No, the call was made in November...I just updated in late December. The protracted thaw was always expected, but I increased the magnitude with the shorter lead time.
There is a seasonal progression section near the end....if you go to the thread, I have posted select excrepts. You seemed to get the gist when you posted last fall that "I hope you are wrong"...lol
Notice a trend? The H5 circle jerk isn't resulting in a ground orgy....so many different routes to boring.
The "looks great at H5" battle cry works at day 4, but not really at day 1-2.
I trust their ability to diagnose daily departures...I don't blame them for not forecasting 30 degree departures at 6 days lead time...same reason you don't forecast 30" of snow 6 days out. Actual likely closer to climo.
I can't wait until whatever isn't going to happen mid week, doesn't happen, so we can enjoy a nice weekend and focus on the improving look for the second half.
January is a "fast forward" month this year...has looked that way since fall.