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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would def. prefer moderate where you are in the mid atl, but up here, I'd prefer weak.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    RONI, since ONI is obsolete. I use this for PDO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    We've been through that....higher end events are going to leak east. You keep imagining this uber-strong, western biased unicorn...have at it. Yes, strong events are favorable for rouge blizzards, agreed. I called the 2016 event down to the week on a seasonal level. I am talking about temps and NE overall snowfall...only one that was decent for NE snowfall was 1982, which had somewhat of a -WPO.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do not expect it be like 2023-2024.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see it perhaps hanging near neutral like 2004 or 2009....23-24 remained strongly negative.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    It will absolutely be warmer than this past winter, regardless.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, you agree with me because I never stated the second half of that. Sounds like a delusion. jk
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I called BS on that early on.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, they are correlated....and I feel it will flip with a strong El Nino on the heels of two consecutive -PDO El Nino events.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Feb 2002 -1.51, Feb 1957 it was -1.57....
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO was only -1.01 for February....I don't get the reluctance to fathom a flip in the face of a strong El Nino.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    People saying "I don't see any sign of the PDO flipping"...no shit, we don't see any sign of the El Nino yet. It's like convincing yourself on the ocean that it's going to remain snowing before the low comes closer and the wind flips onshore.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see. I'd bet against it, but my early guesses are often wrong because they're just that....guesses.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    2004-2005 may be a fine analog if you account for the fact that El Nino will be stronger.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good all on 2009-2010...that was a slight -PDO......so there was three consecutive prior to 2014. I feel like if we remain negative PDO again, it's going to be more like 2004 and 2009 in that it won't be severely so. I could see something like that.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe something like this?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes. 1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with.... My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are right, but I highly doubt we see another one like that given how similar 2023-2024 was to 1972-1973. I think El Nino ends up weaker and further west than that.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I agree. I don't think weak, but nor do I think 2.0+.....so we can work with that.
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