40/70 Benchmark

Ridge in the same dysfunctional position out west that it has been all season.

I'm just gonna keep on driving with the window up and the tunes blaring-

Rereading and this line near the end is very fair. I see why you felt I mischaracterized your stance. I am at work and don't always read exhuastively. I would give it until past the early 2030s, through the solar min and anticipated Pacific phase change.

You also don't want it leaning to the NE like that. We are certainly experiencing CC, but we have also always experienced shitty patterns that have lasted for the better part of a decade....maybe Chris is 100% correct and CC is causing this, but all I am saying is that that shouldn't be assumed because we need more time. I have gone on record as saying if we get through the early 2030's and are still struggling like this, then I will buy it. Chris said he is open to more data in the future, well I am, too.

After my last couple of seasons, I savor any correct forecast. Sorry, last time.

I'm not the least bit curious...only reason why I am periodically checking in here is for the same reason that I stare at fatal car accidents as I slowly pass by in traffic.

How many major NE US blizzards have seen with se-ne oriented PNA ridge off of the west coast? I'm going to venture to say not many- That works further down the coast, but it limits phasing potential and ability to turn the corner.

First of all, I have no issue with the bolded part of your statement....that isn't really speculation, or a hypothesis since we have decades of data to validate the notion that the climate is in fact warming. As far as your assertions regarding the warmer SSTs east of Japan inducing a faster northern jet that is making BM tracks exceedingly difficult, that may very well be true, but I don't that accounts for all of the missed opportunity....there are always going to nuances within the larger scale flow due to variability; CC doesn't prevent that. Frankly, having a confluence or a PV lobe too close in ME is just bad luck. Maybe your point regarding the jet is part of the reason why these storms aren't phasing proficiently, but we haven't had great ridges out west, either. Here is an excerpt from the blog post that I made on Friday night, cancelling this storm (never bought in for this reason) as guidance was ostensibly converging on a major NE blizzard. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/major-storm-threat-next-week-likely-to.html However, there is ample reason to doubt that this system will phase proficiently enough with the southern stream wave moving up the coast to impact the forecast area in a major way. Note the similarity in the forecast position of the PNA ridge next week in the above image to that which preceded the major storm threat of January 11th. This has been a very prevalent feature in the seasonal mean, which may at least partially explain the relative absence of major snowfalls across the region despite the relative cold temperatures. In closing, I have a question for you....why do you think the 1950s and 1980s, especially the 1988-1992 period, were so poor for snowfall on the east coast?

An element of the warming is certaintly anthropogenic, but how much is nebulous.

Antics like that aside, the climate is certaintly warming. No question...end of debate. I just think some of these postualtions about how it may impact the atmosphere shouldn't be assumed as fact after only several years of obervsation.

100%. Chef's kiss-

Yea, last year didn't have a month like this and they feel dramtically different. Agree....that said, my max depth was greater last year.

Same.

If you had read my outlook, you would know that I have in fact adjusted. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html I think my resistance to your specific ideology is that I would like more data before assuming large scale changes like that are the norm moving forward......but you do you. PS: I was too warm this year.

I have 1" more than I did last year at this time.

Year.

Eh...sitting at 50% of normal and chalking up a 7th conecutive stinker, I can still complain while acknowledging Feb has been nice.

Yea, the PAC is why we didn't have a blizzard....the block is why we didn't even have a decent snowfall.

Well, I don't think the pattern was as favorable as 2014-2015...I know I never anticipted that magnitude of cold. You say this winter was nothing like 1979-1980, which isn't entirely true....the mean vortex was right near New England in both seasons and that has never been an abundantly snowy pattern. I'm not even saying that your contention regarding the Pacific jet wasn't an issue, but it wasn't the only one. I would say I can't wait until we get crushed again, but I'm sure you will attribute the snow to CC......there is nothing that would change your mind. CC is the meteorological equivalent to politics in mainstream society. We can agree to disagree.

There was also a couple of seasons like that in late 80s, too.

Truth be told, I have learned a great deal from you Chris and have incorportated a lot of your ideology into my seasonal forecasting, but I think you are a bit preoccupied with some of this stuff and it compromises your objectivity.

Why wasn't 1979-1980 snowier? The marine heat waves weren't competing yet back then? That fact that you think its simple is part of the problem......you have your mind made up about questions it takes decades to answer. Its called bias and having agenda.

That difference in ambient heights is absolutely CC.....no doubt.

I know Bluewave will come in here and rip me to shreds with 1,001 charts and graphs, but that's my take.

Ding, ding, ding. This season will be my 7th conecutibve well below average snowfall season.....care to venture a guess at where my mean since 2015 is? 60"....just about normal. Last decade was nuts. I do think that CC is causing a more feast or famine type pattern to snowfall distributuon for us......I will say that. I think its augmenting these pre exisitng cycles.