40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I like that....maybe your most valuable contribution all fall.
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Where is Kevin and his sleigh full of weenies when you need them...
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Yea, the NAO is only helpful if you have cold air already in place...in this case, rather run this risk of a hugger, than have a good track with no cold.
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I only used it as a secondary analog because of the ONI and MEI criteria that I employed, but that season is one of the better sensible weather analogs for how I see this winter playing out. Even the blocking just east of Greenland was a very prevalent feature in my composite.
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Do you mean due to the stagnation of a neg NAO...IE, not allowing the old Pac puke to bleed out?
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Right....I think climo and the cold reservoir improve throughout the month.
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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SO MEI value held at -1.2 https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
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I think "the first half of December shows signs of improvement" is more accurate.
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The Whale released him after he tried to rope it into coauthoring the Dawn Awakening...
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Taking cover under his novel
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Set a record for safety.
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I don't think that you will be too far off this season. I think I went with + .25 to .55 range...basically neutral-positive. I think most would take a near neutral NAO and run, this year. lol
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Most bombed the arctic last season....I think all of the smoke from the fires really augmented the PV.
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Yea....there isn't much cold for the PNA to advect.
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He just means that Canada is filled with Pacific air.
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Hadley Boooommmmmb....BOOM!!
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I noticed the same thing. Difference of a day or two is noise. The point is that the second week of December is much more favorable.
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There needs to be a cold source......the high is the vehicle for the cold. Worcester hills could probably pull it off, sure.
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I don't think I will because its so tied into my emotional well being, as well. I have seen some dark days and exercise is an enormous outlet for me. Wife has learned to afford me the time to exercise. lol
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Yea, obviously there are more acute causes of chronic discomfort. Sucks. I don't know how I have avoided more chronic issues after that wreck I was in 1/2010....absolute miracle, but I'm sure my rigorous fitness regimen plays a role. My left lat will never feel exactly the same, as they extracted it to graph the tube into my aorta. But I can not complain.
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Most prevalent cause of of chronic lower back pain is a weak core. Its easier to skate by in your 20s and early 30s, but it will usually come to a head in your later 30s.
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There isn't any cold air for the PNA to tap, though....that may work during the heart of winter, but it won't in early December....at least not for I95.
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I agree with the fact that an active storm track bodes better than nothing at all.
