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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very important point...personally, I feel folks get too carried away with SST maps because although somewhat of a feedback can develop to a degree, they are not the primary mechanism driving the pattern and are more of a reflection of it. I don't focus on that at all, aside from ENSO.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, to be fair...really only one direction for them to go.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mentioned that to him a couple of weeks ago.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, agree then. I forget you are coming from a northern mid atl perspective sometimes.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Higher up will have stronger winds and heavier rain, too.....ugh...safer from surge, but elevation will amplify the senisble storm impacts.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you said mid winter....in December, sure....but mid season (ie Jan-Feb), I'm sure there would have been some mixing along the immediate coast...def. big issues on the coast, but did you see the band over SE MA?? That would have been a heavy pasting. There spots in se MA that had 6-7" of rain.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think the WSW jog is a small break.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know that they would benefit much....so peak winds would be maybe 140mph instead of 160mph....bit less damage over a tiny area, but a bit more damage over a larger area from a larger wind field and greater surge capacity. It would also stand to increase the rainshield in aerial coverage. I do agree we will see one, though.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I disagree; the antecedent airmass was great. I'm not trying to steal anyone's CC...just saying, that last one would have been a big snow event in mid winter.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think in the last coastal we had did that.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he was more just focusing on that due to the +TNH/strong easterly QBO aspect....but yea, I'm not using it beause it was +ENSO. It is about as good of a QBO analog as you can get.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice job. Thanks.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It kind of mirrors the impact CC is having on the cold season, whereas as have seen a greater incidence of classic blocking patterns during the shoulder seasons, opposed to the heart of it.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow...he is aggressive. Loves 2013 and 2014.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This doesn't really affect the EMI very much since 1.2 is so minuscule and variable....the reason the EMI is biased east based is because La Niña has and will continue to be centered in region 3 and the eastern half of 3.4.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. The -NAO is more situational up here whereas it's an internal part of any winter storm to the south. It depends on the pattern whether we need it....if you have a trough going negative in the midwest, you bet your a$$ you want it.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed....I was just saying.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    The season will average positive....that is a given, but I do think that we will see negative month.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went back and edited to give the IOD and AAM a shoutout just for snowman.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    @snowman19Lowest I see in 2008 is -.128 in November 2008...we have had much lower since then....not sure why you are saying this is the lowest since then? November 2010 was -.495. Edit, oh Aussie....this data is different. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data I find it hard to believe that 2010 wasn't a more negative IOD.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which harkens back to my point....I have a hard time believing this event cools less than 1967 did the rest of the way, which is what you are implying. The trades are stronger, the subsurface is cooler, the SOI is higher and the IOD more conducive....but we'll see. I would expect a bit less cooling than 2008 featured from this point on.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty confident you're gonna need a bigger boat. Anyway, these oscillations happened over the summer, as well....it recovered. Additionally, 2008 was not only the last year with this type of warm pool in the western subsurface, but also the last IOD that was this well defined. Coincidence?? It's probably at least somewhat of a protective factor against a premature demise. Anyone know what the IOD was like in 1967?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why I only care about snow.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I personally don't see it as a big deal, but it certainly doesn't hurt the case for an official La Niña designation.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the healthy -IOD bolsters the case for not jumping ship due to the subsurface...I didn't get into the IOD and GLAAM here because it was just a brief updated synopsis, but I definitely will in the seasonal analysis.
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