40/70 Benchmark

Probably start an ERC by dawn.

I said the same thing in my final write up.

I would be prepared north of the cone, as well...hint, hint.

Well, I hope Santa brings me a cat 5 trimmer.

Catastrophic Surge Event Likely for Tampa Bay Predawn on Thursday From Hurricane Milton Final Call for Hurricane Milton Current Situation: As of 2 PM, EDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton is centered near latitude 22.5N and longitude 88.2W, or approximately 520 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph and the minimum central pressure is 923 mb. The system is moving ENE at 9 mph and an acceleration more towards the NE is anticipated tonight. Final Track Forecast for Milton: The track forecast philosophy is identical to First Call issued on Saturday. The trough currently amplifying in the Gulf of Mexico will turn Milton more towards the northeast and accelerate it tonight. Then around the time the storm makes landfall on the west coast of Florida during the predawn hours of early Thursday AM, the system will fall more under the influence of a fast, zonal flow of westerlies along the northern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Greater Antilles, as the Gulf of Mexico trough begins to de-amplify. The will cause yet another recurve back to more of a due easterly or east-northeast heading. When exactly this occurs will be crucial to the point of landfall, as if it happens prior to landfall, then Tamp Bay may be spared the worst of the surge. This would be a worst case scary for the Venice to Forty Myers stretch of shoreline. However, if it happens after landfall, then the storm is likely to make it further north and place the Tampa Bay area in greater peril. Currently the consensus of model guidance favors the former scenario, which would be ideal for Tampa Bay. However, as was the case with Hurricane Helene, sometimes the consensus is incorrect. Final Intensity Forecast for Milton: The most favorable period for rapid intensification was forecast in First Call to be Monday night into today (Tuesday), however, the cyclone was able to consolidate the fledgling central dense overcast faster than anticipated. In fact, the rate of Milton's intensification on Monday was so astounding that it managed to become the fifth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, with a minimum central pressure of 897 mb and an eye diameter of just 3.5 miles at peak intensity. This immense and earlier than anticipated intensification took Milton from a category one hurricane to a category five in just 12 hours. While it is difficult to exactly why this occurred, is likely due to the very small nature of the circulation in conjunction with the fact that is passed over an area of very high TCHP just northwest of the Yucatan, as its outflow was being aided to the north by the approaching trough. While this historic bout intensification on Monday was both absolutely mesmerizing and unanticipated, it does little to alter the intensity forecast moving forward. The system recently completed an eye wall replacement cycle, during which the tiny initial inner eye wall collapsed, leading to a sudden spike in minimum central pressure to 942 mb and associated drop in maximum sustained winds from 180 mph to 145 mph. However, clearly the process has completed and the system's new 12 nm wide eye has taken over. This has allowed for some re-intensification and some additional recovery is possible over the next 12 hours or so. Conditions during this stretch will remain quite favorable, as the system is just now entering the loop current and remains in a moist environment with low wind shear. Although this was originally the specified time for rapid intensification in the First Call, the extreme initial intensity and post eye wall replacement cycle structure may act to limit intensification from this point onward to a degree, however, it is likely that Milton regains category five status and there are already signs that this is indeed imminent. Milton has approximately 12-15 hours left for intensification before it begins to be more heavily influenced by the mid latitude trough amplifying in the western Gulf of Mexico, which is already beginning to impinge on the far northwestern quadrant of the system's outflow. Milton should be encountering enough wind shear by the predawn hours of Wednesday that any intensification should have halted and weakening will commence during the daylight hours. Note that while the hurricane will eventually encounter upwards of 50 kts of wind shear over the final 18-24 hours leading up to landfall early Thursday, the adverse impact of said shear will be somewhat mitigated by the fact that it Milton will be largely moving with and not against it. Be that as it may, the wind shear should be sufficient as to disrupt the core enough to allow dry air in association with the incoming trough to be entrained into the circulation, thus hastening the rate of weakening overnight Wednesday and for the final 12 or so hours prior to landfall. This will cause the circulation to become very lopsided with the major convection heavily biased towards the northern semicircle of the circulation, which will likely act to augment seemingly land averse wobbles that tropical systems often take when close to land. This could entail a delay in the more eastern recurve until after the system is already shore and result in a landfall just to the north of Tampa Bay, which would result in a catastrophic 10-15' + of storm surge the likes of which this region has not seen since 1921. **Hurricane Milton is likely to be one of the costliest natural disasters in US history. Please heed evacuation orders because it does not need to be one of the most deadly**. Final Call: FIRST CALL: Issued 10pm Saturday 10/7:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/catastrophic-surge-event-likely-for.html

If it beats yesterday's peak, I'll show up at the SNE xmas gathering with @WxWatcher007shaved into my chest.

Maybe out running a trough a bit and getting over the loop current. This is the window that I hilighted for RI on Saturday....yesterday's Rita redux threw me for a loop.

Usually conflicting observation regarding intensity trends and ambiguity concerning structure equate to steady-state.

I think that will be delayed until post landfall...some guidance tries to do it right at or even before, which would be great for TB.

I could even envision a scenario where this makes its way up towards Cedar Key as it carries the momentum from the lopsided convection and executes one of those land evasion wobbles into the southern reaches of the big bend. The HMON shows this.

That would tug it north.

I get what @jbenedetis saying because the pressure does contribute to the surge, but obviously the max surge will be just to the right of the eye because forward momentum aided wind is also a factor.

I think a best case scenario is for the shear and dry air to impact the system at the onset of another EWRC. They are especially vulnerable to detrimental enviornmental factors at that time because the internal structure is in a state of flux and the core often has openings.

Seeing a pretty definitive trend on guidance to hook this right just prior to LF, which may be a (relative) saving grace for TB in terms of surge.

I think a 30mb rise in 12 hours is pretty steep....about the best one can hope for given how pristine the antecedent structure was, as others have mentioned. However, it was so intense to begin with that this still leaves us with a remarkably intense system, unfortunately....and one that is more expansive and capable of generating deadly surge, as well as a wider envelope of power-disrupting winds.

That is a relatively large eye now...yikes. I wouldn't expect the pressure to come up to much more with that look.....up about 30mb in 12 hours from peak, which is to be expected from an EWRC in a system with a 3.5mi wide eye. JMO, but I don't think the Yucatan played much if any role in the weakening...it was just about all internally driven.

This is simply due to the angle of approach.

Yea, I have seen it a few times, but it is rare...I want to say that Dorian did it? Andrew did it.

Yea, that is the window that I honed in on when I analyzed it on Saturday..I didn't expect it to pull a Wilma today.

You guys are quick...meant '20..typo

Unreal. I can't believe what went on today...colleague of mine made the astute observation using an altimetry of ocean currents that Milton may have availed itself of Helene's upwelling by feasting on very warm waters that wrapped around the Yucatan. Final Call tomorrow.

Looks like raindance deleted his x account. Not sure if he is going to be posting his outlook as planned this week.

Its about exactly Andrew's intensity.

Telling you bro, Clearwater.