40/70 Benchmark

Its mainly under region 3, not 1.2.

2006 was above 1.0C for a protracted period of time at this point...really nothing like that right now. Could we get there? I guess, but long way to go, and I bet against it.

Yes, the subsurface warmth has extended further to the east, but it was so extremely lopsided towards the west before that this was bound to happen as el nino matures. Its still just as warm to the west, and the vast majority of warmth remains west of region 1.2, which is between about 80 and 90* longitude.

It don't really think it matters whether the autumn has evolved similarly, but agree there are issues with that analog.

JMHO...but people focus too much on the instability of region 1.2. Making basin wide proclamations because its spiked in the last week to ten days. That is what that region does....its unstable. We see it every year. It jumped to +.07....no big deal imo...its been ice cold all fall. It was 1.1C to begin October 2014. It was +.06C the week of Nov 11, 2009, +.05C Oct 20, 2004, +.09C Oct 16, 2002. It may not end up an extreme modoki event, sure.....but even some very good modoki years saw warm spikes in region 1.2. It doesn't necessarily mean much.

Wow...that is pretty strongly west-based.

Agree.

Yes, your area absolutely wants moderate....though weak isn't bad. Generally speaking, weaker el nino correlates to negative NAO...but obviously there are plenty of exceptions.

Yea...marginal. I buy it...look at the subsurface. Ventrice has been all over the ongong atmospheric reorientation, while others were spouting off about 2012. This el nino was never in jeopardy. I estimated .8 or .9 as a peak is one of my blogs this fall, and still feel good about that.

Big jump...from like .6 to 1.1C

Not my composite....I was just doing that to illustrate the el nino years that you featured in your chart.

Aren't all regions warmer relative to last season.....la nina vs developing el nino.

On average......but they can have occurred in as close of a succession as 9 years apart. Here are some forecasts:

Its not a cop out...it's a minimum relative to that particular cycle. Its like saying a low temp is a cop out because it was lower last week.

Why wouldn't the minimum matter?

I agree RE 1953-'54...pretty good analog. That is one of three weak el nino events that coincided with a solar minimum....the other two being '76-'77 and '77-'78, of course.

The only multi year el nino events that took place near a solar minimum are '77-'78 and '87-'88.

I agree. Awesome posts. Thank you.

Yea, I have this season as slightly-moderately west-based, as well. Agree.

Certainly doesn't hurt, but I'm thinking it merely ensures that we verify an el nino.

Looks a bit more decidedly modoki than 2006, too.

Is this why you were suggestion that some residual impact from Pinatubo may have contributed to the abysmal arctic regime of the 1994-1995 winter?