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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those were great back-to-back events in the lead up to xmas.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure 08 beat it out where you are...the graidient was further south by like 50mi, likely due to a weaker cool ENSO regime.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    1970-1971 was very much like 2007-2008. That was back before I did the outlooks, but I remember Will and I were discussing in the threads how that looked like a great analog during the fall and it was.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 2007 was one of my better months of December....right up there with 1995, 2008 and 1970.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, I would take that map and run....I would do naked cartwheels across Antartica for normal snowfall at this point.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can buy the US getting another shitty winter, but I have never been on board with Canada being a furnace again...which menas the north will have a chance for some fun periods.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't mind that during the winter assuming warmth is not prohibitive (theoretical, not a forecast) because I would rather have volatility with large storms, then a consistent cold with nickle and dime events.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thankfully in terms of getting the forecast right, but unfortunate from the perspective of a NE winter ethusiast. What is said today is that forecasters on social media do everything in their power to mainiupulate the truth and avoid accountability for forecasting errors....but its the ultimate irony because what people really respect is transparency and a willingness to use errors as a vehicle for the self-reflection and critical thinking that drives growth and improvement. Karma is a b*tch.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is anyone else not suprised by the fact that @raindancewxwent dormant and decatived his X account the moment he thought the east may finally have a decent winter?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was never crazy about that analog, but I can see giving it a shout out due to how well it matches the summer pattern.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    ENSO has always been a strong point for me. My weaker point had been the polar domain, but I have improved a lot with respect to that in recent years. My current stuggles are adjusting to climate change and being too reliant on analogs that are archaic, relatively speaking. I will try to improve on that this season.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nor on the idea that La Nina would fail to develop...still think a healthy weak to bordering on moderate event per ONI is in the offing. This post is from July. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/enso-proving-deceptive-once-again.html
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree....shame because he was a great met when his intentions were more pure.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    La Nina being central based in and of itself is not a big deal...especially since it isn't strong
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...exactly. It can either amplify/perpetuate or attenuate the pattern in place, but it does drive the hemispheric pattern in a vacuum. This is why there often a pretty exagerrated disconnect between the PDO and the PNA, the latter of which has a much more tangible impact on the nation's sensible weather.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd give my left nut for a redux of that season.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    98-99 is definitely the worst option for SNE.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would give my left nut for a redux of 2007-2008.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    34.0
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, tall task...agree.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was because of the pattern, not the time of year. Rest assured, if didn't have a trough ampligying down to the baja out west, then you would have experienced a cold March. It was enough for a good portion of New England, but not for most.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Both of those seasons are members of my polar analog composite that I made back in August. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html Eastern Mass Weather Preliminary Polar Analogs for Winter 2024-2025 1970 1975 1999 2007 2016 2022
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Guy I coordinate with expects about another 40 worth of ACE.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    They were pretty bad with Helene...as was all guidnace.
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