40/70 Benchmark

Here is how the Eastern Mass Weather thoughts laid out on 11/12/18 for the month of December fared. "The current scandinavian ridge should retrograde towards Greenland for the first couple of weeks of December, some significant snows are likely for much of New England". The period of negative NAO did indeed materialize near the onset of the month, but unfortunately the system was forced well to the south of New England by overwhelming confluence. "The PNA may struggle to become established this early, however if it can, the northern mid atlantic may join the fray". The decline of a robust period of PNA to begin the month coupled with the eroding negative NAO to deliver the goods for the southern mid atl and southeast. "The blocking pattern should break down mid month, and there will likely be Grinch storm in the vicinity of Christmas, unlike last season". Temperatures should average out near normal for most of the east by month's end, biased colder early, and milder late. If anything, slightly above average for the mid atlantic, and below average in New England". This was a good call, as evidenced by the monthly departure map below, however truth be told, the gradient was a bit further the north across New England than has been anticipated. Additionally, although a temperature forecast was not put forth for the entire country, the warmth especially across the upper midwest was likely more intense than would have been expected, as the +EPO interlude and associated Pac jet were not expected. This may be due, at least in part, to the MJO amplification through phases 4-6 that was incited by the SSW, which also was unexpected. Although a technical SSW was not forecast, the anticipated evolution for the rest of the winter is not impacted. In fact, it only serves to further buttress confidence on the emergence of NAO blocking later in the month of January . "The NAO blocking breaks down in time for the holidays, go figure, however around this time the Pacific side grows more supportive, so this mid winter break will not be as prolonged, nor as mild as last season, especially across New England. The month should average anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal across New England, and 2-3 degrees above normal beneath the 40th parallel. The month of January looks a lot like 2015 and 2005, and we expect a similar evolution. Complete with a monster Archambault event anywhere from January 20th to February 8th, after which the Atlantic couples with the Pacific to induce cross polar flow and set the stage for a memorable February".

Zero changes for January, or the balance of winter for that matter, as previously referenced SSW is underway....still looks to finish slightly above average temps in the aggregate, as laid out in November. Everything remains on track for the window of opportunity for severe winter weather to begin on January 20th through approximately February 20, as originally laid out on November 12th. Absolutely zero has/will be altered or "pushed back". It is in fact guidance that had been trying rush said changes adjusting to better fit the the original date of 1/20, as anticipated. Other forecasters who had been predicting a severely cold month of January in the mean are also scrambling to adjust expectations, which has also clouded the perception of the general populous and is creating unwarranted consternstion amongst winter weather aficionados. It is most unfortunate that this concept is lost on some posters. Will update with a more precise comparison of December evolution relative to expectation, but the forecast was a success, in contrast to some other outlooks arguing for a harsher onset to boreal winter 2018-2019.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/changes-afoot-for-christmas-severe.html

Quick update...no changes. Ironically enough, it is the southeastern states of Virginia and North Carolina that are receiving the major snows since the PNA did join forces with high latitude blocking, but this is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. The blocking did indeed materialize, and is on borrowed time, as advertised. Everything seems to be going as planned..too bad the early Dec event didn't work out for most of the east coast. Bad luck. This may sound silly, but I'm ambivalent about December struggling....if you look back at all of our most prolific weak modoki seasons, they all struggled in December snowfall wise, with the exception of one....December 1977. December 2014, 2004, and 1968 were all fairly meager snowfall months. December 1976 was a prolific month during a weak el nino, but it was not a modoki. It is not difficult to envision how this month could have easily verified similarly to 12/77 had a moose fart drifted at a slightly different angle, and the northern stream had synced with that s SW, as opposed to suppressing it. The moral of the story is that December 2018 was largely anticipated to be frustrating from a snowfall standpoint, or at least it should have. My hunch is that something will work out from about most of sne points northward in latitude as the month begins to draw to a close. This will provide the impetus for some unrealistic expectations for the first half of January, which will engender some feelings of unwarranted disappointment, only to be reinvigorated by the real deal as the month ages and the late January/February bonanza ensues. Just my two cents- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/deceptive-early-season-respite-november.html

+2"

+6.5"

Don't they use 1980-2010 period to derive ENSO anomaly?

I have read that modoki events may be more common place in a warmer world....why, not sure-

Oh, yea its possible......but for now, show me a weak modoki ENSO event and I'll show you an above average seasonal snowfall forecast for SNE. lol

So what are you saying, its a coincidence that we are still getting severe winters during weak el nino events, and they are not manifesting themselves as they have historically ?

Global is one thing, but it looked pretty status quo to me stateside..weak el nino and uber el nino behaved as I expected....but annual precip in the Philippines...maybe.

What I mean is that ENSO related forcing has manfiested itself into the atmosphere as it always has climotalogically speaking.....dependent upon intensity and modoki value, etc..

Enjoy. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/11/winter-outlook-2018-2019-return-of.html I have neglected family and friends since Friday night, so bare with me on the questions, but I will do the best that I can.

Try now. BTW, I will be in Methuen this season.

I forget my username and password.

Is this why you were suggestion that some residual impact from Pinatubo may have contributed to the abysmal arctic regime of the 1994-1995 winter?

BTW, I actually started suspecting my area was going to jack just before and as the event started.... 1) It began as rain, which oddly enough excited me because I knew damn well KPYM wasn't going to jack and the system was a bit west and warmer than progged. 2) The death band moved near Montaulk PT, which is a pretty good proxy for systems that nail my area. As an aside, I think this season would have made a run for the seasonal record had a weak el nino developed as I had thought last summer...no way we would have punted Feb.

That, and I was awake for the peak of this one. I crashed at midnight with 1' in the ground in 1997. 3.62LE on 4/1 vs 1.7" on 3/13? No contest, there.

You're right. I just checked the pic...24.7". My bad.

To answer your other question....I think April 1997 was much more impressive, but I enjoyed this one the most.

No, I know.....not at all being defensive. I'm serious.....would like analysis from someone skilled to corroborate.

Don't be afraid to be honest...if you want to call BS, please do....I stand by it, and I think your work will confirm that. Appreciate the analysis. FYI...check out the Reading, MA coop for April 1997...total snowfall was 27", but max depth was 21". My max depth was 23.7"..snowfall 31".

Scott, here is my second clearing at 5pm.....20.5" First clearing was 8" at 11am. I received over 4"/hr rates between about 5 and 7pm.

I added a pretty extensive passage regarding this. PS: The Reading coop made up with the 1.7" that I had estimated. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/meteorological-deflategate-editorial.html