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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    See, I think this is where YOU are being too literal....replay that season 100x, and I'd be willing to bet Baltimore doesn't get consecutive 3' events. This is like saying that some NAO blocking in 2015 would have gotten Boston 120" in month instead of 100". I think that is far too reductive and Linear a thought process.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this is where putting down the calculator and being more pragmatic has some utility.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I highly doubt the warmth would have remained that related to the west had it grown that potent. I think going high on snowfall is ridiculous....that was such an anomalous outcome.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    If 2009 were 2.2 or 2.3 instead of 1.6, I think that would have had a significant impact...yes.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd take 82-83 or 23-24 over 2009-2010 any day. I get what you are saying, though...it was flukey that it was that bad here...blocking was so extreme.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it sucked as it was where I am...so not a big leap. Do I think DC would have still had 75" or whatever? No, I don't.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh in that case, I'd love to relive it and spike my nerf football.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, not far, but not ideal....and couldn't catch a break.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Goes hand-in-hand...weaker overall would have likely diminished the degree of warmth that leaked east.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, it had some favorable traits.....it was basin-wide, not east based, but if it were a bit weaker we may have been able to prevent that warmth in the east that ultimately sank our battle ship. There was probably some bad luck there, too....so I see what you are saying about being too literal. I probably oversimplified it due to the perfunctory nature of the dialogue to prove a point. I'm more nuanced in the actual analysis.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I will grant you that 1991 could have ended up a but better than it did, but there was definitely still a god bit of warmth to the east that raised the probability of the shit outcome that we had.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I said, too much warmth.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....events that strong always have warmth in region 1.2. Okay.....I get that. But that doesn't make me wrong....good luck getting one that doesn't.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a composite only a mother could love.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exceptionally strong....I don't argue 1.5-2.0 can be favorable.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe I'm wrong...but until I see data to the contrary, I will feel as though extremely strong ENSO is hostile for high latitude blocking.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....on average.....exceptionally strong events aren't average.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I'm not "stuck"....what I do know is there is literal dearth of high latitude blocking when ENSO is exceptionally powerful, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Okay, the sample size is small....but it still is what it is.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would prefer it a bit weaker...but I don't doubt we could have had a good interlude(s) if the polar domain were not so hostile. I compare all of these analogs with a fine-tooth comb this summer and fall.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree 100%.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Orientation doesn't matter much for weak events, either.....much more disparity in weak events....ie east-based events that were colder, and west-based that were warmer.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not counting one KU in the mid Atlantic....I mean above average snowfall throughout the NE and colder than average.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's a combination of the fact that there is so much excess heat in extreme warm ENSO, and it impacts the Atlantic STJ in such a manner that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. I'd have to look back at the research to double check..been a minute.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I knew you would call sample size Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate.
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