40/70 Benchmark

2001 and 2023 are also analogs. Does this guarantee a big come back in terms of snow? Nope...maybe we still get boned, but what I can tell you is that there isn't going to be some exotic +7 monthly departure in February just because the first half of winter was cold. I am pretty confident in that SSW, but IF that fails...then I could see a very warm March...but doubtful. February is not going to be very warm in the mean...maybe it ends up like January only in reverse order (cold start, warm up later as the strat does it's thing), but it won't be a lost cause.

This x1,000,000.

It's not logic at all.....it's fear-mongering neurosis triggered by unsavory weather outcomes of the past.

Don't write off early March as a potential prime KU target period....I also can see something pretty substantial in early February.

28.4 Had a coating of snow earlier this evening...just overcast now.

Yea, just don't allow that to lull you into a false sense of security concerning a warm February and early finish. It's not over...barely started.

I ended up nailing that stretch after the cold-scare. My PNA call for the month is more precarious, though...we'll see. I would have made the same call again given the data at my disposal last fall.

Always something....

I have a dad-bod...but all of my labwork and BP are pristine at 45 years of age. Secret is weight training.

If you do really wan to push the "La Nina is dead" narrative, Feb 2013 maybe a higher end analog that is achievable.....I almost included it in my February list.

Not really...I'd rather that circle shifted about 200 miles west.

I doubt a truly high-end month of February and we'll just leave at that...I don't care to go there again. BTW, @Ginx snewxFeb 2021 is a contender, too....I could see something like that.

Feb 2014 was probably about the best you will get for cool ENSO...2001 in W NE.

I think the epic stretch was more December into early January...February was relatively tame....then March into early April ramped up again. I had 12.3" that February.

Yea, but def. not La Nina.

El Nino.

I slipped a disc day after xmas....dealing with sciatica. Last time I got that was right before Bliz in 22, which piled on and porked me. Analog? As an aside....I notice this one youtube met keeps saying ANALlog....I couldn't help but laugh.

Speedy recovery, bud...you are one tough SOB.

Oh, absolutely...yea. I just think people are bruised, battered and gun-shy.

As much as I don't feel February will behave like a traditional La Nina....I don't think we have ever had a truly high-end run during the month of February in a cool ENSO....January and March, sure...

I would prefer that verify with SE heights a hair more subdued.

Not sure who did that...I had 22". Sucks for them. But CT is where the two guys that responded to me were from, which is why I said "CT". No one ever explicitly claimed that the whole state got porked. This is the risk of jumping into dialogue after the fact.

Well, Paul....to be fair, many of us have been doing that for years now with little fanfare. ...so it's natural to want to wait until something makes at least into the medium range before giving it the time of day. I don't think anyone is debating the PNA spike in that time frame.

Ask the CT guys who brought it up. No one talked about JPs.....we were just discussing how none of us likely being left out of the focus area.

I won't speak for him, but I def. can be....probably because I put so much time into this shit...it's tough to reconcile the fact that you can spend half of your life writing and researching, and still be wrong....I'm also so passionate about it, which is why I put so much time into it and formulate strong opinions on the material.