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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I do consider that...or have the past year or two. I should have said the west warm pool in addition to ENSO...but what I meant is I don't obsess over finding SST meps that are replica matches around the hemisphere.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but probably a bit cooler.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems like intensification was reinvigorated when it began moving a bit more readily, so upwelling may have slowed the rate a bit for a spell.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like Back River is the winner.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the two aren't mutually exlusive.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of the "best" areas that it could have hit in terms of population....west jog did us a small solid.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, St Elizabeth's Parish will get wiped.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    System is a wonderful casestudy in how to navigate internal processess in the healthiest way possible. Wow.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very important point...personally, I feel folks get too carried away with SST maps because although somewhat of a feedback can develop to a degree, they are not the primary mechanism driving the pattern and are more of a reflection of it. I don't focus on that at all, aside from ENSO.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, to be fair...really only one direction for them to go.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mentioned that to him a couple of weeks ago.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, agree then. I forget you are coming from a northern mid atl perspective sometimes.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Higher up will have stronger winds and heavier rain, too.....ugh...safer from surge, but elevation will amplify the senisble storm impacts.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you said mid winter....in December, sure....but mid season (ie Jan-Feb), I'm sure there would have been some mixing along the immediate coast...def. big issues on the coast, but did you see the band over SE MA?? That would have been a heavy pasting. There spots in se MA that had 6-7" of rain.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think the WSW jog is a small break.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know that they would benefit much....so peak winds would be maybe 140mph instead of 160mph....bit less damage over a tiny area, but a bit more damage over a larger area from a larger wind field and greater surge capacity. It would also stand to increase the rainshield in aerial coverage. I do agree we will see one, though.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I disagree; the antecedent airmass was great. I'm not trying to steal anyone's CC...just saying, that last one would have been a big snow event in mid winter.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think in the last coastal we had did that.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he was more just focusing on that due to the +TNH/strong easterly QBO aspect....but yea, I'm not using it beause it was +ENSO. It is about as good of a QBO analog as you can get.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice job. Thanks.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    It kind of mirrors the impact CC is having on the cold season, whereas as have seen a greater incidence of classic blocking patterns during the shoulder seasons, opposed to the heart of it.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow...he is aggressive. Loves 2013 and 2014.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    This doesn't really affect the EMI very much since 1.2 is so minuscule and variable....the reason the EMI is biased east based is because La Niña has and will continue to be centered in region 3 and the eastern half of 3.4.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. The -NAO is more situational up here whereas it's an internal part of any winter storm to the south. It depends on the pattern whether we need it....if you have a trough going negative in the midwest, you bet your a$$ you want it.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed....I was just saying.
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