40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Pick your indicator. What I like to do is establish a conceptualization of how the atmosphere will evolve in the preseason based upon seasonal factors, such as the QBO, and keep a vigil on the stratosphere, as well as guidance for confirmation as the winter progresses. I think if you look to guidance to develop your ideology, then you have it backwards and can end up chasing your tail, so to speak.
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Should turn out okay.
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We'll see...only halfway home. I was pretty close at this time last year, too...lol. Difference is the second half need not be extreme to verify this season.
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The QBO rate of descent has always favored later in the season for a less hostile polar domain.
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He does...we just break balls. He is as sharp as anyone.
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Its funny you think sarcasm is a foreign language.
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I enjoy extraordinary weather outside MBY, like a major hurricane, but 1' or 2 of snow needs to fall IMBY for me to GAFF. I don't care about snow in remote mountain villages.
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Yea, false statement...not sure what Bob meant.
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Exactly. I still like the latter portion of the season.
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I was hopeful for some decent snow, but never took the high upaide bait. I posted Sunday that it looked like mainly rain. Next...
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I think there is a difference between calling for 2009-2010-verifying 2011-2012, and calling for big NAO/AO blocking, but getting big EPO blocking instead. I don't think the latter is a total whiff, as there is something to be said for accurately predicting a seasonal proclivity for energy transfer into the polar domain. I just think its important to note that in hindsight, and not Judah everyone.
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Pivotalwx.com?
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Tough pill for me to swallow blowing 2015-16, aside from getting the blizzard right...missed a hanging curve.
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You pretty much echoed what I just said. We aren't there yet, but I see progress...both personally, and professionally, where it actually matters. Totally agree on right for the wrong reason, but I also feel like missing with respect to one index is different than missing on everything..I think we just need to acknowledge the error.
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TBH, pinning down an individual storm track to within 50 mi at day 7 is not much easier than capturing the overall tenor of a season at few months of lead time. I mean, what you said sounds viscerally logical, until you actually think about it...
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I wouldn't, either....I said "we aren't there yet"...but I also think its possible and we are making progress.
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"LR is voodoo" is a copout. Its predictable, but we just aren't there yet. I think I, along with some others have held their own TBH.
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Well, I agree that basing your entire outlook on it, like Judah, is foolish. No argument. But it certainly helps more often than not...there are exceptions, like last year.
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Is he driving to Nanavut to chase this?
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Tonight's First Call cancel.
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I hope it tracks through Ottawa, at this point...disengaged.
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Strat was awful in 2015, but I'm not sure what your point is. I think most understand that you can get by without it, but its insurance against what we are now enduring. The big PNA failed this month..is the PNA voodoo?
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At least I won't spend two hours blogging tonight.
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Maybe next year I am awful, like last year...bottom line is that the failures inform the successes. The moment you think that you have it figured out is the moment that you are back to the drawing board.
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I wouldn't be suprised...
