40/70 Benchmark

February 2007, 1995 and 2010 are all patterns that I would take another roll of the dice with, though.

Looks like a healthy dose of NAO/EPO, but meager PNA...don't disagree.

Fall of 2006 had some toasty region 1.2 readings, though I think that you are right in that both ended up moderately modoki.

Pretty nice look...

Yea, used ENSO warm-neutral and weak el nino.

Yea, I never engage in the debate over whether eastern regions need to be below +.50, or whether the west just needs to be warmer. I let the Japanese do the calculations and plug them in.

I'd keep an eye on the MEI....it was +.30 as of AS value. SO should be higher.

@psuhoffman

Note regarding 2014-2015...it actually started more basin wide, and trended into a modiki. There were some pretty toasty eastern regions late summer/early fall...but by peak ONI that had changed. This one is evolving differently...opposite evolution.

I see the guidance...I think it will be close with a very late peak ONI. The fact that it will be marginal and late do have ramifications on the forecast...whether or not it technically registers as official el nino is probably trivial. This is baked into the outlook.

And btw, I do not think that this season offers the most pristine of patterns.

@psuhoffman very good point. Easy to drive yourself crazy, and dillute what is an already paltry sample size of data by endeavoring to assign more specific criteria in binning ENSO events. I have always interpreted the data as moderate el nino favoring mid atl most (stronger STJ, more miller a) and weak favoring sne most (More n stream dependent..miller b). Modoki is just better for the east coast in general because the central PAC source of forcing teleconnects to a weaker PAC jet, more PAC ridging and polar blocking. As far as modoki goes, I believe that it is best not to crudely designate or generalize as either modoki or cannonical, but rather utilize a sliding scale akin to that which is utilized to assess intensity/ONI....ie +1.0 modoki value is strongly modoki, +.50 to +1.0 is moderately modoki, and under +.50 minimally modoki hedging towards cannonical. Very few events register as negative, but those that do are also powerful, such as 1982, 1997 and 2015....1976 being the exception, as it was modestly negative and peaked as weak ONI. The catch is that the structure of ENSO is usually relatively fluid, thus assessing and assigning a numeric value at any given, arbitrary point in time is a fool's errand because it provides but a mere snapshot at random point. My aim is to assess this "snapshot" and assign a numerical value to denote its place on the modoki vs cannonical continuum during the apex of its ability to manifest itself into the hemispheric regime and modulate forcing schemes. This is during peak ONI intensity, which will also usually coincide with maximum bimonthly MEI. IOW, if the el Nino peaks during the OND tri monthly period, calculate the mean of those three monthly modiki values to assign a seasonal value. Remember this...generalizations and meteorology do not mix well, especially within the context of this burgeoning frontier science referred to as seasonal forecasting. Always keep an open mind and be ready for anything. The moment that your throught processes become too rigid, you fail and fail badly, as I did last season.

Everyone was whacking it to the big nor easter last week.

Don't completely agree...

I'm not trying to drive hype...not forecasting 100"+ in Boston..main take away from that is that odds of a ratter are relatively low.

I do not anticipate a repeat of December 2014....December 2019 will not be hostile. I foresee an improving Pacific later this season, but as a seasonal mean, I don't feel as though it will be extremely favorable...save for maybe the arctic domain (-EPO).

I haven't spoken much about the NAO during the lead in, but I do not anticipate a repeat of last year's hostile Atlantic. As far as ENSO, while we will be prone to interludes of alternative forcing mechanisms given both the meager intensity and delayed onset of the ensuing warm ENSO event, I do not anticipate sustained la nina like forcing to be a prevalent feature like last year. Latest bimonthly MEI is already +.30 and will only ascend from this point until the onset of boreal winter.

Agree...I don't see the typical lackluster December generally associated with el nino.

Love this thread....lots of good stuff in this forum.

I def. agree with the translation eastward of the developing el nino...much like last year. That is that main difference between this season and 2014..el nino is developing a bit later and is working from west to east, whereas that year it was east to west. Otherwise, 2014 is a good ENSO analog.

Should be a weak el nino this season....best ENSO analog is 2014-2015. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/confidence-grows-in-late-marginal-el.html Winter outlook 11-12-19.

Since you said that it suggested positive last year, I count 10 hits, 3 whiffs and 1 neutral. Pretty good, despite the terrible showing two years ago.

DM NAO ended up being +.74 , so pretty big miss for your indicator that season, which was very negative. However it is worth noting that March was a very big NAO....

I found my reference to your work...it was the outlook for not last winter, but the previous one. Perhaps one of the most skilled forecasters on a forum replete with talented meteorologists and hobbyists alike, in americanwx.com, "StormchaserChuck" devised a formula roughly a decade ago that predicts the mean aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north Atlantic. We strongly endorse this methodology as the most accurate predictor available for the mean state of the winter NAO. The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations that we so often reference. "In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7). Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact: 2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter .. Yes 2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes 2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes 2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes 2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes 2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes 2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes 2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 9-1-2 This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69)". Needless to say, we believe that the case for a predominately -NAO phase this winter is a strong one, and this means that it is more likely than not that the arctic oscillation will also be in its negative mode more often than not. But we can look far above the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific to find more definitive indicators.