40/70 Benchmark

I think this next round of warming will bring us to peak.

+2"

Usually how it works-

2009-10 was a much stronger el nino....maybe more n steam this season. 1977-78 is a better ENSO and QBO analog. We will see, though...thanks for the well thought out presentation.

1977-'78 is my main analog....agreed. I think you are a little on the light side in Boston, though.....especially if el nino remains weak.

+6.5"

The weather is looking very much how I expect it to right now. And no, I think your temps are reasonable....its the snowfall/precip that I have an issue with. As far as hatred...what do you call ridiculing a release date? I don't think 11/14 is late when you are forecasting a for 30-120 day period. There are not many weak el nino seasons that were dry in this area, but at this point there is nothing left to say, so we will just see what verifies.

I think 2004 is fine.....he loves 2006. Just take any modest el nino that was mild in the northeast and and cool and rainy in New Mexico, and its fine. lol jk

That was moderate.

Maybe....but even those aren't usually a big issue in weak Nino.

He must be trolling at this point...at least I hope...anyway, looking forward to shoveling the 6" of low el nino solar off of my driveway tomorrow night.

Don't they use 1980-2010 period to derive ENSO anomaly?

I have read that modoki events may be more common place in a warmer world....why, not sure-

Oh, yea its possible......but for now, show me a weak modoki ENSO event and I'll show you an above average seasonal snowfall forecast for SNE. lol

I wish they could standardize these indexes better...its maddening to have conflicting data sets.

So what are you saying, its a coincidence that we are still getting severe winters during weak el nino events, and they are not manifesting themselves as they have historically ?

Roger, totally understand going closer to climo on snowfall....I took a gamble there. You can have a "perfect" composite in the seasonal mean to maximize snowfall, and are still likely to verify closer to climo than my numbers. However I would caution against a suppressed storm track in December because the PNA may lack a little, so we may have an element of latitudinal gradient with regard to snowfall distribution. Secondly, show me the weak el nino seasons with a suppressed storm track....you won't find many, save for 1979-80, which was a very marginal warm ENSO event. This is because the N stream is more prevalent than the STJ during these seasons, which breeds miller b cyclogenesis. This also often entails that southern New England endures the system's fury during that crucial time period during which the mid level centers are closing of, which maximizes frontogenesis and deformation potential. Sure, they can still miss southern New England, but its a lot more difficult when they develop in the n stream...its akin to pitching from a mound that is 60' away from home plate, and one that is 30'....its easier to throw a strike from that latter-

How in the world are 2006-07 and 1994-95 included as low solar? BTW, DT also included 1977-78 in the low solar data set. You seem to view all data through a wet/cool southwest, mild\dry northeast slanted prism. Below normal snowfall for Boston? This season? Normal for Boston is about 45".... We will revisit this thread in April, and you finally have to come to grips with the fact that you are wrong.

Snowfall is what people care about, unless you're an energy trader. I don't care about surface temp anomalies during the fall....I'm not sure how many ways you want me to communicate that. The departure from average in Albq New Mexico, Boston, MA or Tahiti during the month of October or November has painfully little relevance to me. Good luck-

Global is one thing, but it looked pretty status quo to me stateside..weak el nino and uber el nino behaved as I expected....but annual precip in the Philippines...maybe.

What I mean is that ENSO related forcing has manfiested itself into the atmosphere as it always has climotalogically speaking.....dependent upon intensity and modoki value, etc..

That doesn't matter to me. I am only forecasting a slightly below normal winter temperature wise. There are a plethora of different methodologies utilized by a number of talents folks, and they all differ from your's, so someone is going to be tragically wrong. We should start finding out which side it will be shortly.

Agree..especially across SNE and maybe NYC.