40/70 Benchmark

Assessing an ENSO call in mid summer? This is what moderators are for.

It really will hinge on the NAO from about NYC points northward, should the Pacific evolve unfavorably. PDO can be a deal breaker further south.

Damn...I was hoping for another 100" in 30 days.

Any update on this? TIA...

May be a good analog is it goes east-based.

Not a ton to say at this point, but to echo the sentiment above, and I mentioned this in my last blog post, models backed off wholesale last year at this time. Not the case this year. Couple that with climo following two consecutive la nina events, and I am fairly confident of a weak to moderate el nino...early guess would be like +1.0 ish....but like I said before, modoki value is more important than strength, assuming modest intensity...and that is too early to say. We all maybe porked with an east-based event, but given a modoki, I would be rooting on a moderate event below NYC, and weak from there points north.

The warmth issues come with an east based el nino, and that is the same regardless of intensity. You are focused on the wrong variable.. Intensity only becomes an issue if its strong (and these are usually east-based), which this one will not be- Its all about forcing....moderate is generally best for the mid atl...do the climo research, and you will see. Weak favors the northeast...they don't have to be terrible for your area, in fact many are still good, but you run the risk of regimes similar to 2004-2005, etc. Miller B city.

IMHO this just confirms its not going to be a robust event...this is what happens in modest events....it gets beaten back periodically.

You mean a failed el nino? I would.....atmosphere is no longer in la nina state.

The 60s featured multuple warm ENSO/cold PDO couplets.

Mid Atl should root for a moderate el nino since Miller B cyclogenesis would be prevalent in the absence of a potent STJ.

I think moderate el nino is the ceiling....strong was never on the radar imo....warm neutral floor.

BTW, I actually started suspecting my area was going to jack just before and as the event started.... 1) It began as rain, which oddly enough excited me because I knew damn well KPYM wasn't going to jack and the system was a bit west and warmer than progged. 2) The death band moved near Montaulk PT, which is a pretty good proxy for systems that nail my area. As an aside, I think this season would have made a run for the seasonal record had a weak el nino developed as I had thought last summer...no way we would have punted Feb.

That, and I was awake for the peak of this one. I crashed at midnight with 1' in the ground in 1997. 3.62LE on 4/1 vs 1.7" on 3/13? No contest, there.

You're right. I just checked the pic...24.7". My bad.

To answer your other question....I think April 1997 was much more impressive, but I enjoyed this one the most.

No, I know.....not at all being defensive. I'm serious.....would like analysis from someone skilled to corroborate.

Don't be afraid to be honest...if you want to call BS, please do....I stand by it, and I think your work will confirm that. Appreciate the analysis. FYI...check out the Reading, MA coop for April 1997...total snowfall was 27", but max depth was 21". My max depth was 23.7"..snowfall 31".

Scott, here is my second clearing at 5pm.....20.5" First clearing was 8" at 11am. I received over 4"/hr rates between about 5 and 7pm.

Anecdotal, but telling ob.

I added a pretty extensive passage regarding this. PS: The Reading coop made up with the 1.7" that I had estimated. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/meteorological-deflategate-editorial.html

Not a whiteboard, but I had other flat surfaces to ensure that that depth was representative, which it was and always is. Very protected area...depth was a pretty uniform 24"+.

Agree.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/meteorological-deflategate-editorial.html

No qualm with this, and I agree....my point isn't that some folks are foolish for not agreeing that Wilmington has the largest cryophallic in the land, but rather that we need to have one universal method. Chances are that I didn't get the absolute most snow, but its even more likely that we'll never know because its apples to oranges and we need to fix that.