Winter Coming to a Close Despite Expected Late Stratospheric Warming
Final Stratospheric Warming Too Late for Much Fanfare as Per Analogs
Analog Data of Great Utility
The EasternMassWeather March preview cited last fall's research of solar max/westerly QBO seasons as support for an early spring Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that would occur too late to have major ramifications in terms of winter weather for the forecast area. The March 20, 2000 SSW and resultant displacement of the polar vortex was listed as a primary analog last fall and guidance has continued hone in on a very similar stratospheric evolution throughout the first half of the month of March.
Accordingly, the resultant weather pattern over the arctic if forecast to respond in a similarly like manner to latter March 2000.
Late March Blocking Likely to Interrupt Pleasant Spring Onset
The weather pattern next week looks seasonably mild and relatively pleasant, as the early seeds of change are planted in the arctic stratosphere.
The evolution over the arctic stratosphere will begin to manifest itself into the 500mb pattern during the final week of the month, as the development of a negative AO and NAO will be signify the development of high latitude blocking in response to the ongoing stratospheric warming.
The similarity to the latter March 2000 blocking pattern to the long range modeled evolution is apparent.
However, the north Pacific pattern looks slightly more conductive to potentially wintry weather over the northern New England ski resorts, and some nuisance or trace amounts of snowfall over southern New England cannot be ruled out. Be that as it may, as has been the case throughout the winter season, the cold appears merely seasonable in severity, which is unlikely to be supportive of significant early spring snowfall across the forecast area by the end of the month and into early April.