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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is somewhat anecdotal, but the fact that 1997-1998 was extremely east-based and wasn't a severely +NAO supports your postulation.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just went through the numbers on the intense composite, which is mostly east-based....it's like .67 NAO for DJFM...nothing obscene. AO is is just about neutral.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This year is kind of the inverse of that, which is why I think we have a shot for something decent....there is a TON of warmth, but there is more to the west than 1997 and 1982....however, the warm pool is def. getting further east than 2023, so I feel like we will get some periods of Modoki forcing with less MC competition.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I figured there was something missed. Yes. It's not JUST about strength.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Theoretically speaking, if we venture to the land of make believe, and pull off a 3.2 ONI that is just about void of warmth in regions 1.2 and 3, then sure.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    You aren't getting what I'm saying. We aren't going to get an event that powerful that doesn't leak into the east. Find an example.....I'll give you a lifetime...go. 2009 is the closest, but not to that magnitude.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    It absolutely does in a sense because good luck keeping the warmth out of the eastern ENSO region in an event of this magnitude.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, but there is more warmer water further west than that year.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    If anything, -PDO would make it warmer and drier....that isn't a driver of cold in the NE.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS and JMA have a Modoki look, which I don't recall seeing on guidance in 2023. I don't think there is any way in hell we get that in the seasonal mean given the magnitude of this event, but I also wouldn't ignore it altogether. We should see some variability.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember I pointed this out last spring and got roasted for it.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good analogy....Snowfall won't prevent a cutter, but it can delay/retard the warming perhaps even trigger the development of a triple point low, while the upper levels still flood with warmth. Difference here is the lower levels are most responsive to ENSO, and it's actually the upper levels that lag.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that competing MC forcing has shifted that big ridge eastward, into se Canada and the northeastern CONUS.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Depends what happens during the -NAO periods.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe it eventually becomes more east-based given how far east the warm pool is relative to other events, but right now at the surface this is clearly basin-wide and not as east-based as 1997. I have posted the weekly figures. It's similar to 2015. Do I think that this really matters? No, there is so much warm water throughout the ENSO basin. This all screams "variable pattern that is warm in the seasonal mean" to me.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Clearly my early hunch was wrong, as is often the case.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    They are touting the pattern in the composite of Super El Nino events as being comparable to the precursor pattern in SSW events, which when combined with W QBO favors a warming in January or February. While I agree that any warming will be during the second half, I can't help but question why we haven't actually seen any SSW during super El Nino events, despite the similarity to the precursor pattern....then don't address that. They are also focusing on the low arctic sea ice as a big factor to predisposing the PV to disruption.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, last year was still close enough to the max that geomagnetic energy, which lags max by a couple of years and is most highly correlated with +NAO, hadn't really kicked in yet. My solar composite (top right) looked like the rest of my composites last year, which resembled the ultimate pattern.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    This goes along with the blocky March theme that I just mentioned....
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Severe Weather Weenie Europe really beating the disturbed PV drum for next winter.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll have a blog update within the next few days, followed by an ENSO update next week.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've come up with 6 Solar analogs and 5/6 averaged positive NAO in the seasonal mean (one was very slightly negative), 3/6 had at least one month between DJFM that averaged -NAO and it looks as though the strongest signal is March. My money is on Chuck's formula shifting more positive from here on out, but I don't expect it to be an overwhelming signal, like last year.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the heat in the Pacific is going to be the main driver one way or another this winter for sure.....agree on that.
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