40/70 Benchmark

You were pretty pessimistic the last couple of years.

Don, excellent work. Defeitely jives with a lot my stuff. While I did see value in 2012-2013, I felt like there was a bit too much of a warm ENSO flavor for inclusion, at least early on in the season.

Yea, this is what I was getting at...I see what raindance is saying on it not mattering as much for the particulars, but it's tough to a great phase on the east coast without it. It can still happen if it's mainly N stream, bu that takes a lot of folks essentially out of the game.

I do see some signs that there maybe some late redevelopers.

Looks like Wxbell is beeffing up this season...soundings and faster load times, among other things.

-NAO can actually be more of a hinderance up here on average....but as we say, there are exceptions. NAO is often more about modulating duration up here. I think the PNA is actually pretty crucial to high-end events, especially south of NYC, but even up here to an extent. Tough to dig enough in the absence of a well placed ridge out by Idaho or there abouts.

The drought certainly hasn't been worsening in southern New England.

There is a reason why I void at least 3 times throughout the day before squatting.

I have considered 2021-2022 as a mismatch season. Yes, the PNA will be lower than last season, which isn't saying much...it was very high. I definitely see similarities to 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

Absolutely...I equate it to squats in weightlifting.....it's the goliath of lifts, but it's so dependent upon balance, stability and mobility....all of these minute details that are requisite for the unleashing of such fury.

Kind of analagous to how warmer temps do not equate to smaller snow storms, unless you live....here, apparantly lol. But these frontier concepts get oversimplified.

BTW, this concept isn't, or shouldn't be unique to the SAI, either....it's pretty universally folly to base a seasonal outlook on any one factor...the more eclectic, exhaustive and multiperspective, the better-

We need the "sick brag, bro" clip from WEEI

I think the "fraudulent" claims are too far on the other end...like most elements of research concerning seasonal forecating, it's importance was initially overstated due to a combination of our lust for skill in this arena combined with today's overzealous portrayal on social media. It has it's value if used properly in concert with a multitude of other factors, but said value was undoubtedly intially overstated. I usually give it a shout out near the end of the polar section of my final outlook, but it's more of a confidence bolsterer/voice of dissent. It's not the basis of the forecast, nor should it be for anyone.

11 summers I have ben doing this blog and this is the first without so much as a mention of the tropics, which means there were 0.00 viable major US threats.

Yes, absolutely....more ways to skin a cat, so to speak, in New England.

Yea, I don't see much of an argument for an exceedingly warm season...obviously the CC elephant in the room should provide the impetus for pause before going exceedningly cold, but most should have a fighting chance this year.

Yea, AO and EPO are non-starters if they are hostile. NAO is icing on the cake and more of an insurance element against "what could go wrong".

Sign me up for that pattern...while not a KU cookbook, that looks ripe for ample overunning and redevelopment with cold loaded in se Canada. Yes.

I think most of this tweet is quite frankly hogwash. I posted the composites a few times and this notion that E QBO supports a flat Aleutian ridge is an utter fabrication. The second year La Nina "rules" are also silly in general. I think the intensity and orientation of cool ENSO is more important that it's place in a sequence. I've seen folks on here point out the flaws with Bamwx, but this guy is far from infallible as well.

The folks laughing at this post should consider that La Nina in and of itself is in fact unlikely to be a major player, regardless of whether the west Pac makes it appear as though it is. Technically Anthony is correct.

I think a best case for my area is an active, +NAO season with a couple of pronounced periods of major blocking mixed in. I don't really care to have a deeply negative NAO season, which appear to be a thing of the past, anyway.

Yes. The thing about this stretch is that it has been consistently subpar, but I have avoided any bottom-dweller seasons.....just also missed out on the couple of decent ones. It's been a strIng of seasons in the 30s and 40s, save for 2020-2021, which barely snuck above 50".

True, I do expect a lot of inland primaries....I could see a slighly below average season, but shouldn't be an abomination at my locale....I don't think.