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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just about to post that region 1.2 is very malleable and prone to large fluctuations over relatively short intervals of time. I wouldn't read too much into it yet.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are no absolutes in seasonal forecasting, but modoki winters are harsher in the east on average....unequivocally. But I agree that it is prudent to search for avenues for deviation from the expected.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take that bet-
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree....I'd be surprised at any significant intensification.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Been one of the more interesting evolutions that I can recall..that is for sure.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd be stunned.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Unless this think goes full tilt Harvey on us, which I doubt, but possible....its not going to be upper echelon. Most impressive aspect of the wind will be duration, but it won't be severe. JMO....very damaging event, nonetheless.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the surge will be comparable to Ike, but freshwater flooding maybe much more prevalent.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    It will be a strong cat 1 to cat 2 at LF IMO.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, there is still a small window.. you are correct. We will see.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now. Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This scenario if probably more costly in terms of damage than a tightly wound cat 4 or even 5.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree 100 percent. I know what Anthony meant, but it was poorly articulated.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    The wind would be less severe, but more cane force over a larger area and the flooding just as bad.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hope folks around my old stomping grounds of Camp Lejune heed warnings...yikes.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed. Here are my latest thoughts: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/powerful-hurricane-florence-continuing.html
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think its an apples to apples comparison, though....Harvey was in the maturing part of its life cycle. Once they have matured, gone through ERCs etc, it can be tricky as far as seeing extended periods of bonafide intensification. I think we've seen peak intensity, but just an educated guess.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a cat 3.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Overall it looks a little better since completing the ERC, I guess.....but its holding its own for the most part. Recon seems to be confirming this. I'm kind of doubting we see much more intensification at this point. JMHO.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    System looks to be in steady state intensity wise to me.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly what I was thinking. Thanks.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we don't know. Revisit...I feel strongly that it will be weakening upon approach given a stall scenario due to upwelling/potential shear increase, but certainly other aspects could be every bit as damaging. We'll see.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    You disagree that the stall would result in a weaker LF? Possibly just as devastating, but weaker.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, all I said. Wasn't a forecast.
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