40/70 Benchmark

Scott, there was support for a SSW....moreso probably from GFS. But again, no issue with it ultimately not succeeding...

Truth is probably in the middle.

I explained in my blog that the immediate NAO pulse would be from MJO excitement, NOT instantaneous downward propagation, which of course is an absurd concept.

You are right, there is no immediate response with respect to the coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere, which takes a good 3 weeks to a month for propagation and such. However as referenced in my blog, there is a tendency for a successful SSW to excite the MJO response, which I was tentatively progged at extended leads to be in phase 7 or 8 come mid December. Last season, the MJO was entering a la nina like phase at the time of the SSW, which accentuated deconstructive interference of an el Nino that had already been struggling to couple with the atmosphere. This also created an environment even more hostile to blocking during the subsequent recovery of the PV. Anyway, I will not be suprised to see it fail because I only expected minor attacks on the PV early this season, from which it will be able to recover. However some guidance suggested that a SSW would indeed take place a week or two back.

Yea, I wouldn't worry at this point.....if anything, it probably also increases the likelihood that this transitions to more of a miller b look.

Yea, threat is there, but doesn't have to work out...not looking like the SSW is going to succeed, which is why NAO pulse is absent. It can still work out, but confidence sinks a bit.

06-07 was my first, too.

That goes along with my idea for winter nicely....PNA driven December, but more RNA and blocking reliant, thereafter...consistent EPO, variable arctic.

Zero interest.

Right now it does, but we'll see . ....don't be surprised to see a trend north into a miller b evolution.

Yea, no hiatus, but there willl be mild interludes....variable.

Yes. That period is next major impact imo.

Oh, thought you meant this coming weekend..okay.

No, mid month

Threat next week is for real..mentioned that period last week. I'll do an update tomorrow probably.

I'll start clearing the snow from underneath the station.

Glad I didn't live here, then... 18" in Wilmington was like 7" of sand in Methuen lol

I cleared the snow off of the top...not sure. 40.3 now seems reasonable...

I was 41.4 yesterday

You know we are in a lull when talk shifts to NOAA weather radio and TWC sound track circa mid 90s...

One of my better forecasting efforts. Final grade: A https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/december-1-3-two-part-verification.html

Yea, love when confluence sets up shop over me.

Judah backing off SSW prospects ha

Gotcha.

Yea...I'll get riiight on that-