40/70 Benchmark

Then do it if it gets them to spend.

I'm thrilled it doesn't look like last year.

March 2001 is another great analog.....maybe March 2023 with a less hostile Pacific.

Instantly top of my list.

I do have some glimmer of hope that selling the Pens will afford them a bit more investment in the Sox, but they will probably just pocket it and buy giant golden dildos for their wives-

I hear the wind really picking up at my office in Chelsea, right down the street from KBOS.

I think John Henry purchased the atmosphere to replace the Penguins in the FSG portfolio..... #interestkings

And Red Sox acqusitions.

I think @512high Phil is the only person that religiously follows my content I'm okay with it....I do it for myself, for the most part.....to keep learning and maintain my writing skills.

I have an extremely meager following....don't get me wrong, I'm sure some it is because of how outdated my blogger medium is, as pope has so eloquently and gracefully pointed out on several occasions....but I think it's also because I pride myself on objectivity. I completely ignore threats that some of these dopes use to generate thousands of clicks. I think a lot of my stuff isn't very digestible for the laymen, as well..especially my outlooks. They are long and academic, which is a turn off today...society doesn't want to think critically, or focus for protracted periods of time. They want a pretty picture that strokes their primal weather schlong in short order.

Yea, I think the rest of 2025 and for the most part, the first half of January are mild, and hostile to major east coast snow. Maybe the NE sneaks in some SWFE's/overrunning.

You should, though...it needs it.

I get the argument against persistence forecasting, but independent of that, I have explained in great detail why I expected December to warm up.

Well, there was reason to doubt that cold guidance for latter December....not to mention we have become conditioned to expect the less appealing outcomes over the course of the past 7 years.

We'll see what happens. I still think we go +TNH in mid January, but I am admittedly less confident on that than I was the mid December flip to warmer.

Of course it did, because it's cutting....but if it were a coastal, all we would here about is Tip lecturing everyone on how the fast flow from CC would yield in a shearing of the wave in the lead up to verification.

You always CAD well.

Still early, but so far my biggest error is mixing up the WPO and EPO....I did the same thing last year. Those are tough to call on a seasonal scale.

Yup...but the 50+/50+ is what absolutely eviscerates it in short order.

Perhaps AI could assist?

I also do get that it's viable weather and folks take an interest in it.....so it should have a thread allocated for that DISCO, so we don't have to split conjecture about whether it will ever snow again.

Mid January is the next window....+TNH will be the vehicle for change if my idea is right, followed by big strat disruption in February to set up for an interesting finish.

It's because they are going by guidance. This is the benefit of putting in the work all summer and fall to develop your own seasonal paradigm...are you right 100% of the time? God, no....but you become more adept at thinking critically and aren't enslaved to capricious and inaccurate long range guidance. When you are wrong, you grow from it if you put in the effort to understand why.

Wow, who could have seen this coming....(looks in mirror and raises hand)-

Especially Moregarbage....he kept pointing out the 4 members of the EPS that supported a reversal around Xmas like 2 weeks ago, and was like "models are beginning to come around to the SSW I expect around Xmas". I replied something to the effect..."zero chance. Wait for February".