40/70 Benchmark

Yanks survive....man, Jays are playing with fire blowing a 6-1 lead in a closeout game.

Well, snowman may not give you that, but he will give you as much as anybody ever will from a single angle. I do agree with the overall sentiment, though.

latitude

While I snuck in a good season or two in the earlier stretch, this latter stretch has just been consistently subpar and has avoided reall cellar seasons. The stretch from the 80s into the 90s actually had greater variance in that there were a couple of better seasons, but also a few lower than anything I have seen since 2011-2012.

Well, it's pretty much noise IMBY...the period from the 1985-1986 through the 1991-1992 seasons averaged 43.3" of snowfall for my area....2018-2019 through 2024-2025 has averaged 41.75". I mean, if that is the impact of CC on snowfall, I can deal. I would prefer the more feast or famine element and won't jump a ledge over 1.5". Less cold and dry, which is the worst IMHO.

Whenever I see a you offer a glimmer of hope, it still always manages to end on a note that leaves me wanting to slit my wrists as I bleed out into the warm pool.

Central air, baby.

I think that has always been the case...unless it's really glaring, like 2009....although in my infancy of seasonal forecasting back in 2014, I did correctly call for a huge SNE winter....I just had it more due to the NAO rather than the +TNH on juice that ended up delivering. I actually ended up being a bit too reserved with snowfall totals, after being openly mocked in early to mid January when it looked dire.

55-85" ceiling in Boston is about 75-105" where I am. That's not unreasonable considering I have only had above 105" 3 times in recorded history, anyway.

Okay, 75-80" maybe.

Maybe Chris is right and I will never see more than 65" in a season again...I understand why he thinks that way...I'm just not convinced yet, but it's far from a non-zero threat.

Yes, all I was saying is that they are always the same ideas....which is why I know what the data presented will reveal by seeing who is presenting it. There are plenty of people on the other end of the spectrum (cold, snow) and they also take shit.

I like the insight you bring...all I'm saying is that you only seem to present the same ideas. It's not just you, either. I have tried to improve on that by thinking about alternative outcomes and data that supports it. I was just teasing you, but its not an issue that is relegated to you at all.

You nervous about tonight?

Thank god....should be the last of the 80s until April or May, not counting Xmas eve.

I think the ACE could still finish near normal. But ike I said, I will gladly take a repeat of 2022-2023 with a compromise PNA between that year and last year. I feel that would be pretty good for my area.

I agree, Chris...this season will probably be warmer with a more negative PNA, but we are still going to get pretty pronounced +PNA period(s) IMHO.

I already knew the answer once snowman asked about it...like I said. I wasn't really joking. Like the NAO data he posted....looked at the poster and knew it was data that supported a +NAO. I like the guy, but the fact of the matter is that you can't go wrong using that crude method of data analysis. Just look who is posting it and save yourself the time. It's like my 5 year old daughter...she only asks questions when she eagerly anticipates the answer. (After hearing how good of a girl she was all day)..."daddy, am I going to get ice cream because I was a good girl"? =Hmmm...MJO looks to enter the MC phases at a pretty low amplitude..."Chris, how does your MJO indicator look so far"?

Call me crazy, but I just assumed it wasn't off to a great start since you were asking about it.

We agree on that...ceiling is still higher than that for Boston.

Well, that settles that-

I would agree with the boded even independent of GW. I don't expect 100" in a month again anytime soon. As far as your transition period statement...I agree RE the increased moisture impact, but I still think we need more time to definitively say that the ceiling is lower...especially north of metro NYC.

Yes, thanks. I often get those two seasons mixed up. 1978-1979 stunk up here, too....we missed PD I, but it wasn't record low. Obviously I understand that these earlier, record lean snowfall seasons were colder......but my point is that I think we need to wait a little longer than a mere decade after a near all-time season to conclusively say that our ceiling is declining here in SNE. I'm not saying that it definitively is not...just to be clear. I am saying that we do not yet know and I need more time to decide.

I am not denying CC....we are warming, but I think some are getting a bit carried away with the attribution piece...especially considering the majority of GW impacts radiational cooling nights. Yes, storm days are also warming...but not to the same degree as the former. Now, if the 2030's are as lean as the 2020s, then I will capitulate to greater attribution. Now tell me, Chris...what would need to happen for you to question the attribution piece? Another all-time season seems like a rather lofty bar, no??