40/70 Benchmark

Not for a few more weeks....I'm a bit less optimistic overall than I originally was.

I think within a few years a more moderate El Nino could suffice, somewhere in between those two extremes....I am sure CC is enhancing this pattern, but its not entirely unprecedented, as the potent 1972-1973 El Nino also featured a great deal of MC forcing due to the Pacific cold phase. That ended later in the decade with the Pacific phase flip and a couple of meager warm ENSO events.

New England didn't get a great winter.

Exactly...that is what I have been saying. This is what I point out when Chris tries to explain that past -NAO/+PNA was more successful...they were -WPO.

Yep...left that out.

I took a cursory look back and couldn't find a stretch that has been as consistently strongly positive as it has been since 2017.

It's like I have said to you before.....it's folly to generalize ENSO by intensity.....2009-2010 was a different breed than prototypical stronger events...it was a full-fledged Modoki during an ascending solar cycle just beyond solar min. That is a mid Atlantic wet dream....it's no mystery what it evolved in a favorable fashion. Everyone and their mother was forecasting a blockbuster season that fall...it was obvious.

I would honestly pass on a STJ as strong as 2009-2010 again.

I agree with you that the baseline jump in temps is permanent, and also agree that we need to wait and see on the storm track. Like I was saying, I think most of our disagreements are just born of inconsistencies in the manner that we articulate ourselves and the points that we stress. We largely agree in a general sense.

Completely agree.....I am open to the idea of CC forcing that pattern, but as I have been saying...I would need to see it persist into the 2030s.

I don't think it will be, but I am open-minded about it...if we are still stuck in this pattern beyond the next solar min, then I will change my tune. Agree, or disagree, I think I have been pretty consistent about that. I pushed back on all of the west warm pool stuff at first, but that last El Nino changed my mind, so I have shown that I will acquiesce when the data warrants. This isn't a bias at play. I am on board with the warming....no contest. However, my baseline assumption is that ultimately earth will find a way to offset enough of this to acheieve balance and maintain the osciallations that we have always seen. I unerstand that may be incorrect, but I won't change my stance on that until I am convinced that everything has become stagnant for long enough that the oscillations as we knew them have changed. I know Chris feels that has already happened, but I think there is a pretty convincing case that it has not. I am not moving any goalposts......if this pattern persists throughout the early 2030s, then I will be convinced that the system as I knew it has changed and will offer a tip of the cap to Chris.

But when Kev's wife is around, some c*ck blocking develops around the Davis Straight...

He has that effect on some guys

I was just wondering which chemical in it were unhealthy and why....if you know offhand, great...otherwise I am sure I can look it up.

Why?

Yea, I'll pass on melanoma and leatherface.

What is MAHA?

Kind of reminded me of April 1, 1997, too.

1.66 Boned again.

I know Chris was not in this camp, but I remeber when a large contigent of folks were theorizing that the favorable extra tropical Pacific last decade was a semi-permanent change due to CC, too.

You mean there is a positive correlation between the equatorial Pacific waters during the summer and the subsequent winter season NAO?

I really don't understand how waiting for more data and a larger sample can be wrong.... I don't disagree regarding what has been happening, but I think any implications concerning the future, aside from general warming, need to be tempered for now.

Yes, this also plays into the pattern, which has sucked for the past 8 years or so. I understand that although you won't admit it, you strongly hedge towards this being permanent. I am not there yet. We will find out in a few years.

I don't think anyone entirely understands the factors that determine how impressive the cold source becomes for a given season...while we can be sure that the trend is for it to become less impressive, its not a perfectly linear progression, so any given year moving forward may have a more impressive reservoir to tap.....though clearly the odds diminsh with time.

Okay....so the earth is warming. Thanks for the striking revelation. My point is that while a relica Feb 2015 pattern wouldn't be as cold as it was then, it would still be much colder than this past January. I get the impression that you think that it would be similar to this past January and I have to disagree. The PNA (west-biased) and WPO were ideal for cold delivery to the NE US that season....last year they were not.