40/70 Benchmark

If you guys recall, the 2023-2024 winter (last season) had a lot of similaraities to the 1972-1973 strong el Nino (during the previous secondary PAC cold phase peak) in the sense that it was competing with the MC forcing.....though obviously it was much warmer given CC.

Hopefully you feel better soon, but don't rush to retrieve the snow maps if you are.

Maybe I am wrong on this and we revert back to a sustained Pacific cold phase, but even if this is a head fake, I think we are nearing the end. We will see....I think we will get the answer to some of these debates I have been having with Chris conerning over the next few years.

Chris, I remember your research quite well and referenced it in my own work.....you keep saying that you expected the steep seasonal positive PNA that ultimately materialized, but my issue with that is that none of those seasons you referenced had a large +PNA in the DM seasonal mean. You don't seem to acknowledge the fact that this was not a one or two month deviation from the MC forcing like the examples that you referenced....but this was a complete flip that has lasted just about the whole season. I feel like its a little disingenous to claim victory based off the fact that you expected a deviation....this wasn't a +PNA interlude....it was a stronly +PNA season the likes of which we have not seen since the super el Nino of 2015. This seems more like a larger scale transition to me, as opposed to an intraseasonal variation. 2020-2021 DM PNA: +.12 2021-2022 DM PNA: -.19 2010-2011 DM PNA: -.35 2017-2018 DM PNA: -.16 2024-2025 DJ PNA: +1.38 and February was quite positive. I know as far as I am concerned, I expected a one or two month devation during a season that would either average negative or near neutral....Jan 2022 was my preferred character of deviation, but if I'm being honest with myself, that is not what this was. I also did not expected a colder than average season (yes, 1991-2020) and if I am not mistaken, you were not either, but apoloigies in advance if your were and I am misinterpreting.

So hasn't everything besides the GFS.

He has to be the largest imbecile within weather circles that I have seen on the internet, and there is some stiff competition.

Sorry, @Heisynothing personal at all....but 3 months of this and its like a horror movie on rewind. This season can't cease to exist quickly enough.

Who gives a rat's ass what the s stream does if the N stream doesn't catch it.

Enough with the steps, dude...we've walked around the globe this season with all of the steps. We're looking for a blizzard, not a fu(king fitbit. Steps aren't good enough...useless.

Yup. Unless it pulls a JMA circa Feb 2006

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Get the EURO suite to look like that and I'll grab the laptop.

GEFS looks like they will end up similarly, but slighly more progressive.

I have no complaints about the ridge on this GFS suite.

Yup...just being negative.

That is actually pretty ominous mean at hr 135....

How hygenic

GEFS def. seem more intense with the s stream for whatever that is worth.

First we need to figure out if anyone knows. There is a chance they do, but its also possible no one does....

GFS has a much greater poleward extension of the PNA ridge....good luck getting a great PNA ridge this season. Its sabotaged everything all year.

Each day closer to spring is a positive step.

It wasn't mild by 1991-2020 modern climo, but I think by all past climo it was. Anyway, we go by latest climo period, so it was cold.

It really wasn't that cold, though....just relative to what we've become accustomed to....a la 1991-2020 climo. It was consistently moderately cold.

MJO's tongue is already hanging out of his cruiser.