40/70 Benchmark

0.1 for the low. Great radiation spot.

Down to 6.8

I'm almost halfway to last year's total lol

+1"...done. 20"

06-07 was my first, too.

I wouldn't worry yet if I were towu, either....we saw what happened after one early storm to kick off last year.

+19" Added and shoveled.

@donsutherland1 I think you are on the right track, Don. Very similar to my thoughts.

Looked like .75" to me.

Updated December thoughts...not much change. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/wet-holiday-travel-week-leads-to-onset.html

I think he's just pointing out that it wont be another 2015, which I agree with.

Try now....PM storage was full

Back at it again..

Same...thankfully, I'm not forecasting that.

Its a little more...forecast is slightly above. That season was normal to slightly below. We need second half blocking....that is the upward variance. Pacific won't be epic like 05 and 15..at least not for the whole season..

No. Not that warm.

No worries....its relevant.

Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.

Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though. We'll see.

Gotcha. I'm not a big math guy....social worker by trade. I can do that in the future, but the forecast amounts vs actual are there for everyone to see. I'm quite happy with my level of success overall, last year not withstanding.

Thanks, but I'll leave it. Forecast error for me is the percentage that verified seasonal snowfall totals deviated from my forecast range. Regardless, the forecast and verified totals are there to see. It was bad in sne. I focus most on snowfall, and its much less in the northeast than last season's forecast. Additionally, the forecast is not as cold as the composite maps...I specified that. Last season, I forecast an epic second half..this season, its onky salavagable with blocking. It wasn't that warm in the east last year. Good luck-

Thanks, Tom. I have learned alot from your work, as always.

Like I just said in mid atl forum, it was difficult for me to communicate the potential of the second half, while concomitantly conveying that it was lower confidence due to the reliance upon the onset of blocking. I am more confident in the PNA period. I feel at least some blocking materializes second half....but it will suck if it doesn't. Should be some NAO in Dec, too, but transient.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/winter-2019-2020-modified-modoki.html City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 45-55” ? ? New York, NY 20-30" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 17-27" ? ? Baltimore, MD 15-25” ? ? Washington, DC 15-25” ? ? Albany, NY 65-75” ? ? Hartford, CT 50-60” ? ? Providence, RI 40-50” ? ? Worcester, MA 70-80” ? ? Tolland, CT 60-70" ? ? Methuen, MA 65-75” ? ? Hyannis, MA 20-30” ? ? Burlington, VT 80-90" ? ? Portland, ME 70-80” ? ? Concord, NH 65-75” ? ? Index Value Predicted '19-'20 DM Value Range Actual '19-'20 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 0 to .30 ? ? Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) .15 to .45 ? ? ENSO Weak Modoki El Nino (0.3 to 0.5C ONI) (NDJ) 0.5C NDJ ONI .50 Modoki ? (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -.15 to -.45 ? ? Arctic Oscillation (AO) 0 to -.30 ? ? North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.15 to .15 ? ?

I wasn't suprised at all.