40/70 Benchmark

GFS def. toned down a bit from 18z...not sure what folks are looking at....not a huge deal, but noticeable.

I want you to rain like hell, then dry slot.

Agree...18z may have been a bit zonked, but I think its generally right. NAM likes to play pin the tail on the weenie with little pieces of convection out in the ocean.

Knowing the EURO, it will trend Monday into something lame, like 3-6", then Monday it will be even hair more amped.

Exactly.

Is Saturday trends back some, we had better see Monday do the same, or I'm going to melt all over the forum

Toned down..sure. The NAM? That would be a modeling failure.

A 12-14mb fluke at hr 36? Cmon, Scott....BS. That's a modeling travesty.

If this ever fell apart, oh the melts.

Reminds me a bit of the Jan 2011 system...

I think it has the right idea...you would hope, at this range lol

Its just never wise to do a 180 in one shift..

Cf prob in cj land.

Thats what I had last night..

+3.5" 34.5"

I had 3-6" back to 128 and 4-8" from scooter se on my first call map from last night. 1-3" interior...still decent for now.

FEB 23 Sunday's Rains and What Went Wrong in Winter 2018-2019 Yet another bundle of energy trundles up into the mid latitudes well to out west and through the great lakes this weekend, rinse and repeat. This promises to be an even warmer evolution from what we witnessed on Wednesday night, as the antecedent airmass will not be as cold, thus will put up less resistance to the the southwesterly flow aloft eradicating it. Energy will continue to focus to your west, thus limiting snowfall until either: 1) A ridge of high pressure develops over the west coast, causing the energy to dig southward. 2) High latitude blocking materializes in the vicinity of greenland and the Davis straight, which would force the energy south, as well. A very cold antecedent airmass can mitigate this somewhat, and fore a redevelopment to the east, near the coast. This is what took place on Wednesday night. However since the airmass in place over the area this weekend is not very cold, the low in the mid levels is not transferring to the coast until it is past our latitude. Thus the ski areas are saved. Sound familiar? Perhaps locales to the north of the Mass pike in our region will see a few flakes near the onset. Regional Evolution Note that as the precipitation begins later tonight and early Sunday morning, temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere are already approaching the freezing point, which greatly limits any potential accumulations to primarily north of the Mass/New Hampshire border, which will be quite light at that. The precipitation only runs in advance of the mid level warmth by a very slim margin. Ice should not be much of an issue since the low level cold will not be as impressive of as tenacious as Wednesday night. On Thursday when the First Call was made, it appeared as though there could be some slight accumulations north of the Mass pike. First Call, issued 11pm Thursday. However it now appears as though most accumulation will be relegated to central and northern New England. Final Call: At this point, it is entirely fair to question whether some of the energy that has been ejected into the west all season long will ever begin making to the east coast to produce a coastal system. More of the Same Ahead In a complete reversal from this fall, the short answer from Eastern Mass Weather is "no". While it is possible that there may yet be significant snowfalls for the area, which climo dictates that there will be, we still see no signs of either significant east coast ridging, or north atlantic blocking. Here is the latest European ensemble suite. It is noted that while some semblance of a PNA ridge out west attempts to develop, it remains both fleeing and insufficient to prevent jet energy from consolidating and digging too far to the west. While the European suite is not infallible, and has in fact led us astray many times this season, there exists no "smoking gun" or impetus for change. One of the most ineffective el nino events on record is waning, and there are no signs that the polar stratosphere will warm. What went "wrong" will be discussed more extensively in this spring's outlooks verification analysis, however we believe that the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that took place early this season was quite different from the one that led to last season's record March snows. And it ultimately worked to enhance factors inimical to high latitude blocking this season, and act as a source of deconstructive interference for mechanisms that would have assisted in the development of blocking otherwise. Eastern Mass Weather not only failed to foresee the development of a sudden stratospheric warming this season, but it was also poorly diagnosed once it became obvious that one would occur. It was this, in conjunction with an el nino that never really manifested itself into the tropical forcing, that proved fatal to the success of the winter outlook. While we correctly diagnosed the meager ability of the el nino to impart an influence on the tropical forcing regime and hemispheric pattern, as evidenced by the recognition of the paltry MEI and inclusion of the 1969 analog, we interpreted this as affirmation that the event would remain weak, and thus favorable for increased blocking and southern New England snows. However instead of asserting itself as weak events typically do, it never asserted itself at all, thus there was no impetus for a change from the residual la nina forcing from 2018. We believe that this also took place in 1969, on the heels of a cool-neutral ENSO winter, however intense blocking proved instrumental in the historic February that evolved across the area. It is believed that the recovery of the polar vortex in the wake of the SSW that took place on New Year's day proved fatal to the development of any blocking as the second half of the season evolved. And since the SSW was centered on the other side of the globe, and not over the north atlantic, it only served to enhance the residual la nina like intraseasonal MJO signal, which also proved inimical to the development of blocking. In Summary: 1) El Nino peak ONI was well forecast, however the implications of the meager MEI that was correctly deemed as analogous to 1969 was poorly diagnosed as proof that el nino would remain weak. It was non existent, thus the residual la nina intraseasonal MJO signal was enhanced. We believe that this was intimately connected to the poorly forecast and poorly diagnosed SSW. 2) Eastern Mass Weather did recognize the November Scandinavian blocking as a precursor to a season with a great proclivity for poleward heat flux/transfer...another parallel to 1969. We simply interpreted this as a BIG indicator for blocking. However this may have worked out TOO well. A SSW was NOT expected, but one did occur near the onset of the New Year. First of all, this probably served to shorten the duration of the favorable early December period, as the period preceding SSW events is usually hostile too blocking. Additionally, once it materialized, the problem was that unlike last season, this SSW was not focused over the north atlantic, but rather the other side of the globe. Thus it did NOT promote NAO blocking, but instead amplified the hostile MJO, which due to no show el nino, was mired in la nina like phases like 1969. This also set up the recovery of the PV, which in conjunction with la nina like MJO worked to deconstructively interfere with second half blocking typical of weak modoki el nino seasons. It was a very flawed outlook that still provided plenty of instructional value, thus it will benefit future outlooks. Unfortunately, that if of little solace to southern New England snow lovers this season.

+3" 31"

+2" 28" on the season..

+5" 26" on the season.

3.5" last night, 1" from the squalls +4.5" 21" on the season.

+7" 5" of snow, followed by 2" of sleet. 16.5" on the season.

JAN 8 Two Weeks Remaining; Severe Second Half of Winter Grows Imminent Mother nature has managed to deconstruct yet another significant winter storm threat with nothing short of surgical precision, as tomorrow's system, which had appeared relatively ominous last week, looks to pass to our north. Thus the cold will be once again eradicated not long after precipitation commences, sequence that has become all too familiar throughout boreal winter 2018-2019. And after perhaps an inch of snow near the New Hampshire border, with potentially more in the higher elevations of the Berskshires, followed by a period of icy mix tomorrow, the majority of precipitation will fall as rain, especially from the Connecticut river valley points eastward. Then the attention shifts to next weekend, and as of right now, the region of southern New England looks largely to dodge and weave yet another blow from old man winter. This time the system looks to pass by in the other direction, as the most significant impacts look to remain out to sea, however some light to perhaps moderate snowfall remains possible....especially south and east of Boston. Both the GFS ensemble suite: As well as the superior ECWF ensemble mean: largely concur on the ridge axis being just a bit to far too the east to allow the downstream flow to buckle enough to lift the system all the way up the coast. While the EPS ridge axis is a bit better more favorably positioned to the west for more impacts, it is significantly flatter, thus it is even less favorable in the aggregate than its GEFS counterpart. Considering the evolution of the first half of the season, it is exceedingly difficult for the beleaguered calvary of winter aficionados to elude the perception of old man winter as an aging middle aged boxer, flailing away in vain during the final moments of a banal career. However old man winter has el nino in his corner, and he may yet be primed to begin landing a succession of devastating blows to local infrastructure once the bell sounds for the second half. Likely Second Half Blocking Trifecta Despite the fact that PNA ridging is typically favored during el nino events, it remained relatively elusive throughout December, which is one of the elements that acted to limit snowfall potential easily in the season. This was expected, as specified in the Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook that was released on November 12th: Negative PNA, vs RNA, Pictured to the Right "As illustrated above, the positive mode of the PNA favors cool, wet toughing over the east, and milder, drier ridging over the west. Conversely, the negative PNA, or RNA, favor inclement weather in the west, and more pleasant sensible weather in the east. Positive phases of both the PDO and PNA are favored due to the forcing regime associated with this modoki el nino event being centered more over the central Pacific". "However since this particular warm ENSO event is late to develop and still in the process of coupling with the atmosphere, as evidenced by the ONI/MEI and AEI values, the early season period during the month of December is most likely to feature negative phases. Both phases should begin to become biased towards positive as we begin the new year, and the fledgling el nino beings to assert itself". -Eastern Mass Weather 11-12-18 Indeed, evidence of the maturation of el nino is beginning to manifest in long term ensemble consensus. Not only are the GEFS and the EPS coming into agreement on blocking over western US, but the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming and subsequent split of the polar vortex is effectively augmenting typical weak modoki climatology in all but ensuring high latitude blocking both over the Arctic and north atlantic, in the vicinity of Greenland. This "blocking trifecta" was evident in the composite of comparable weak modoki events that occurred during a solar minimum, which was presented in the Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook "Fortunately, we here at Eastern Mass Weather in our infinite wisdom, have on hand a composite of weak el nino events that occurred in the vicinity of a solar minimum": Temps: "Note the presence of 1977-1978 on this composite, which is becoming a theme. This season was also a weak modoki el nino with a QBO transitioning into the western shear zone during a solar minimum". Precip: Note the continued emphasis on Miller B formation in this particular composite. H5: Significant degree of high latitude blocking in the vicinity of Greenland Our thoughts remain unchanged from the original presentation last November. "The month of January should average anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal across New England, and 2-3 degrees above normal beneath the 40th parallel. The month of January looks a lot like 2015 and 2005, and we expect a similar evolution. Complete with a monster Archambault event anywhere from January 20th to February 8th, after which the Atlantic couples with the Pacific to induce cross polar flow and set the stage for a memorable February. "What a tremendous difference a year makes. Winter's main course is where it should be climatologically speaking, during February. The sky is the limit for wintery potential this month, as this is as favorable it as it precarious as it gets, not at all unlike February 1978. This is the window for the mid atlantic to see major storm, especially if el nino grows a bit more potent than forecast. However odds favor the most crippling OF impacts being confined to New England. Intense blocking over Greenland, the pole, as well as Alaska and northwestern Canada. The second window for a historic event adjoins the first window, from February 9th through February 20th. After which the pattern relaxes and blocking relents somewhat. The northeast should average 2-4 degrees below average, and the mid atlantic 3-6 degrees below average". "Blocking may not persist as strongly through March as the model implies, as this portion of the forecast is lower confidence. The PNA looks to wane, and there is very high confidence that the robust negative EPO will remain for the entire winter. Although this is another favorable regime for cold delivery, the source will likely be depleted by this point, and some moderation will be the rule as the airmass grows stale. The month should average out near normal across the mid atlantic, and 1-2F degrees above average throughout New England". -Eastern Mass Weather 11-12-18 In closing, here is a list of snowfall through yesterday, January 6, for Boston during some of the most prominent modoki el nino analog seasons. Followed by eventual seasonal totals to the right. 2015: 4.5" 110.6" 2005: 18.0" 86.6" 1978: 9.7" 85.1" 1969: 6.0" 53.8" 2018: .2" ? Eastern Mass Weather snowfall forecast and prognostications for aggregate December through March readings of some prominent atmospheric indexes. Index Value Predicted '18-'19 DM Value Range Actual '18-'19 DM Value Departure From Verification Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) .40 to .70 Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) .25 to .55 ENSO Weak Modoki El Nino (0.9 to 1.1C ONI) (DJF) (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -1.20 to -1.50 Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.35 to -.60 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.10 to -.35 City Predicted Snowfall Actual Percent Departure From Forecast Range Boston, MA (BOS) 80-90" New York, NY (CPK) 40-50” Philadelphia, PA (PHL) 35-45” Baltimore, MD (BWI) 20-30” Washington, DC (DCA) 15-25” Albany, NY (ALB) 75-85” Hartford, CT (BDL) 65-75” Providence, RI (PVD) 55-65" Worcester, MA (ORH) 90-100” Tolland, CT (TOL) 80-90” Methuen, MA 90-100” Hyannis, MA 45-55" Portland, ME (PWM) 85-95" Burlington, VT (BTV) 85-95" Concord, NH (CON) 75-85” Posted 16 hours ago by Raymond Spinazola

Mixed results in this area on second year el ninos...87-88 was meh, but 77-78 was great.

+.50" 9.5" on the season.