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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Didn't they get the fast-flow memo?
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is a fighting chance given changes out west.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mean....I feel better than I did a couple of days ago, but it's still a coin-flip at best.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pacific Trough patterns can be great when you have a mechanism to deflect the track southward in the nation's midsection....some of our most active and prolific stretches have happened like this....March 2001, January 2011, March 2018, etc.....Pac just keeps spitting out energy and the mid latitudes funnel it into a favorable slot.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, which is why I chose the language I did..."first one", "latter two".
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel better about it with the trend out west.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    You have some wiggle room here with models bulls eying NJ right now.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definite LBSW trend today...I would rather have that problem at day 5-6 with a Miller B then having it blow up in the GOM.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The one tomorrow? Doesn't look great...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like I'm out on the first one..hopefully latter events work out.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    ICON LBSW
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interested to see what 12z looks like. I am with John....my initial instinct was no, but it's not impossible and could still go either way. The ridge has moved slightly WEST and amplified since I indicated I was against it, so it looks better now. I originally thought maybe 25% shot, now I would agree it's like 50/50.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, Scott...Fri night is a SWFE...exactly what that is.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Elaborate?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would have a crazy deform-band...someone would be having a snow-thundergasm.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny how there is just a grave yard of Pacific disturbances amassing underneath that little block.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's blatant plagiarism of the KU cookbook.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why 2018 and 2023 are both valid analogs, despite each invoking drastically different reactions from CoastalWx!!
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Remember all year I was saying I think it will be like March 2023 with a little more help...case in point. While the pattern is redolent of that particular latter season stanza, the Pacific troughing is not quite as deleterious to winter prospects in this case because it's not as extreme and is accompanied by a favorable PV positioning.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Undoubtedly related.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That little block south of James Bay is really saving our bacon during a bonafide Pacific trough onslaught.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO is the least impressive in general with the two follow up potentials.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not trying to imply that it will necessarily rival that stretch on a per inch basis, but I think it does help to validate the use of that season as an upper tier analog. That was a very anomalous period.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are a bit better off being further west because it's attenuating as it comes eastward. 06z EURO ticked back N a bit, at least.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    First event is at risk of sliding just south of me.
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