40/70 Benchmark

I should have been more detailed in indicating less ice in CT river valley, but it is what it is..

35.4/25.6

Just look where the text is...didn't want to more ice boundaries because it would be a mess. .5" is at that latitude of the jack areas in between them. .25" north due to sleet contamination, and .25 in to south due to less cold drain. Exception being higher spots of nw CT.

Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/final-call-protracted-nye-mixed-bag.html

The real snow map:

I disagree with the bolded....short-term mesos often play catchup with that as we close- Still maybe under-modeled....again, this is low level cold. We are all cooked for snow in SNE.

Euro ticked colder

Ideally, I'd like to cloud over at dawn.

39.7/25.7 Bottomed out at 24.8 Too bad clouds couldn't arrive sooner..

I think at worst it mill make it to ORH.....it sounds dumb, but whenever ORH is close to any sort of boundary, err on the wintery side...not to mention the topography is going to shotgun that cold south between the hill and coastal front....more nebulous below ORH latitude.

That is a given.....I always dismiss that and make a deduction based upon knowledge of local climo. They will also often try to place the coastal gradient at like MHT, or KCON, which is of course absurd....its going to be near KLWM, and often times can be the demarcation between 33* air and 19* air, however its still modeled as 27 vs 33. Even mesos just don't have the resolution, though they are improving. This is where experienced forecasters earn their money....or experienced weenies like me earn their 200 blog hits

Here...pick your station: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KLWM&model=nam&time=current&field=prec

I am normally loath to forecast a large quantity of sleet because it seldom works out, but I think this is a case where it may....I think the only comp. that I can recall for over an inch worth of sleet is VD Day 2007....again, not implying 30" of snow in VT and NYS...

I know....great post/info; I was just "clowning" around....I got jokes.

Only difference for MBY maybe a hair less plain rain, since the marine influence often stops a few miles beyond KLWM.

6-12".

Ha...no snow or frz rain here on the NAM...mainly IP with a bit of rain, presumably late Monday night into Tuesday. I buy it.

Agree.

I'm going to post about January hopefully tonight, but def. by the new year....will review seasonal thoughts for January and do post analysis of verification vs thoughts for December. Foot note version is that December has gone pretty much exactly as planned, save for the big PNA not really working out, but we scored anyway. The cold, active storm track and variable NAO did verify, and the cold departures that were focused on the first half of the month were negated to such a degree by the mild second half that we should end up a hair below for the month in the aggregate. This was all according to plan, as the PAC was supposed to go into the toilet and it has.

That is what I am rooting for...give me 3-4" of sleet that will pad the stats, melt slowly and keep my power.

Wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last.

Yea, just give me an ice-clown map...thanks lol

We've already had more breaks than last year...remember that we whiffed on the early December 2018 window. Many got nailed in early December 2019, though I know not everyone. Most of sne, anyway is at least going better than a year ago.

Last season was the inverse of 2014-2015....I'd expect more breaks this year relative to last year, and hopefully a bit more blocking. We don't necessarily need a March 2018, either...

....but the risk is much greater when the PNA is negative and the NAO is positive. That is his point.