40/70 Benchmark

I don't think it will matter a ton....we both composed our outlooks under the pretense that there would not in fact be a SSW...do the math lol It may not be quite as cold if it doesn't, but I don't think its a huge deal....but Tom can answer for himself.

Meeting of the minds to discuss the monster that will be en route.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/changes-afoot-for-christmas-severe.html

Hope Zach's Pop is enjoying..

No, it isn't. Daily peaks do not constitute ONI. Its weak and will be peak weak ONI....MEI is like .698. Much more on par with weak events like '68-'69 than moderate events such as '02-'03.

Quick update...no changes. Ironically enough, it is the southeastern states of Virginia and North Carolina that are receiving the major snows since the PNA did join forces with high latitude blocking, but this is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. The blocking did indeed materialize, and is on borrowed time, as advertised. Everything seems to be going as planned..too bad the early Dec event didn't work out for most of the east coast. Bad luck. This may sound silly, but I'm ambivalent about December struggling....if you look back at all of our most prolific weak modoki seasons, they all struggled in December snowfall wise, with the exception of one....December 1977. December 2014, 2004, and 1968 were all fairly meager snowfall months. December 1976 was a prolific month during a weak el nino, but it was not a modoki. It is not difficult to envision how this month could have easily verified similarly to 12/77 had a moose fart drifted at a slightly different angle, and the northern stream had synced with that s SW, as opposed to suppressing it. The moral of the story is that December 2018 was largely anticipated to be frustrating from a snowfall standpoint, or at least it should have. My hunch is that something will work out from about most of sne points northward in latitude as the month begins to draw to a close. This will provide the impetus for some unrealistic expectations for the first half of January, which will engender some feelings of unwarranted disappointment, only to be reinvigorated by the real deal as the month ages and the late January/February bonanza ensues. Just my two cents- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/deceptive-early-season-respite-november.html

The slight la nina undertone (RNA) was anticipated for December, and will not last through January.

It has been clear since early last autumn that this el nino would be weak. I never had a a clue where the strong ONI talk was coming from.

Quick update...no changes. Ironically enough, it is the southeastern states of Virginia and North Carolina that are receiving the major snows since the PNA did join forces with high latitude blocking, but this is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. The blocking did indeed materialize, and is on borrowed time, as advertised. Everything seems to be going as planned..too bad the early Dec event didn't work out for most of the east coast. Bad luck. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/deceptive-early-season-respite-november.html

Raindance, I have never contended that your analog set has zero value because it does....just because you, I or anyone has a given season on their analog set doesn't have to mean that they think the coming season will be an exact replica. I def. find value in 2006, for instance, but also happen to think that this season will be remembered as having played out much differently in the end. I won't derail the thread, as I have outlined my rationale in the outlook.

I love to debate...but I have given up the goat on that one. I'll be laying in the weeds to post bump over the next few months.

Cold day...low of 15.1, high of 31.8. Couldn't crack freezing. 28.4/16.7 currently.

Really...just gave up. Had the Ambient station online in a few moments.

Amen...nightmare. 11 years of my Davis VP 2 in Wilmington and never had it online.

So far so good RE the accuracy without an aspirating fan, too....I have another sensor on the north side of the garage in the shade, and my WS 2000 consistently a degree below it, so I don't I do think the placement of the sensor on the bottom of the suite is eluding solar irradiance. The sensor array is also white, too, which should limit that.

I never did...Davis is a nightmare for web upload...lethally accurate, but the most user unfriendly device that one could fathom. The console is straight out of the early 80's, too.

Yea, something like that. I recommend the Ambient WS 2000...great product and trechnical support.

Still considerable CAA ongoing...temp down to 31.6/11.7. Just barely crept above freezing to 33.4 for a bit around 8am.

I wasn't crazy about the idea of a SSW this season, but I don't think it will matter much in the end.

Looks modoki to me.

Raindancewx, I think your ideas for Dec are pretty reasonable. A mild 2-3 week period is pretty well supported.

Weak el nino is our snowiest ENSO state.

Tom, at this point, there is nothing left to do but some celebratory post bumping in a few months. Your grasp on the wide array of specific atmospheric processess across the globe is superior to mine, but we are always on the same page in our aggregate expectations.

We keep hearing about how the modoki has collapsed, and basin wide this, and east-based that, but nothing of statistical relevance seems to corroborate it. This el nino does, and has for months rated a moderately strong modoki value. Sure, region 1.2 spikes every now and then just as every season has at some point (some WWB are going to make it to the eastern zones), including 2009-2010, but this is why a tri monthly period is utilized as a proxy for ENSO intensity and structure. I'm sure modoki will wane at some point, but no one should care by the time that it does. There is no ammunition that has yet to be spent in defense of this position, so we just need to wait for verification to deal the final blow.

I agree with him that we are going to be a mild pattern for a couple of weeks...that isn't really debatable, I don't think...what is debatable is whether the month of December will end up mild in the aggregate...I'll bet it breaks pretty close to climo.