40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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IT'S NOT ANAFRONTAL!!!!!
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I have plenty to learn. This is not one.
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Or I can write a corny poem to mask the failure, while I pat the the dogs..
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I'm not confused about anything. I don't care that it technically isn't anafront... waves following cf passages are low probability threats. I tried to drop it at lets see what happens, but you wouldn't let it go.
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What was Feb 17? You really want to get in a pissing contest about track records? You should clean up your six week outlooks off of your lawn with the doggie doo doo.
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Like I said.. let me know how much you get, then revisit our respective methodologies. Mine has served me well, thanks.
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Why? They don't travel via horse and buggie. ...
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I'll bet against a wave within a few days of frontal passage (anafrontal) producing much. You and Steve let me know how much you get.
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It could of been somebody...
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Still time, just needs to trend quickly.
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Technicality....still from that family and will likely fade.
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Obviously when I say anafrontal is a "fraud five" member, I do not mean that the phenomenon is not real...as @Typhoon Tip pointed out....it is. The "Fraud Five" simply refers to weather phenomena that are usually not something to "hang your hat on", so to speak....at least in our area. IOW, inherently low probability scenarios, but they can and do work out once every 3.5 blue moons, or so.
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I don't think it will take until March. February should be fine.
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Mark, I think Corey said he will be around... we should meet up pre xmas. I'm sure a few more would make it. If its only a few of us, we can be more picky about locale .. .
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I'm almost halfway to last year's total lol
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+1"...done. 20"
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Non winter month? Why? No way...
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1" new today.
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GEFS were also consistent with showing a SSW. Way different than the EPS and euro. Possible, but the timing needs to change....if the high escapes like that, coast will flip to rain.
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In the absence of the -NAO pulse, we are at the mercy of timing, and it is not looking good for mid month. There is still time, but right now the looks of the high over the atlantic does not engender much confidence. That high would have been pinned to our north had the SSW succeeded and excited phase 8 of MJO, but as is, no bueno. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/confidence-waning-for-mid-month-winter.html
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Flurries here.. 32.9
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Anafront is not only a fraud five member, its the president.
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My position in the outlook was that there would be only minor disruptions in Dec, and the pv would be resilient....a SSW in January would fit with my theme of second half blocking. However if the SSW had succeeded in mid Dec, I feel we would have had a big NAO dip, transient as it may be... December going as planned with an active, variable pattern and any NAO transient. Should be PAC driven. Second half NAO driven with less Pacifc.
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Chicken or egg, I guess...as my understanding was that the SSW amplified the MJO, not that the amplified MJO induced the SSW...but like I said, frontier concept and I'm all ears...
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Its debatable because I feel as though that is still poorly understood, but just going by what I have read.
