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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Also, remember...SSTs are part of a feedback, which is the reason for the correlation, but they don't run the show....if the atmosphere begins changing, the sea will not lead the way.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think 2020-2021 was below normal there. 2021-2022 may not have been, either.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    They have been for the past several years, and the WPO averaged negative without a NE warm pool to offset in 2021-2022. Anyway, I'm not arguing it's going to make it negative...just prevent it from being extremely positive.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seasonals have it persisting. Remnant of what triple dip? It wasn't there during those three consecutive La Nina events earlier this decade.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would feel compelled to go through those seasons and check the QBO/solar states. Its going to be difficult to sustained a storngly +AO early on with a strongly easterly QBO near solar max. 1974 and 1979 appear to be decent QBO matches-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This data set illustrates my point about how crucial the WPO will be. All of these seasons except for 1998, which sucked, had a -WPO. Having a favorable WPO leaves much more margin for error, so hopefully the western warm pool is offset enough by the NE PAC warming so that it isn't so extreme this season. A strongly positive WPO leaves virtually no margin for error around the rest of the hemisphere, so if anything else is significantly unfavorable, then most of us are cooked and upside is near normal.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This data set actually has some nice winters for my area...2004, 1993, 1992 and 1960 were great, very good, great and very good. 1974 and 2016 were respectable. 1979-1980 was my lowest snowfall season ever and 1998 sucked. I think I would take this data set over the other one TBH.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed RE him, but I can't every recall you being on the decent winter train, either...and notice I say "decent winter" as opposed to "cold". It's never cold anymore, but there have been decent winters.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting...a bit of overlap...1993 common denominator. I looked at that season, but ultimately disregarded because there was too much of a warm ENSO flavor to it.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say that this is not an unreasonable look, and resembles many of the early composites we have seen...but I don't think it's tweaked enough for CC because no way negative anaomalies will be that expansive in a seasonal mean this day and age.....I would snip away the southern and eastern third of that area.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I always advise taking this guy with a grain of salt, but this is an interesting piece....I consider him like snowman, only on the opposite end of the spectrum. He clearly knows enough to be dangerous, but his data always seems to point in the same direction. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/will-north-pacific-ocean-anomaly-bring-cold-winter-2025-2026-united-states-canada-fa/
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    It will be better than what all of the chasers that will flock to the Carolinas will experience in a few days.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think there will be a pretty mild stretch mid-winter.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Snowman has plenty to offer..it's just always one-sided info.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, and argues for positive....but I'm just saying I don't think it will be as extreme....maybe I'll be wrong. We'll see.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do not think it will be as extreme, though....yes, the west PAC is still warm, but the warmth has spread east...think of it as kind of like a the RONI effect with respect to ENSO. Remeber the 2023-2024 El Nino and how the west warm pool mitigated and altered the warm ENSO impression around the hemisphere. I think that warmth further east will act to neutralize things to an extent.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    WPO I am less confident in.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll go out on a limb and say we won't be stuck in +EPO patterns for the majority of winter 2025-2026.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why I reference my forecasts....if you are going to make blanket statements about my perceptions that are inconsistent with what I am forecasting, then perhaps you should read them. I am favoring +WPO, dude...and explicitly mentioned that this caps seasonal snowfall potential. The hope is that it's a more subdued +WPO as it was in 2017-2018, which is manageable and not prohibitive to heavier snows for at least the northeast.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not claiming that you specifically have a question about my forecasts per se, but when you feel compelled to explain to me how difficult it has been to sustain "wall to wall DJF -EPO -WPO patterns since 2018-2019", the tacit inference is that you feel as though I am under the impression that this will happen in 2025-2026. Perhaps you should pose the question-
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with you on the meager STJ and active N stream, but not sure why that necessarily hurts the NORTHeast??......Miller B redevelopments can be fine for New England and upstate NY. Last year was brutal here...all set the with STJ "cooperating" as much as it did last year. I'll take my chances with the N stream over watching Baton Rouge to Nashville getting hit.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I probably had like 80" those seasons....sign me up.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wait 3 weeks before winter and Chris will hook it up.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    A good exercise I like to participate in is "opposite outcome"....give me a few examples of why this season could turn out more favorably from the perspective of snow/cold enthusiasts, than you envision....it helps to guard against preconceived thought processes, which is something we are all guilty of from time to time.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you have been reading my blogs, you would know I expect neither wall-to-wall -WPO or -EPO...that said, show me on the doll where the negative modes of those respective teleconnections hurt you? It's okay to mention them....confront these traumatic thought patterns head-on.
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