40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I know Chris probably disagrees, but I instinctively feel as thought the earth will find a means by which to restablish balance and equilibrium....its proven remarkably resilient in that respect. But again....this isn't me resistanting because I love winter....this is me resisting because I need more time to distinguish between onimpresent natural variability and whole scale CC induced changes. If we are still mired in this regime in another decade, I'll be entirely on tream Chris.
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This entire winter has been like the end of a 8th grade date.
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The early 2030's isn't an arbitrarily chosen point, either....I chose that point because it should represent a crucial point of inflection for our climate given the fact that the Pacific should have switched to the warm phase and we should be near solar min. If this regime sticks thorugh that, then something is up.
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When he slipped he was Birving, but then he stammered to his feet as @Torch Tiger.
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You could see it coming a mile away given similaritities out west to past instances this season...most prominently 1/11.
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Yes...Chris can hold me to this. The early 2030s are a very imporant test for me.
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120 hours.....capitulation was Saturday. Saturday AM everyone woke up naked in a hot tub with their laptops in hand....by Sunday AM they were all lying tits up.
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Stare at his laptop and post images of 2/28 on X.
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Yes, valid point.
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Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not. I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.
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I the crux of the issue is that while many of your claims likely have at least some validity, most view it has natural variability and that should be the baseline assumption for now. I know you ultimately assert that you are open to new information moving forward and are not resigned to this being permanent, but I think this issue is that your tone seems to suggest that your baseline assumption is that it will be permanent moving forward. Maybe I am off base, but that is how it comes across to me.
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You are preaching to the choir....I'm in your camp, however, its obviously going to begin impacting NYC snowfall before it is mine. I don't think Don (I know I am not) is convinced that NYC is alreading being impacted, either....he was simply entertaining the possibility that NYC is in the early stages.
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I think part of the disconnect between us is due to the difference in perspective given our locales. This is simply regression to the mean for me, as evidenced by the 60" average since 2015, though that looks to drop after this season. See Don's point regarding NYC potentially being in the early stages of decline, but not yet Boston...I'm on the NH border.
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It probably won't end up a ratter....probably in the 2009-2010 camp....below average snowfall and immensely frustrating.
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If we were talking a Dec 2007 stretch, then I would consider it....but 14" isn't worth it. I'll take a 30"er that begins melting after it falls.
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Big one that melts...like last year.
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1 more warning even would safely take it out of ratter territory and place into merely the "shitty" destination.
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Well- I have 50% of average...do the math.
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Better, still not great..I'd like it bit further east, but at least its not leaning positively and it extends up to higher latitudes into the AO domain...as you said. Now lets see how reality plays out
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Hopefully the orientation and positioning of the ridge out west changes.
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Honestly maybe next year.
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Something will happen. You'll waste another 8 days staring at the laptop while drug lords overtake the city.
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I must have 3.75" of water
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I'm right between that 10 and 18", so the 14.5" here jives.
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Another late season se US snow threat?
