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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 27.5. That should do it for the bugs and growing season.
  2. I'll be absolutely floored if my area doesn't do better.
  3. IOD/WPO correlation. I don't doubt the La Nina correlation....Modoki favors positive NAO/flat Aleutian ridging and EP is more favorable for negative NAO/poleward Aleutian ridging. Anyway, obviously exceptions with regard to both correlations. I would favor weak +WPO/NAO in the DJFM mean this season.
  4. Just eyeballing.......while I don't doubt the correlation, there are plenty of exceptions.
  5. Correct. This place is much more reasonable and grounded than mainsteam social media.
  6. Should end any residual delusions of grandeur regarding the ultimate intensity of this cool ENSO event.
  7. That said, while I don't expect a supernova strength PV this year, it should be a positive NAO in the seasonal mean.
  8. It was also a Modoki La Nina....nothing is in a vacuum.
  9. I think the analog does have some utility....it's a great ENSO analog....but there are also some glaring limitations; namely the solar cycle and the western Pacific.
  10. I know...was sarcastically operating off of the premise that the SAI is correlated to winter. I wasn't refuting anthing...don't worry, I'm not trying to steal your CC.
  11. Still 63.1 at home...front probably through in about an hour or so..
  12. Yea, the trick has been pulling this off during the actual cold season....the shoulder seasons of fall and spring have been more prone to traditional blocking patterns, likely owed to the shorter wave lengths rendering Rosby waves less vulnerable to Pac jet intrusions.
  13. Yea, the loop will be over western CT in a couple of months.
  14. I thought it was after Opal....I remember the frist snow event for my area was a rain to snow mess in latter November, which lest a few inches of slush.
  15. Poor Taylor...the mere sight of that may end her career faster than Kelce's.
  16. Bun me now....this is just anecdotal, nothing more....but I do recall 1995 flipping on a dime from mild to cooler and stormy around this time.
  17. Ginxy is gonna do naked Gibbous moon tide dances
  18. Boston 2015-2016 to present is probably similar to 1951-1980 NYC or Philly.
  19. I'm sure a few others will chime in on that, too....."Perhaps Siberian snow had some influence in previous decades, but in this new, warmer climate it doesn't seem to matter" (insert peer reviewed article citing the effect of greenhouses gases on increased tri state suicides, and imagery of blood-red water east of Japan).
  20. Oh, boy...this is going to get snowman to go off and tear Cohen a new one after he's done with JB
  21. Not to mention that young nucleus has never won $hit....not like it's some veteran core that his proven their mettle.
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