Great post. I flagged 12z Saturday in my AM blog as the crucial point that the EURO phases that system, and other guidance as of 00z last night, failed to do so as proficiently. Transent ridging over intermountain west aids that.
I'm skeptical for now.....also feel the transient intermountain ridge out west is causing these changes more so than the confluence streak...that looks like its always been therecto me.
Yes, January has always looked mild to me.
I'm in agreement with the RNA....those depictions for February will be right if the Atlantic doesn't pan out.
I still think that it will.