40/70 Benchmark

Exactly, but not huge amounts IMO.

Good luck.

I could even see that within our area...CT crew spiking while it's crap here.

Frankly, I can't wait for it to pass so we can place the focus on the real potential next week.

I could see something like this past weekend....but I think that is pretty much the ceiling. Be careful about people saying they think "it's coming north" because there is going to be some miscommunication. I envision a scenario where someone claims victory over a 5" snowfall, and then weenies are like "bust". If this thing gets up here, it's not going to be 20-30" like down in VA.

IOW, we just don't know?

Change your screen name to Sugarloaf1996

Verification of Sunday Night-Early Monday Snowfall Decent But Flawed Forecast Effort Here are the verified region wide snowfall amounts for the storm that concluded on Monday morning versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call map issued on Saturday. There were three primary issues with the forecast map. 1) 4-7" would have been a more appropriate range as opposed to the 3-6" range that was selected. 2) This 4-7" range should have encompassed the entire 2-4" area over Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, out to about the mid cape. This is because the system became slightly more intense and tracked a bit further east than implied, which resulted in greater dynamics and more snowfall over this area. 3) Finally, the Western cut off should have been slightly more abrupt, thus the 1-3" should have extended back near the Connecticut River. FINAL GRADE: B-

Verification of Sunday Night-Early Monday Snowfall Decent But Flawed Forecast Effort Here are the verified region wide snowfall amounts for the storm that concluded on Monday morning versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call map issued on Saturday. There were three primary issues with the forecast map. 1) 4-7" would have been a more appropriate range as opposed to the 3-6" range that was selected. 2) This 4-7" range should have encompassed the entire 2-4" area over Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, out to about the mid cape. This is because the system became slightly more intense and tracked a bit further east than implied, which resulted in greater dynamics and more snowfall over this area. 3) Finally, the Western cut off should have been slightly more abrupt, thus the 1-3" should have extended back near the Connecticut River. FINAL GRADE: B-

Imagine if this had happened 40 years ago, before the Hadley Cell swallowed the world....that 30" in VA would be in GA!!!

This wasn't strong.

NYC, LI....maybe south coast. Outside shot up to the pike.

No, the northern edge of the heavy snow.

Quantify "have"....

Well, the PNA is a fairly stochastic index, so it probably have something to do with variability.....regardless of ENSO, that index in only going to remain pinned in one direction for so long before it corrects in the other direction. That information, coupled with the tendency for only month to be PNA even during this potent cold phase over the past several years led me to go +PNA this January and call BS when guidance was RNA.

Problem is that some like Tony feel that as though they have a license to spew nonsense because the pattern is evolving in a cold and snowy manner.

Why are you so out of touch with reality?

No, you haven't.

Tony is right for the wrong reason. This pattern has zero to do with La Nina weakening, which it's doing at a climo rate...no "collapse"....this is happening because we have a stratosphere predisposed to major disruptions given the state of the QBO overlaid onto the progression of the solar cycle, in conjunction with an east-biased La Nina of modest intensity.

I think it's pretty clear that it's not at this point. You don't get an epic mid atl stretch in latter January in a canonical front loaded La Nina winter. I think it's time to let that go.

I think it will be like January in that it will start cold the first week and then moderate for the middle third....then we see what the strat does.

The gradient on the 00z Euro reminds of of January 96...not as sharp, but location of it.

I would love to turn this into a Monday deal...hold that shit back and then phase it in to gobble up a shitty Monday. SNE had a history with nice storm's on Monday ; )

No problem for you.

He did say that was possible.