40/70 Benchmark

I'm rebounding nicely from my second seasonal bust last year, but I do wish that I had went with a higher temp departure for January....I need some frigid air during the second half of the month. Extreme monthly temp departures are always a crap shoot, though...I feel its more important to just get the positive vs minus correct, as well as the narrative of the overall seasonal progression. I mean....we weenie tag people for posting clown maps depicting extreme anomalies at day 13, nevermind week 13.

Perfectly stated. The pattern modeled is better than last season, and even last year wasn't as bad as the seasonal snowfall spreadsheet implies. Early December 2018 we all whiffed...early December 2019 MOST of us hit....that is the difference in seasonal snowfall to date.

No, I just mean with respect to the polar domain over the past few weeks. I'm not saying that last year is an analog moving forward.

Comparisons to last year do have some validity, but I think that the fact that we have a QBO phase change to negative and do not have a SSW providing deconstructive interference is a game changer. I could see this upcoming PNA/EPO tandem pass the baton on to the NAO and keep things going for an extended period of fun through Feb and into March.

Completely agree.

I don't perceive it as being as wild as you do....we'll see.

Agree. This is another non-starter.

C+ effort...not awful, nor great. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/verification-of-overnight-snows.html

All...

I knew the ice was a sell for SNE.. saw that coming lol

Not a met, but I still like latter January and especially February. I think it becomes progressively lesa hostile for blocking from mid month into March. In the Pac side, I'm more confident of improvements in the EPO region, than I am with respect to the PNA.

Got flurries here...maybe closer to town can score an inch or so...

Could be some light accumulation even up my way, contrary to many forecasts... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/light-snows-overnight-followed-by.html

I am all for it if we don't have an appreciable pack to preserve, it isn't around the holidays and it isn't going to snow. Lets do 70-

I agree. Will figure out some way to leave the index explanation out of the body next season.

At least Belicheck will have a jackpot on ACK to assuage the pain from the early post season exit.

I think what I can do is maybe group all of the "repetitive explanation of indecies" into one blog post, and hyperlink back to it upon mention of said indecies in the outlook. I'll try that next season because I think that will make it more readable.. Thanks for the feedback....really appreciate it.

This is good idea, but I felt as though lessons from last season informed this year...as for the bolded, I do that for my own benefit each season. I forget seasonal elements during the medium range forecasting year and offseason.

I'm going to do a better job of prefacing the entire document with instructions to scroll to the "Anticipated Seasonal Evolution" section at the end to just get to the forecast. I feel as though the research paper portion is nice refresher for me each season on the core elements of seasonal forecasting.

No. I posted an update narrative from latter December, along with a couple of excerpts from the original November release.

@CoastalWx This was written in November..I know it gets confusing with so much content. "The seemingly favorable antecedent conditions for the disruption of the PV in conjunction with both the observed north atlantic tripole over the summer, as well as the anticipated favorable Hadley cell configuration in association with the ongoing modestly warm ENSO event all favor increased blocking. However they are interpreted as being suggestive of perhaps one month during the coming period featuring one or more major and sustained blocking episodes. This will likely occur later in the season because conditions should be hostile for the development of sustained blocking during the first half of boreal winter 2019-2020 due to the considerable initial intensity of the PV, in conjunction with the delayed descent of the easterly QBO phase. This does not preclude intervals of negative NAO and bouts of wintery early season weather, owed to the elongation of the PV that is conducive to periodic and transient cold intrusions, as well expected volatility of the NAO modality. It is also important to note that while conditions appear favorable for at least minor disruptions to the PV, its recovery from any such occurrence is expected to be both proficient and timely. This is due in part to climatology favoring only minor assaults early in the season, as well as the anticipated resiliency of a potent PV denoted by +AO conditions presently observed within the polar stratosphere. Such a recovery period after any potential assault would likely lead to a protracted mid winter thawing period as the vortex reconsolidates and possibly becomes more circular in nature.

No ill feelings here. Never expected anything and it will be all a dream soon, anyway.

Totally in jest....no problem at all.

What in the Hadley Cell is your problem?

No, the call was made in November...I just updated in late December. The protracted thaw was always expected, but I increased the magnitude with the shorter lead time.