40/70 Benchmark

Based on what?

Try now. BTW, I will be in Methuen this season.

I forget my username and password.

Sums up perfectly why I don't think its going to be an exceptionally wintery December back east. There isn't much to support any sustained early season blocking.

Usually around the 12th.

I think what he is insinuating in a more technical manner is what I have been saying....this event is not as strong as 2002. This has been my sole issue with that analog all along, and why I think this will be a more Miller B oriented season than that one was. AKA, not quite as snowy in the mid atl. Not bad, either, though...could still be good.

Yea, nothing new in my eyes. I still like a weak modoki event. Not extreme pike 2009 or 1968, but modoki, nonetheless.

What are the implications of this?

Sign me up for above average precip and normal to slightly above normal temps....basically 2004-2005.

Pretty good bet this winter will be better for your area....can't get any worse. :LOL:

There is def. some support for another Pos NAO season in the mean.....my hunch is that it may be more biased positive early, and negative late....kind of similar to last year. QBO is not as supportive to NAO help, either. The stratosphere is pretty cool, too....some work to do there, def.

There were circles that predicted that, actually....unless you mean completely unpredicted by the Euro. There were some signs in the analog set before the season even started.

Like last year....models kept trying to build an NAO prematurely in the long range, which I, and many others correctly called BS on because there was no impetus for the change. However once the polar stratosphere began to warm dramatically, there was reason to take the guidance more seriously by the time extreme blocking was modeled in March. I'm sure we had some folks who kept staring at past verification curves for NAO and continued to dismiss, but they were patently wrong to do so in the end. Interpret data first, and look to guidance for affirmation. All that being said, you have obviously interpreted the data differently than I, and thus are skeptical of model output that differs...which is fine. I'm just explaining why the past failure of the EURO seasonal outlook in and of itself does not sway me.

For me personally, I couldn't care less about that. My only take away is that the the model consensus overwhelmingly corroborates my interpretation of the data, which is also strongly supported by ENSO climatology. IMHO, this is the correct way to utilize model guidance...both within the context of seasonal, and medium range forecasting. Its not about blindly accepting or discarding their output based upon past performance (not saying you are)....though all else being equal, sure. But optimally, its about knowing how the model has arrived at the solution it has, and whether or not one agrees with it.

Still not much subsurface warmth in 1.2. Mostly region 3.

Not nearly as east-based as 2015, either. I see what you are saying in that el nino may not die, but I don't think it means a ton for this winter....maybe increases the likelihood of a two year event.

You don't start getting into 1983, 1998 or 2016......in no way, shape, or form. Those are the strongest events on record. This is not going to be strong. The highest tri monthly peak that I can fathom based upon climatological precedence is about +1.2. Not all of the that warmth always makes it to the surface, either.

Sure, its not perfect....but in order for your outlook to verify in this portion of the country, it would need to be a$$ backwards, 180 degrees wrong. I don't think that is going to be the case considering its outlook not only fairy closely matches most other guidance, but is fairly representative of weak el nino climo. It has been relatively consistent for several months, as well.

DM is December through March. I mean...yea, good bet this winter falls somewhere in between 2006 and 2002, which isn't saying much because they fell at opposite ends of the winter spectrum on the east coast. I think it will be more like 2002, and not at all like 1994..save for maybe a bit of similarity to Feb 1995 on the east coast, but more polar assist. I am also quite certain that should the (December through March) H5 composite on the EURO seasonal verify, the NE US will be neither warm, nor dry. But no one is going to agree on everything...you obviously put a good deal of effort in, and it was a splendid presentation. Good luck.

Nice write up. Not sure I would incorporate the super el nino of 1983 into the analog set, but.....we'll see. Question, you seem to weigh the EURO heavily into your ENSO prognostication, however you have ostensibly disregarded its DM output across the US. Any particular reason? Thanks.

Gotcha.

Very minute chance this el nino becomes strong, but never say never, I guess.

The ECMWF and UK seasonals certainly scream "modoki".

Looks like the vast majority are in a range of .5-1.2C in region 1.2. It also may be worth noting that the EURO made a pretty sizable jump in the el nino across the board, so it wasn't just 1.2. Region 3.4 went from .6 to 1.2C monthly peak...not tri monthly.

If you remove 91-92 being a strong el nino on the heels of Pinatubo, this is pretty reasonable. I also have my doubts about the validity of 94-95 being a moderate event within a few years of the eruption, but fine. I won't be surprised if its not a very cold winter in the east, but I have a hard time utilizing a composite with all moderate el nino seasons in a weak year...one being within a fews years of Pinatubo. I think it would be blockier on the back end than this composite.