40/70 Benchmark

LBSW...classic Miller A.

Brutal...it makes every moderately strong ENSO event unfavorable....Modoki La Nina to east-based El Nino..back and forth. Its the @snowman19oscillation. The warmth there and especially the West Pacific is killing us.....I wish the waters around the dateline would warm up.

I'm hoping for a 2007-2008 type of coutcome....fast-paced barrage of storms combined with warmth that wasn't prohibitive......caveat being I know it sucked south of about I-84.

I did, too....but heat underperformed a bit from original expectations.

I know CT has gotten crushed, but not much rain at all this month up here....lawn has slowed down as a result.

Opposite of yesterday.

The last few rain events have been like that...getting pretty dry up here.

Best matches to the MJ MEI value are 2007, 2008 and 2021, with the quick jump being most similar to 2007.

Could allow for some variability with respect to the WPO, thought it would still undoubtedly average positive with the West PAC so warm.

That was literally the only redeemable event in that god foresaken season.

Eh....depends. If they are really strong and east-based....but I will take my chances with a weaker El Nino that is biased west any day of the week over La Nina of any type as far as snowfall goes. I know its different down there. I don't give a rat's a$$ about the cold if it isn't going to snow...last season was awful. I would take any of the last several years over that.

Seriously, though....I know this doesn't just happen overnight....I'm sure that the processess that triggered that post 2015 warm pulse have been materializing for a few decades, but its more recntly that its manifested in a more pornounced and accelerated rate of CC.

Well, I noticed it was warming back in the 90s, if you really want to get technical. But I think most feel like it accelerated after that 2015 El Nino.

Well, the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters were both cold, which is why most consider the super El Nino of 2015 as being the catalyst.

Don't think so....bizarre way to celebrate summer-

I expect dews pretty much from now until September....maybe 3 or so days off along the way, but its dew season.

All I said was a break..I didn't say it would last.

95 here.

2011-2012 was awful.

Probably doesn't go out any further?

That looks more like the other guidance with the heat bottled up in the southern planes IVO Texas....more -EPO like. I buy that.

I feel pretty good about next season not being a complete blood bath is all I mean.

Just state with years lol I mentioned many....

I expect it to be warmer than last year, but not as warm as many of these seasons over the past decade...I don't think it will be prohibitively warm for a lot of us...but I also don't expect a predominate east coast storm track, either. I agree with Chris there.

Yes, they are heavily biased towards stock ENSO composites......and I know Chris called for the mismatch period, as did I, but I don't think anyone forecasted a +PNA and near normal temps in the seasonal mean....as impure as the PNA was at times being biased west and what not.... A mismatch period is one thing, but that just wasn't a warm winter per modern 1991-2020 climo I do think this trend is noteworthy despite the continued cool ENSO favor to the hemisphere...which is why I posted it. Not to claim its going to necessarily be cold.