40/70 Benchmark

Yea, it would press the cold south after the rain.

47.3

TBH, that is what will probably need to happen in order to gain much additional skill in seasonal forecasting.

I think it was one of the stronger analogs.

Generally speaking, the more pronounced warm ENSO will have a more prominent cool west/warm east dipole, and vice versa for cool ENSO. Obviously CC is complicating this a bit, which is part of what led me astray for the 2023-2024 season.

No, it doesn't. It implies chaos or random variability. You can theoretically have a text book perfect pattern identical to past successful analogs and yet still have the storm simply fail to materialize. Perhaps there is some minescule difference that is too minute to be accounted for, which is part of what is accounted for by "chaos".

I didn't say they were identical...I said "you could replicate identical conditions using AI"....it was a hypothetical to illustrate my point.

Spring in New England!! We're in form for severe season.

I'll pass on anything resembling this past winter, thanks.

Obviously a cooler eastern Pacific is indicative of la Nina, but a warmer western Pacific is also representative of a cool ENSO dipole. A cooler western Pacific if often accompanied by El Nino.

I don't agree with this.... Note that the 1997 intense el Nino event was part of a very potent cool west/warm east Pacific dipole and was representative of a text book warm ENSO configuration: The 2015 el Nino, though biased a bit more to the west, was also part of this larger scale system that featured a very potent Pacific SST gradient from east to west in what was a fully functional warm ENSO.

Well, as long as you don't make pizza we're good.

1000% agreed!!!!!!

So...about that marine ass mist....

Ended up raking NS....March 2014 blew dead ones.

I would use that for all of SNE at this point.

Well, I meant it in terms of latitude, and I know scooter did, too, since he said "Vermont to Dendrite"....I think it depends on storm context. At least you have one, regardless...I have neither.

Up refers to latitude...Toland doesn't really have that.

Yea, I would def. include the Monadknocks and at times N ORH hills...

32" vs 34.25" last year. This is my worst snowfall season since 2011-2012.

Chaos....the atmospheric highly chaotic, which is why you could replicate identical conditions via AI and the season would still evolve at least somewhat differently. This is why I say that it sometimes just comes down to luck whether or not any discrete event works out.....I know some don't like to hear that because they want to operate under this fallacy that everything can be figured out on a calculator, but it simply isn't so. Some are also leery of that explanation because they feel forecasters will use it as an excuse for a failed forecast, but there is an element of luck in weather. At the end of the day, the forecast is still either right or wrong and one needs to take accountability for that....just as in sports...plenty of luck involved there, but there still needs to be a winner and a loser.

I hit 58 yesterday.

You're in, but certainly not up.

Its marginal, agree.

I'm just killing some time before lunch, anyway....I don't expect anything to come of this.