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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. Here is the last one on the EPO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/winter-2020-2021-addendum-5-east.html
  2. These are just basic refreshers to get primed for the actual outlook....if you don't need it, then don't bother. I know that I usually do...especially for the tropical stuff. This should help shorten the finished product and make it more practical for consumption.
  3. Addendum #4: The Pacific Oscillations: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/winter-2020-2021-addendum-4-pacific.html
  4. Addendum #3: The Arctic Atmosphere: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/winter-2020-2021-addendum-3-arctic.html
  5. 1996 was marginal...okay, but by what metric was 2001 a moderate la nina? It was weak by all accounts, as far as I'm concerned.
  6. Drop a "compression of the geopotential medium" bomb and we good.
  7. Winter Outlook 2020-2021 The Hadley Cell has expanded with a great deal of panache. Look for your dopamine elsewhere.... The end-
  8. I forget some of it each offseason, TBH....as I check out. I need to go back over it, myself.
  9. All you will need to do is clink a link. I will be publishing a few more supplementary addendums this week. I will reference them near the onset of each section and link them.
  10. I think you make a great point TBH. like I said, format will be less tedious this season....that background stuff will be option and not baked into the outlook.
  11. I don't value you that as much as some do...I know raindance is big on that. But again.....just because I incorporate an analog does not mean I endorse it 100%. A concept I wish people could grasp more assertively with respect to politics.
  12. Its not a problem if you apply them correctly, which I will attempt to do. Not all about blocking, though....you guys need it to couple with a PNA spike, usually. SNE ca get away with one or the other.
  13. At least you'll have time to read them this season. Learn a few things and revive the Ginxy Gale monthly calls.
  14. Its around average, I think...which makes sense.
  15. Its pretty self explanatory......IMHO those are the best matches using a combo of ENSO intensity and distribution of warmest SST anomalies. I mean, we are mainly referencing "anomalies" when speaking of sensible weather, so I don't see why the end result should be much different. I def. would shy away from using very potent la nina as analog seasons, given that ENSO may not be as a pervasive driver due to AGW.
  16. It can't go on forever...same deal with the Pats. Eventually, even the best step back for a time.
  17. That is not my complete composite....just the three best ENSO matches by a combo of structure and intensity.
  18. How does Arozarena and Brousard's a$$ taste?
  19. Last update from me until go-time Novie 11. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/mixed-signals-regarding-enso-for-winter.html
  20. More Scott and Will than me....but yea. Passive aggressive extraction of information.
  21. He's trying to coax you into asserting otherwise, so that he can fit snuggly into his pinstriped footie jammies tonight with a peace of mind.
  22. @Dr. Dews, What I meant was this winter should be serviceable...IOW, not a complete no-show, like last year.
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