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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    The problem last year was that atmosphere didn't respond to the ocean....there was no coupling until very late season.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this warm ENSO event will end up central based, like last year and 2005. Warmth is progressing east and Japanese guidance supports a continuation of this.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good analog, but not my number one. Later onset should have ramifications this season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    SOI and subsurface all supportive of weak el nino...which is why ocean has been responding. Writing about that now in outlook.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bet on late peaking weak el nino, not neutral.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wasn't suprised at all.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    It took you five years to glance over under my avatar? I moved about 12 mi due north last fall, from Wilmington to Methuen, MA. Not at all remote.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    When the arctic hounds are unleashed on hell, and the devil wades through sea ice.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, hopefully he encountered verification scores during his doctoral ciriculum. Lol
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the increased access to a larger array of data has allowed for greater scrutiny of every failure, as well, which fuels this misperception. It runs twice as often now, too, so obviously there will be more variablity.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, statistically speaking, you and a few pro mets are incorrect.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro isn't the same; it's better.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Crickets... I at least referenced it in my blogs during previous seasons, albeit usually to illustrate why the euro was preferred, but probably won't this year.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Upslope snows at 2000' elevations in NNE are always an extraordinary phenomenon to watch unfold. However given my proclivity to gravitate towards anomalous weather events that impact an abundance of people, preferably myself included, I am struggling to spare $hits to give-
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The EURO had a negative NAO last season.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think so, if they are throwing the towel on measurable...i think the map that I posted last night is still feasible. We have work to do, though.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a light event is possible, but mainly rain would not suprise me.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    You also said on Monday morning that you thought it was coming...
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/first-measurable-snowfall-possible.html Not feeling a big event, but first measurable possible for many.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems like stakes are highest in Maine....upside here outside of 495 and n of pike is like 5-9", with 2-5" more likely. Maine is either a blizzard or a mehlizzard...leaning towards the latter.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Compare 12z UK, below, and 18z EURO, top left...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very similar snowfall output...probably going to be more correct.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    18z euro is much more in line with 12z UK...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't believe that F5Weather, formerly eurowx, doesn't have 18z euro...even wxbell does now. I may switch back...
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