40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Low right over my driveway is never good news.
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00z Euro didn't look that impressive....even the Berkshires were only like 10"...
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I wish we had last weekend's air mass, this weekend.
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GFS is 4.2" for Boston, and about 10" for me...Berks 2'+
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Yes....low elevations to the E of the ORH hills did fine. Sure, it was 16-18" instead of 36-42", but...
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"There's the demon"....
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I would rather play the odds with the CF, than be in an interior valley with on an easterly fetch aloft with a marginal air mass.
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This is why the exact position of the high will be so important....if I am west of the cf, and winds are NNE, there will be power issues from a great deal of paste. East of the CF, Winds are ENE and its rain. Maybe a sharp gradient....
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I would not want to be in an interior valley....I'd rather take my chances near the ocean in ne MA.
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Low elevation can make out fine, as long as you don't have elevations to your north or east....and have sufficient latitude.
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I wasn't mentioning them as two, discrete issues...they are related...ie more moderate SSTs is more conducive to skating by with a tepid air mass.
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I have been mentioning that as a potential ceiling for a couple of days....
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Climo/SSTS are also more favorable than they were on 12/3, which negates some of the limitations with regard to the airmass.
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I didn't see that on the GEFS mean...GEM ens mean, I did...nothing drastic, but north...
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GEM ensemble trended a hair north over OH...not what we wanted to see. Confluence backed off a bit this run.
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GEFS look identical to 18z.
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I'd prefer a combination....
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Nor am I going to quibble over intensity nuances on a deterministic solution. Same idea RE general storm evolution.
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Riding the line, regardless. Better than having the line 30mi north of me.
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Looks good north of Boston. Sorry it blows for YBY
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They are too far south. Non starter.
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False.
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It was a little east...out on Long island.
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Dec 92 snowed 18" in the Wilmington swamps. Latitude matters, too.
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Yea, but just discussing the run. I'll be more concerns if ens follow.
