to-trigger-potential-longer-term-change-throughout-pacific-/#

I didn't need a blizzard to feel this way.

Imagine doing that with 100lbs of equipment under the stressful conditions in which they completed that task...

Awesome.

You mean impressive wind will be confined to the cape?? I had a great inside tip from my pal, climo....should have listened; dude knows his stuff-

Perhaps a few smashed pumpkins as they prep the razor blades for the trick or treat candy....