40/70 Benchmark

Yes....weaker El Nino/more N stream dominant with perhaps less NAO blocking.

I probably have the low end of that in my yard, so makes sense being a bit south of them.

I also understand that it would be a CC modulated version of a 60's pattern, as well.....understand that is a tacit implication when I say "60's pattern".

I think more like 80s for the next few years until we get past the elevated geomagnetic energy and solar winds in the immediate aftermath of solar max, then maybe more like 60s towards the turn of the decade, closer to solar min. This is why I feel like next winter maybe Pacific driven without much NAO blocking, which would favor the northern mid atl and New England. It depends on how quickly we fade from max....we could sneak in one more season before geomag kicks up.

I think next season is slam dunk for a good winter if we get warm ENSO...especially for the northeast.

Interesting that the only two stronger PNAs were a super El Nino, and an El Nino in the precipice of transition from long term Pacific cold phase to warm phase. I find the latter intriguing.

Need to get Steve on it...some lips n hips.

Once spring hits, you know the moisture train will commence.

Yea, while I'm sure the storm day mean temp is somewhat correlated to the mean seasonal temp, its obviously not a perfect 1 correlation so the storm track is what matters in the end......that obviously determines the crucal storm day temp. It isn't just a thermal issue, either....to get those 50"+ upper tier seasons in NYC, you need at least one large event or two and you aren't getting huge dumps with the mid levels lows to your west. Even if the low levels remain cold, you don't want the mid levels drying out and/or warming.

I would honestly take last year over this, too...snowfall was about the same, retention was much better this season, but last year had by far the best storm for me....which is what I weight heavily.

Only a week and a half until the big storm!

Yea, the one last month was born of low level, tropospheric processes and worked its way upward, which is why the effect was instant.

Oh, well in that case, let me recontemplate the meaning of life.

Yea, I don't believe he's serious.

You should go rest if you bought that.

Hard to bet in favor of that, but I wouldn't be surprised at this point.

Poor Wolfie...having his one cold winter in a decade snatched from him.

Have the ham radio at the ready.

I had +2 to +4 for DM. Hopefully March corrects back a bit warmer.

Right....temps didn't, but every form of unsavory storm track did.

The cutters and southern storms have.

The difficult thing with analogs is finding their value...sometimes I feel as though coming up with the list of analogs is the easy part, but discerning which aspect of each year will offer insight into the coming season is the true challenge. I had 1999-2000 is a pretty strong analog, most notably for the late SSW, but as it turned out, it also had a record +PNA for a February La Nina and was right around transiton from a predominately -PDO to +PDO. 2014 was all about January for me.

Yea, that is all I am saying...as far as any CC induced modifications to the next Pacific warm phase, we are just going to have to wait and see. I obviously expect this warm phase to produce a milder outcome than the last one...without question.

That is the result I got with respect to my forecast, too....I was too warm, but largely got the snowfall right. I see what you are saying concerning the actual pattern, but at the end of the day, I think its important to incoporate the actual data and its reflective of change. Sure, snowfall didn't work out for the northeast, but I think it was clear that change is afoot given the turn of events in other regions.