40/70 Benchmark

I haven't put much effort into whether or not we trend colder in the shorter term (don't really care), but expect this Pacific trough regime to last into mid January before the flip, which is consistent with his timeframe. It's important to keep in mind that the Pacific trough regime doesn't have to mean an all out torch, which some may be conditioned to believe. BAM is right about the PV being on our side of the hemisphere, so that would help to mitigate that.

Great video by BAM....only point I am at odds with him is the PNA for January, but that is probably a bigger deal for the mid Atlantic than my area.

Agree on the Jan 15-Feb 1 timeframe.

925 looks cold enough for a lot of the region, so if there's decent growth and some consistency with halfway decent rates, it should be okay.

I think the +TNH will run a bit into Feb before we get very mild and await the stratosphere.

Sure...reasonable.

That guidance shows it essentially neutralizing by January 5th...pop a +TNH mid-month....done.

Yes, there is.

This area has a tendency to get 7/11 split as it pertains to latitude.

My area will get it...no doubt.

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence.

Still doesn't adress why we need thr warm pook to move east to get +TNH.

I haven't looked, but any difference in strength is trivial...if anything, this year ENSO should be more favorable because last year was a Modoki, as opposed to east-central this year. Additionally, the hallmark of the west warm pool has been a consistent strongly +WPO due to the cold being bottled up near Siberia....thia year we have seen a reprieve from that for the first time since 2021-2022, which is the only season to not feature a +WPO in the DM seasonal mean since 2016. His stance is utterly nonsensical, and reeks of "well my stance wasn't right, so no winter for anyone ".

Yes, that part of his post doesn't make much sense. I have no idea why the west warm pool is all of a sudden going to become prohibitive to +TNH...it never has been, and given that we are very likely to average -WPO this season, it's unlikely to start this year. He also says we will need a SSW to avoid an early end to winter....probably true, but if you look at the east-leaning cool ENSO/strong easterly QBO/high solar data set, it would be very surprising if we didn't get one. I feel like he is overcompensating a bit here because he essentially called for a drastic change in that the warm pool would translate east, which isn't happening.

This is exactly why I am saying that you don't use them to forecast.....consider them as either confirmation or a voice of dissent. IDC what the weeklies do, or how much they waffle.....my money has been on a pretty strong PV throughout a good portion of January since last fall.

I don't understand why he feels as though the warm pool needs to shift to allow for +TNH??? We have had intervals of it in this regime previously both last year and in 2022 ... The data indicates that -WPO this severe in December is very likely to yield a -WPO in the seasonal mean moving forward, furthermore, we haven't had sn issue establishing -EPO ridges in this west warm pool regime.

If you are basing analysis off of the weekly output, I get it...all I'm saying is they are probably right given the Pacific trough regime that has become established and a probable reflection event looming later in January. I like to use those as probabilistic tools, rather than deterministic.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/white-christmas-likely-for-portion-of.html FIRST & FINAL WHITE XMAS CALL:

White Christmas Likely For Portion Of The Area Weak System Impact On Tuesday Synoptic Overview It now appears as though the possibility of a White Christmas has increased for at least a portion of the area, despite Friday's "Grinch" storm having scoured the region of any residual snowpack. This is due to a weak system that will break off of the Pacific energy out west during the day on Tuesday and subsequently slide to the east-southeast in the flow between the polar vortex and central US ridge. Although this energy will begin to amplify upon reaching the coast as it descends the eastern periphery of the ridge, it will do so too far to the east to produce a significant storm for the forecast area. Had this ridge been centered a at the longitude of Montana as opposed to Minnesota, far greater travel disruptions would be likely given that a faster rate of amplification would yield a much more significant storm further to the west, and closer to the coast. While that will not be the case, a period light snowfall will leave light accumulations across especially the interior. However, the track of the system will be to the north of the area prior to a full transfer to the coast, which will allow winds to switch to the south. This will eventually induce a transition to rainfall prior to precipitation ending Tuesday evening across much of the coastal plain, which will obviously affect which locales manage to observe a White Christmas (1" or greater of snow on the ground at 7am Christmas morning). Anticipated Storm Evolution Light Snow will begin overspread the western half of the area during Tuesday morning and reach all but the eastern third of the area by midday. The morning commute should be fine given the late start of the snowfall, meager intensity and the reduced volume of traffic given the holiday period, however, commuters in Connecticut may be wise to leave some extra time, especially southwestern areas. The south coast of Connecticut will have transitioned to rain b early evening, as the storm begins to intensify and the storm moves closer to peak across the area, which will slow a Tuesday afternoon commute that will likely already have a heavier volume owed to holiday traffic. The storm will begin to redevelop off of the coast by midnight into the early predawn hours of Christmas Eve, but not before precipitation ends as rain roughly inside of I 495. Snow and rain showers will taper off during the predawn hours on Christmas Eve, with the first light yielding a festive blanket of white across the interior, a barren, puddle-filled earth near the coast. Stay tuned for more information on what maybe a similar system on Boxing Day. FIRST & FINAL WHITE XMAS CALL:

You get 4", and I'll send everyone on this forum a Xmas card with me wearing nothing but one of your skin tight vests with a turtle neck.

ICON looks pretty good up here.

This graphic epitomizes the past 7 years for me....I reside right under that "x"....

It moved north...actually a bit better than 12z for MBY.

Still learning...the awful forecasts are very instructive.

Doubt at your own peril.