40/70 Benchmark

Your outlooks are the best that I have ever seen, and the reward at the end of my research is reading your's. Thank you.

1963-1964 is one of my top analogs, as well...agreed. Great job....similar to my outlook, as usual....though I think I am a bit more hung ho on a HECS.

Weak peak.

I think that I have a pretty good idea where everyone is going with their outlooks without reading them, but understood. Its kind of like my reward after the work is done, too...sitting back and reflecting on the work of others. But like you said...I'm not a pro.

Not really imo......the subsurface usually translates eastward. My main take way is el nino is nearly mature. He has been saying that it was becoming less east based all fall, but none of the modoki tools reflect that. Eventually it will, but utility and relevance is waning.

Firstly, I don't think my track record reflects that. I obviously research plenty and soak up a lot of information from this forum, which I cite in the outlook...however I like to develop my own formulation and it works for me. But like I said.....I incorporate other thoughts, obviously...for instance, Will provided the impetus for the piece on the Scandinavian ridging as a precursor to poleward heat flux.

I mentioned it as such because it was coming out of the solar mimmim, so you are right, I should have been more thorough there. That being said, it doesn't change the outlook because everything else regarding that season's analog is valid. Thanks for the comment.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/11/winter-outlook-2018-2019-return-of.html

Enjoy. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/11/winter-outlook-2018-2019-return-of.html I have neglected family and friends since Friday night, so bare with me on the questions, but I will do the best that I can.

These are monthly anomalies, not ONI.....secondly, it really doesn't matter by January. I'm sure at some point, modoki and its attendant forcing will relinquish influence in the atmosphere, but the key is that it should be prevalent for the vast majority of boreal winter 2018-2019.

They can do whatever they want at Christmas. Doesn't matter to me

If you think about it....strongest of the el nino events are so potent because of frequent and intense westerly wind bursts, which will also serve to distribute the warmest anomalies into the eastern regions...

We aren't going to have it for the next 5 years..one more at most, and no.

I think this winter will be colder than the average moderate el nino, but not necessarily colder this season due to el nino being weak, as opposed to moderate, if that makes sense? Without having run statistical regression, I am fairly certain that DM temp is modulated more by modoki value, than strength...caveat being that stronger events rate lower on the modoki value. So while it appears strong events are all warm...its because they are usually east based. However the stronger events that were modoki events are still cold (57-58, 65-66, 2009-10). The aforementioned strong modoki events also usually have weaker MEI values, which is probably not a coincidence. Additionally, we have weak events that are more east based that were warm, like 2006-07. As far as precip, weak events are more n stream dominant...Miller B, which can still be very good in the mid atl, but 2010 is not walking through that door.

Nor do I foresee any imminent ascension to moderate status...the classic STJ dominant seasons like 1986, 2002 and 2009 were significantly stronger by this point. Even if this event were to mutate, and intensifies until next fall, we are running out of time to maintain relevance for this particular cold season.

I don't think it matters what region 1.2 does in January. Additionally, that modoki chart that griteater posted doesn't seem like this event has been becoming more east based.

Excellent. Can't wait to read it after I post mine next week.

Like most analogs, its not perfect, but has utility.

The other aspect of forecasting that I love is that not only is the atmosphere filled with chaos and often unpredictable, but each individual forecaster's style and methodology is unique and eclectic.....which given the inherent stochastic nature of the atmosphere, is splendidly app pro po.

Yea, I don't agree with a lot of his assertions regarding this season, but he is an asset to the forum and possess a wealth of knowledge. Very good poster.

Probably more PNA and less NAO than 1968....and more NAO and maybe a bit less PNA than 2014. I don't mean either analog is perfect, but I think the predominate form of cyclogensis maybe similar to those years.

1968, 2004 and 2014 are great MEI matches.

#hybrid The Sept/Oct MEI value actually took a dip from Aug/Sept. 2018 -.623 -.731 -.502 -.432 .465 .469 .076 .132 .509 .468 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html That is my main issue with 1957 (1.068), 1986 (.96), 2002 (.979) and 2009 (.883) as viable analogs for 2018 (.468). Its going to be more N stream than those seasons.

I'm not advocating for that particular analog's utility....but I see you speak in absolutes like this quite often....."if A means anything, then B will happen"....meteorology does not work like that. Not only are there a plethora of other factors that modulate weather on a seasonal basis, but there are anomalies, as well. Sometimes you have A+B...but the atmosphere just refuses to $hit out C. Sometimes atmospheric responses are purely stochastic in nature, and that is what makes it fun. It does not mean that a correlation/relationship doesn't exist, and you shouldn't expect C the next time. Solar implications are very worthy of consideration, regardless of whether or not winter 1957-1958 proves a viable analog for winter 2018-2019-

Thank you for these daily updates....greatly appreciated.