40/70 Benchmark

2" of QPF from KCON points south. I think that's over done.

Siggy ice still from MA border points south into CT/RI/se MA...but north of there, we snow.

Not to be hypocritical....we are still 4 days out, so another amp shift would not surprise me, and QPF still may be overdone....but yea, super moped was never happening.

I love crow when its snow coated.

Euro waaay east....weeeeee We need an "I told you so" emoji.

SELL

Not a suprise.

Delusional.

Nope.

I have two woodstoves.

7" of snow, then we ping and glaze...sweet.

That's pretty reasonable.

I think the fact that it begins as snow/sleet really mitigates that threat...even in that narrow zone. We shall see.

Said the same thing. Yea.

Absolutely agreed. Major ice will be thin...lots of snow/sleet.

EPS has always been way to go...several inches for me, then ice.

I'm locked below 32 imo.

Yea. Trend isn't done...AWT.

Yea, never liked the phased monster, either...we aren't blocky yet.

Shocking.

If I had to make a forecast for my BY right now, it would be for 5-10" of snow/sleet, followed by a few hours of sleet/freezing rain. Done. I think the ice impact will be limited by antecedent snow/sleet mantle that will be deposited.

Believe me, no one here is more frustrated than I am, but you can't let that cloud your perception of the future. Obviously, the sensible result as it pertains to snowfall has been more unsavory than we all had anticipated, but that has very little predictive value for the future. The pattern still looks about as good as it can moving forward, and should it not work out, I'll still call for the same thing heading into a season with an identical hemispheric canvass in the future. All you can do is interpret the pattern and play the odds- I think that there is plenty of fun to be had, though.

What does the medium range have to do with two weeks out?

I doubt they close off, though.

Oh..mid levels? Absolutely. I thought you meant surface low. I don't think it will close, though.