40/70 Benchmark

The gateway to hell has seemed to be about Derry, NH....north of there, there is usually enough moisture and cold to snow....but south of there has perpetually lacked.

I think it looks good later this month for consistent winter with some warning events....I don't like it for huge snow bombs.

I will say, the ability of mother nature to cram every orifice from just about every angle with a multitude of home improvement appliances this decade has been impressive. La Nina (mostly), El Nino, -AO, +AO, - NAO, +NAO, +PNA, -PNA, +EPO, -EPO, -WPO, +WPO, cold, warm...the one constant has been a remarkable dearth of snowfall anywhere within about 50 miles of the ocean, east of I 495 and south of rt 2 in SNE. The only good news is that we have paid our dues.....20's, 50's, 80's, 2020's......get it out of the way now and hopefully not have to grab my ankles for 10 consecutive years again until I'm no longer lucid enough to realize how badly it sucks.

Jesus...most deterministic guidance (I know) has about 1-2" of snowfall here through the 20th....if that were to ever happen, it's going to be difficult to reach climo around here....that would put me at around 10" approaching February.

I got 11" of sand, but same diff...I feel ya.

Totally fair.

This pattern is the worst now that Xmas is over.....you can F right off with the 1/4" every couple of days and cold, windy weather....it's just a giant PIA and am glad it's warming up.

That about sums it up-

@NoCORH4LI expect a big stratosphere disruption in early to mid February. Take a look at March 2023, 2018 and 2001...

Gladly take it....this pattern has made me nauseous...cold and windy and a steady dose of 1/4" clippers. Wipe that shit out.

@qg_omega

Yea, we'll see......I'm talking like a KU type...not a 6-12" coastal. Not complaining, BTW...just saying-

I'm sure La Nina's influence has definitely peak and is starting to wane...so maybe a bit less resistance to more favorable outcomes, but not like it's the primary driver....+TNH is not uncommon in La Niña seasons.

Yea, I get what he's saying...those changes aren't really impacting the pattern this winter IMO.

We should get a window for a bigger strike in early March.

It's going to be lose...that isn't a 2022-2023 Baja trough.

That is the type of pattern where you get a slew of moderate SWFEs and redevelopers...not a big dog set up with that gradient.

Next spring is when El Nino starts to drive the bus.

I don't think so...RONI and MEI are still safely negative....GLAAM only approaches neutral next month. It's more the +TNH that will save February...a la 2014.

March 1984 and January 1987 were no slouches...December 1981 for a lot of e MA...of course April 1982, Wolfie's fav ...

I agree...I do think the +TNH can carry over, though...maybe some misattribution going on if we get the colder Feb.

I actually explicitly said this was to be expected in my seasonal outlook when noting this tendency the past several years.

I have February colder than January with +TNH from January carrying over and acting as precursor pattern fowmr wave 2 PV split to set up March.

Did it ever occur to you that I may have not viewed that random post from 4 weeks ago?

Ugh No thanks