40/70 Benchmark

I still like my one-and-done map from the weekend.

I'll tell you what, I may have missed the mark on my first two-week KU window...I went with a slight chance Dec 1-15 out deference to 1981, but if I were to do it right now, I would tab about Jan 8-22, or 10-24th....others have mentioned this time frame, and I could see a phase-changer to herald in my +TNH regime. BAM tossed out Dec 30,2000 and Jan 7, 1996 (displaced north and probably not as excessive) as potential analogs and they were both seasons were in my package (the former is the main analog).

I don't think so....not with the PV on our side of the hemisphere. We would get some warm days, but there would always be cold spells in the wake of storms. Would probably suck for snow, though.

I certainly didn't expect big blocking late December...welcome deviation if that comes to fruition.

It's also into the holiday break period now, too....so folks may not be up at 6am.

Was probably Tbliz lol

Weekends I always am, but only post if it's very interesting.

It takes a special set of circumstances for me to be up for the EURO on weeknights these days, at 45 with 4 little ones.....

I'd hit it-

I haven't put much effort into whether or not we trend colder in the shorter term (don't really care), but expect this Pacific trough regime to last into mid January before the flip, which is consistent with his timeframe. It's important to keep in mind that the Pacific trough regime doesn't have to mean an all out torch, which some may be conditioned to believe. BAM is right about the PV being on our side of the hemisphere, so that would help to mitigate that.

Great video by BAM....only point I am at odds with him is the PNA for January, but that is probably a bigger deal for the mid Atlantic than my area.

Agree on the Jan 15-Feb 1 timeframe.

925 looks cold enough for a lot of the region, so if there's decent growth and some consistency with halfway decent rates, it should be okay.

I think the +TNH will run a bit into Feb before we get very mild and await the stratosphere.

Sure...reasonable.

That guidance shows it essentially neutralizing by January 5th...pop a +TNH mid-month....done.

Yes, there is.

This area has a tendency to get 7/11 split as it pertains to latitude.

My area will get it...no doubt.

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence.

Still doesn't adress why we need thr warm pook to move east to get +TNH.

I haven't looked, but any difference in strength is trivial...if anything, this year ENSO should be more favorable because last year was a Modoki, as opposed to east-central this year. Additionally, the hallmark of the west warm pool has been a consistent strongly +WPO due to the cold being bottled up near Siberia....thia year we have seen a reprieve from that for the first time since 2021-2022, which is the only season to not feature a +WPO in the DM seasonal mean since 2016. His stance is utterly nonsensical, and reeks of "well my stance wasn't right, so no winter for anyone ".

Yes, that part of his post doesn't make much sense. I have no idea why the west warm pool is all of a sudden going to become prohibitive to +TNH...it never has been, and given that we are very likely to average -WPO this season, it's unlikely to start this year. He also says we will need a SSW to avoid an early end to winter....probably true, but if you look at the east-leaning cool ENSO/strong easterly QBO/high solar data set, it would be very surprising if we didn't get one. I feel like he is overcompensating a bit here because he essentially called for a drastic change in that the warm pool would translate east, which isn't happening.

This is exactly why I am saying that you don't use them to forecast.....consider them as either confirmation or a voice of dissent. IDC what the weeklies do, or how much they waffle.....my money has been on a pretty strong PV throughout a good portion of January since last fall.

I don't understand why he feels as though the warm pool needs to shift to allow for +TNH??? We have had intervals of it in this regime previously both last year and in 2022 ... The data indicates that -WPO this severe in December is very likely to yield a -WPO in the seasonal mean moving forward, furthermore, we haven't had sn issue establishing -EPO ridges in this west warm pool regime.