40/70 Benchmark

Probably a strong STJ in conjunction with a negative NAO. I am not worried about the UKMET, as I don't buy into a season of apps runners. :LOL:

That bulls eye of that low height anomaly being over NE in February screams miller B to me, so not sure I buy the attendant distribution of QPF anomalies. All else being equal, I would expect that to recover in the NE in subsequent runs.

The trend to suppress moisture concerns me more..especially if el nino continues to intensify. If it remains weak, then I'll take that bet.

My main take away is that the H5 pattern is at least as good, if not better for the east. I'm not very concerned with days 30 through 120 2m temp and precip charts. That said, I don't doubt that the 2m temps on the earlier runs may have been too cold in the east.

Pretty good nosedive recently....probably because of the subsurface warm pool that has been translating eastward. I suspect that it may rebound a bit in a week or two..note the dip in R3.4 recently. My gut tells me a .9-1.1C ONI peak

Wow...that is extreme modoki..on par with 1968. Where do you get that daily data?

I'm not at all worried.

Sounds like Feb 2010. May have to watch March as the month for the mid atl....

I agree. I was just making the point that weak el nino events are not conducive to mid atl HECS....however don't forget, that the modoki value is more important than strength. 2009-2010 was nearly strong, and 1957-58 was strong, but they were modoki strong events. But the super events will always be pretty east based because of the inherently high amount of WWB that it takes to reach such exorbitantly potent levels.

Good point.......sept 2018 was near a .5 MEI..Sept 1986 was near 1.1. Big diff, so will need to see Oct near at least 1.0 to have a shot at that STJ, I think. How was March 1987?

This one point that I have been all over, yet I see many pros overlooking this...claiming that weak el nino events are great for the mid atl because they feature an active STJ. No, moderate el nino events are the bread and butter for the mid atl, though weak can still be very good. The weaker STJ inherent of weak el nino events tend to feature the miller B type as the predominate form of cyclogenesis, which usually focuses the wrath above the 40th parallel. See 2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, and so on.....even 1968, though it was mod ONI...its behavior was more congruent with its weak MEI classification. 2002, 1986 and 2009 were solid moderate intensity. I think this one could sneak in to mod territoy, but 1.1- to maybe 1.2 is the ceiling imo. TBH, if you are looking for a big fish in Baltimore or DC, then I'd rather a strong event, than a weak. Sure, it won't last, and the season may be a one trick poney, but mid atl HECS and even MECS are tough during a weak event. They need the potent STJ to deliver moisture. N stream won't cut it...especially south of Philly.

Finally, If one of the most prominent volcanic eruptions on the globe matters, the 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 el nino events are pretty useless as analogs, however you continue to cite them as viable, while discarding 2009 due to the location of the first observed positive sst anomaly during the evolution of that particular ENSO event.

Great post..thank you. I never would have made the connection between the cyclone and the recent WWB that has been fueling the growth of el nino.

I have never once heard of the origin point of el nino being of any importance. I really don't care how warm region 1.2 was in July, but that's just me. The fact of the matter is that region 1.2 has seen warm spurts in even the most modoki of el nino events.

That doesn't matter. ENSO is anomaly based. I'm going to side with NOAA on this...call me crazy.

This is why the thought of 1.5 ONI peak is absurd imo.....1.2C is the highest conceivable bounds imo.

It still trended back east as it matured.

The warmest sub surface anomalies are progressing east of region 3.4 now, so its not an unlimited ceiling. Most of the greatest anomalies are shifting into region 3. And not all of it will reach the surface necessarily. This is the el nino event's push toward maturity. 2009 featured a peak weekly anomaly of .7C in region 1.2, so I don't know where this notion that all of the warm anomalies are supposed to remain west came from. They progressed eastward as it matured even in the king of all modoki events.

October 2009 saw the same spike in 1.2. 07OCT2009 20.1-0.5 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.4 0.7 14OCT2009 21.0 0.2 25.6 0.7 27.5 0.8 29.6 1.0 21OCT2009 21.2 0.3 25.8 0.8 27.7 1.0 29.8 1.2 28OCT2009 21.6 0.5 26.1 1.2 28.1 1.4 30.0 1.3 I don't think its that important....the event is maturing. Not a big deal, but like I said, it will probably make moderate now....which is the big take away.

vs last month:

The subsurface warmth has definitely been warming regions 3.4 and 3 pretty rapidly, but as I have been saying....still not breaching region 1.2. Modoki all the way. 1.2 3 3.4 4 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 21OCT2009 21.2 0.3 25.8 0.8 27.7 1.0 29.8 1.2 25OCT2006 22.7 1.6 26.1 1.1 27.6 0.9 29.6 1.0 26OCT1994 21.7 0.7 25.6 0.6 27.6 1.0 29.5 0.9 Much closer to 2009 over 2006. Like I said before when folks were sweating the 1.2 warming...its unstable, and cooled right back off....poof. However the warm punch is good news for the mid atl because we are now likely to make moderate....I'd say 1.1-1.2C tri monthly.

If this el nino event peaks at 1.5C tri monthly, then I'll change my screen name to raindancewxII.

Feb looks more traditional NAO now, whereas last month it appeared east based. Its a better run, regardless of ENSO nuances. Great modoki pattern in the east. Thanks for posting that, raindance.

Canadian looks slightly colder and wetter for the northeast to me.

This a modoki, plain and simple. Sure, its not going to an extreme 2009 modoki, but I hear some trying to qualify it as "hybrid"...whatever. Its a modoki, just as most modest + ENSO events are. You can get into trouble trying to be to cute and qualifying every event that does not fall on an extreme end of the modoki value spectrum. This happened to me with the 2015 super el nino....it was not as extremely east based as 1997 and 1982, so I went the hybrid route, and got burned. The only aspect of that outlook that I salvaged was the mid atlantic blizzard. It doesn't need to be 2009 to be a modoki. This is not 2006. At the end of the day, the location of the warmest sst anomalies are aligned much more closely with 2009 than they are 1997.