40/70 Benchmark

If GFS holds at 00z and Euro makes a concerted move westward, I'll be intrigued.

Less consolidated clustering....not the goal of ensemble forecasting.

He doesn't do that anymore now that he's north of 50yrs old and south of 130lbs...snow blows. I do it, though...neighbors are in awe.

I know you aren't a jack queen, but 'cmon....you wouldn't be the least bit frustrated at DC getting 40" and you getting 10? Don't bullshit me...you would secretly sneak out to the kennel and kick a puppy.

"We made a very competitive offer, but at the end of the day it takes two to tango.... it's not so much about how much money is spent, but about getting creative to field the best roster you can"

Interesting....but need you tell me more tonight.

This.....all of this. I linked the 2/1 event on my blog concerning this threat on Tuesday.

It's not been snowy for much of the area...it's near climo.

It's a bargaining/acceptance attempt.

Yea, recent winters rusty coat hanger-back-alley-slum style

No EURO reports? I thought it made some pissah moves at H5....

Maybe, but waaaaay down on my list.

Yea, large market New Foundland Dodgers.

And CoastalWx knows this all to well!!

You mean there's still a chance? What trends do we need to look for? "Well look, if the storm wanted to be here... (pregnant pause) it would be here".

Similar to sports...atmoaphere is run by John Henry lately.

GYC

All of the above. AOTB

Eh....thanks, but I'm good

Does this look familiar? Ocean Storm Poised To Brush Region On Sunday-Sunday Night Accumulations Largely Limited To Cape & Islands It appeared on Monday as though the second major winter storm within a week may impact the area with heavy snows, however, it now appears as though the region will be largely spared. Synoptic Overview The ingredients for major storm are still indeed brewing tonight. The two systems are still expected to phase over the Tennessee Valley this weekend, which makes for an ominous set up if one were to take a cursory glance at the chart below. However, as the weekend unfolds, two elements conspire to facilitate a track largely out to sea despite what is prototypically an ideal western CONUS ridge placement for a major northeast US strike. First of all, there is a follow up "kicker" system dropping into the northern plains, which acts to force the lead storm to continue moving along before it can phase proficiently. This prevents the low from gaining as much latitude as it otherwise would have with a western ridge thought Idaho and Montana. Secondly, there is an area of lead convection well south of New England that works in conjunction with the aforementioned trailing kicker over the northern plains to bias the movement of the system on a more eastward trajectory than it otherwise would have given that western CONUS ridge position. Thus the system cannot gain enough latitude to have a major impact on the region. That being said, some significant snowfall cannot be ruled out over the cape and islands on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Expected Storm Evolution Light snows will overspread the cape and islands around midday on Sunday, and quickly grow moderately moderate in intensity on Nantucket Island. Snow may grow briefly heavy for a time on Nantucket Island, as snowfall grows more moderate over the rest of the cape. Light snow may develop back to the south shore of Boston with light accumulations. Windy conditions and some beach erosion are likely on cape cod and the islands, regardless of snowfall. Precipitation then pulls back out to sea later in the evening and ends by midnight. There could potentially be up to an inch or two of snowfall on the cape, islands and south shore, from a combination of the fringe of the storm and ocean effect snow.

YES...I have made this comparison probably at least a dozen times. Seen the movie play out this season before and it's a waste of time that I hope to withdraw from over the weekend.

1000%....I keep rolling my eyes at the "this whiff looks better aloft posts"...no offense, I'm sure it's perfectly sound and valid analysis by great mets and hobbyists alike, but that simply won't cut it. I said this earlier, but notice how all of the non-GFS guidance is a display of a thousand and one ways to miss...yea...they're different, and are waxing and waning....OFFSHORE. This isn't day 6.

Gonna guess the 12z EURO will be east of 06z, but west of 00z, but east of 18z, but west of 12z.....and not result in much snow here.

Two in diapers now, don't need to change mother nature this weekend.

This is what I think happens...it won't be sunny, but we'll end up with some sort of regurgitation of dynamics...throw a bib on mother nature, and then smear the content onto SNE.