40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I Know....brings in alot of uncertainty...no doubt.

You have to read the entire post...I wasn't speaking on that exact solution, but was speculating as to implications of a continues trend towards faster stalling further from shore. People read what they want to-

Yea, if it slides down the coast, that it probably worst case for most.

"Should this trend continue"-

Duration...sure, assuming it comes in quickly enough. But I'm not sure how a case could be made against a reduced intensity at LF.

Trend is going to being to be towards less impact should this trend continue....main threat being fresh water flooding.

Likely means a weaker LF, so there's that. Def. no more than a cat 3.

Shocker.

ERC can sometimes be accompanied by like a 50mph decrease in winds....but I don't think this one will. JMO.....sorry for the clutter.

I think a best case scenario for the coast would have been a later ERC, but tough to tell for sure...could very well be another. The ambient environment when the ERC begins is often a good indicator of how well it will recover, thereafter, so it will likely shrug it off tomorrow.

1994 was the polar opposite of those two seasons in the east. 1968 and 2004 were two of the snowiest winters on record in eastern New England, 1994 was one of the most mild winters we have seen.

Euro weakened this month, too....from 1.1 to like .8.

Yea, I think .3-.4ish is on point for the modiki..likely to be a less prevalent STJ vs 2010, too....more Miller Bish, potentially.

Interesting. Backs up my conclusion that a weak event is favored, too. Glad our we are in agreement. I'm thinking around .9C NDJ peak, with about a .4 modoki (moderately west-based)....but insanely early and subject to change...especially in relation to the latter. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/potential-weak-moderate-el-nino-analogs.html

I'm wondering if the modiki value during the peak tri-monthly ONI period may be more closely correlated with the DJF forcing regime than the DJF modiki value itself... 2007 would argue against that since the drop in the modiki value mid winter coincided with the warm stretch, and the late season spike with the latter winter resurgence. Interesting-

Funny, 1969 really only went bonkers with modoki in January...all through the fall it was more moderately modiki....a la 2014-15. Interesting. I'm going to have to decide which monthly calculations to utilize in past analogs......for instance, an average of O, N, D, readings, etc.... Tough call.

Nevermind...dumb question. Scale is the same for both ENSO states because a positive modiki value entails cooler anomalies in region 1.2, regardless...long day.

So, negative modiki values in a la nina are akin to positive modiki values in an el nino?

Just reading back over this, and your information is so helpful....I understand the modiki values much better. I'm not a fan of just posting an sst map and going "look, modoki"!...I mean, you obviously get a good idea that way, but I like to utilize metrics to convey data in a more precise and accurate manner, and I was at a loss for how to go about that relative to modoki. Problem solved. So, the last value, the 4th, in that table is the modiki value...Box B roughly corresponds to 1.2 and some of region 3....which regions to box A and C denote, 4 and 3.4? TIA.

Thanks, guys.

Where do you get those modoki value charts?

2006-07 was moderate.

If its east based, I would favor 2006 over 1997....this event and 1997 are two totally disparate ends of the intensity spectrum.

JMHO..but I think its dead-on...like intensity similar to last year's la nina...like 1.0C.

Yea..similar forcing regimes.