40/70 Benchmark

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html What is evident on Friday night is disturbance #3 entering the fray may by moving into the north plains. The crucial difference here is that shortly after the system descends south of the Canadien border, ridging begins to build over the western COUNS intramountain region. This allows ample room for amplification under the aforementioned PV-block dyad due to the fact that southeast heights decrease as a result of the building western CONUS ridge. Note the decreased amplitude and further east position of the ridge in guidance from Sunday. While this does in fact represent a more favorable ridge placement and intensity for major east coast storms, the fact that it remains marginal in conjunction with increased confluence to the north still implies that a major storm is dubious.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html First Call For Friday Night

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html First & Final Call for Wednesday Evening

All CoastalWx All The Time

I think there maybe a phasing attempt at some point.

Oh, gimme a hug, grampy....let me help you get a grip

IDK whom you were talking about. Same nonsensical dribble every time someone tries to maintain objectivity.

Yup, fair.

Yea, for jaded buoy #696969.

How is it more amped and SE?

Another jaded dude...

So jaded...who hurt you?

This winter has been pretty ordinary for a large chunk of the region with respect to snowfall, and I have news for you...it's systems like this weekend that represent the crucial points of inflection that determine whether or not they ascend. Some do, some don't. Some call it jaded, I call it reality.

Most great winter's leave plenty on the table...means zip, zero, zilch.

As though the model is telegraphing future efforts to use eastward tending as vehicle for gradient normalization.

Yes. That is a concern...the disinterest of the EURO camp is an issue. I still hedge in that direction...maybe not cirrus, but not sold on a blizzard.

Still not that worried about the LBSW crap...we saw that in the big January event, too....this time the pattern is even less conducive to seeing that. I'm sure that weathergeek half-wit is making up AI images as we speak depicting tri-state Armageddon....have at it.

I suck at it for the most part.

Nothing to do with the region or the people, I just have no interest in a storm if it misses my area.

Yea, the overall trend sucks. ......I mean, you can take your free throw from behind the house and still bank it in off of a garbage can , but it's a lower percentage shot.

This has been a trend and it sucks. While that often reverses eventually, you don't want to see it get buried any more at this point.

I rather blog for a crack-whore's venereal disease.

It could go either way, but gun-to-head, the sub forum will be contemplating a gun-to-head come this weekend.

It's often correct when it's the lone voice of dissent and sucks.

You have to remember that every met, aside from cyborg-Will, is human and also utilize defense mechanisms themselves