40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yea..18-24". Had me with like 12-18". I'm not sure how they couldn't have anticipated this QPF chop if a joe-$hit-the-rag man like me and you could. I mentioned a couple of days ago that this reminded me of the early Feb 2011, and 2009 events.....SWFE that people humped mid range guidance and expected 18-24".
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Still like my first call right about now.
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I'm not saying its going to happen, but I think your correction vector here is a snowy one. I don't see a lot of margin for error on the less impactful end of the spectrum (unless anyone was expecting 18" lol)...sure, it may bump north a bit, but it won't be major...my largest uncertainty stems from a more proficient interaction with the northern stream at the last moment.. Don't sleep on a blizzard just yet, but plan on most amounts being generally under 1'.
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This makes sense....9-12" of snow, then maybe some pellets. But the 18" of snow BEFORE .5" of ice was absolutely silly.
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Their first map was patently dumb....not sure what was up with that.
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He won't be wrong.
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Several inches difference? No, common sense. Absent a more proficient phase, 2" of QPF is pretty unlikely from WAA. But if you had bothered to actually think this through rather than instantaneously vomiting back a petulant reply in response do being verbally undressed, then you would have learned that.
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1C? Absolutely. I sold the UK yesterday.
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It didn't correct towards the GFS...you are delusional. It was noise.
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I don't get why a few are tweaking. The slight warm trend is noise, and the QPF trim was expected, and is now more in line with yesterdays' expectations....barring any more proficient late phasing, which this run did not do.
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The biggest difference is that its more realistic regarding QPF....no brainer. It is also about 1c warmer in the mid levels across SNE.
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Close the shades on 9 or 10", ending as ice? 24 hours ago, you were closing the shades on 5". Try blinds.
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Still time for that, but obviously not preferred.
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The delayed reaction is how it will go done. Its not phasing early. That idea, which I always dispelled when by the boards a couple of days ago.
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I think that was obviously wrong.
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I am telling you....don't be surprised if the 12z EURO is a nuke.
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Yea, that cf set up right on 128.
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I was just thinking that I am 50/50 that the 12z euro goes ape$hit. We'll see.
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Probably from a circle jerk deep in the bowel's of James' basement.
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Yea, I haven't looked closely enough to see how close it is RE mid level centers, but I will obviously before final call. The H5 low def. trended south of us yesterday. Obviously odds are against it, which is why I didn't go 1-2' in the first call.
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I buy that in narrow swath through that general area.
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I "only" went 8-14" north of the pike in my first call blog post, but explicitly hedged at much greater potential when detailing this trend.
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I kind of feel as though the EURO maybe trying to pull of a late-bloom blizzard.
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The BOX products don't make a ton of sense to me. I'm not sure how you forecast up to .5" of ice accretion up to KLWM, yet also forecast up to 18" of snow. The answer is that you wouldn't. That will be just about all sleet and snow. I'd displace that ice a swath a good 50 mi to the south. I also think that the map is a bit high on snowfall, too.
