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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, unremarkable.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Been ignoring.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could also be a case where it's a bit later, too.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea-pump that east wind
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, no.... That's the run we chase for 10 days only to never find again.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't seen anyone predicting a +PNA for February, but if so, I would agree that they are woefully misguided.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was thinking the same thing yesterday driving home...I'm like, I wish tonight's cloud deck had moved in middayish
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like a huge Norlun centered on CT over 1000'.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Erection slowly activated....
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mean I'm not saying it can't whiff, either...it's just fraught with uncertainty, which is why I'm reluctant to bite into it. Made that mistake last week. I can just ignore if I don't introduce and it goes away.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know...I was more referencing John's comment. Maybe he's right, but I would just be careful about expecting the same N Pac setup to have that exact, same result later in the season, as far as stifling storminess.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Frankly, the WPO isn't that important in March due to wave lengths shortening, so can't even be sure that would have the same stifling impact that it did earlier in the season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily fooled AFAIC, but to me, that is close enough at several months lead.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    GEFS probably won't.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't anticipate lights out in March, at least for the NE, anyway.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is our only shot with VD Day IMO...you can see the OP Euro erodes it faster, which is why it has had an inland runner a la Feb 2023, whereas the OP GFS keeps it more stout and we go a more Jan 2011 route.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same...I was incorporating everything...I would follow the ONI as long as the RONI and MEI weren't inordinately different....if they were, I would defer to them and maybe use ONI as a tie-breaker. I probably still will.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Apparently the CPC agrees, considering they are now using RONI as the official measure of ENSO intensity. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This must be in response to CPC finally replacing the archaic and outdated ONI, which I have been virtually ignoring in my intensity assessments for a few years now.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, better chance in March, but it's probably decidedly RNA from here on out IMO.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not gonna happen IMO.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm getting there....proceeding with caution.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely does down as a weak La Nina in my book....meager, sure....but MEI was well withing La Nina territory and there wasn't much of a STJ presence in the US. I guess 1995-1996 must have been an El Nino, right? MJO still avoided phase 8 for the most part.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Educational mistake. Here is my composite without the two Pacific trough analog seasons. Leaving 2014 out was also a decision influenced by CC bc it was so cold...it's clear I have to reign that back a bit after neglecting it for many years. I don't have all of the answers to the test.....always learning.
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