40/70 Benchmark

Saturday actually has a good banding signal from back through ORH county on Saturday.

I could see that...I mentioned earlier, bet against phasing this season. Still should be a good event.

Slight improvement over 12z for Saturday, though.

It should be less amped with Monday, too.

Probably end up a like a 6-12" deal.

The whole duration thing is overrated IMHO....how often do we really see 1"/hr+ snows protracted over the span of 24 hours, anyway? Occlusion will usually limit it. The real key is to have H85 through H5 close off about over the cape....its about track and timing of developmental lifecycle of mid level lows. Get that right, and I'll show you 2'+ in 12 hours. Just speaking in a theoretical sense...NOT a forecast. What a blocky pattern does is not only buy you that extra 6", but it makes the amplification and/or phasing needed to get those type of systems more likely...not to mentioned preventing too much amplification. The stalling notion may mean the difference between 24" and 30", but its not as a big of a deal as folks think, unless you get off on an extra 12 hours of currier and ives like Kev.

UK looks like the GFS

Not a huge fan of the latitudinal gradient showing up...is this getting kicked east?

I would love to get paste....hopefully I can at least sniff 30.

I look at them when a need a quick update...its gives an idea of trends.

I know what happened....it went south with the second event. Sorry...I looked at cumulative total map

Wxbell snow map.

I do, remember every other storm?

GFS def. toned down a bit from 18z...not sure what folks are looking at....not a huge deal, but noticeable.

I want you to rain like hell, then dry slot.

Agree...18z may have been a bit zonked, but I think its generally right. NAM likes to play pin the tail on the weenie with little pieces of convection out in the ocean.

Knowing the EURO, it will trend Monday into something lame, like 3-6", then Monday it will be even hair more amped.

Exactly.

Is Saturday trends back some, we had better see Monday do the same, or I'm going to melt all over the forum

Toned down..sure. The NAM? That would be a modeling failure.

A 12-14mb fluke at hr 36? Cmon, Scott....BS. That's a modeling travesty.

If this ever fell apart, oh the melts.

Reminds me a bit of the Jan 2011 system...

I think it has the right idea...you would hope, at this range lol