40/70 Benchmark

Quote me, too.....main threat is rain for sne.

Congrats, me...

NHC calls for shear for the rest of its life...looks like it abates south of Carolinas to me....unless the shear east of FL follows it north...

Yea, we are on the same page.

Yes, I think that is the Ukie...best solution for us. Probably strong TS here...we'll see. Beats tracking mosquitoes.

No issue with that. Looks about right.

The image clearly shows the system inland well south of us, so how SNE sees much wind is beyond me.

First Call in relation to Hurricane Isaias. Final will be tomorrow night. Looks to brush the Florida coast between West Palm Beach and Melbourne as a minimal hurricane early Sunday, before veering north and perhaps even weakening to a tropical storm. However it should enter a period of intensification on Monday and perhaps strike near Cape Fear, NC approaching the threshold of a category 1/2 hurricane. Threat here in New England is primarily heavy rains, which is not really much of a threat since the region is enduring modest drought conditions. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/hurricane-isaias-threatens-fl-and.html

Not happening until maybe just before LF in the Carolinas if just brushes FL.

It's been steady state all day long....fluctuations. The environment is neutral now, and will degrade tomorrow, then become reasonably favorable on approach to Carolinas.

95-100mph at dawn. If that happens, I'll leave my wife and marry James on the cape.

Wrong.

GFS is Bob...key is to not have it bleed east in future guidance.

I'll bet on guidance biasing left at this latitude.

I don't expect much more than some heavy rain on the way OTS up here....an Edouard.

Yea, I could def. see cat 1. But not discounting anything stronger...just low confidence on that. I wouldn't go more than cat 1 attm.

I don't think the stakes are that high, as it will be lucky to achieve hurricane status.

Why not Carolinas?

I think Carolinas have best shot. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/07/tropical-troubles-possible-for-east.html

Its been a great quarter century for the zealots.

The Jan 1978 event is one that nailed Gloucester with OES.

One part of my call that I was happy with was ENSO....I nailed that marginal modoki when most laughed at prospect of el nino...of course, the pattern reload took too long, which sunk the forecast, but that may be connected to the muted atmospheric coupling.

Hope my forecast is better than the last two lol

There is also a recency bias given that the last two vaunted meager warm ENSO events were let downs for the northeast....you need not look back very far to find meek warm ENSO events that were accompanied by mutant snows in the NE.

Well, if you think about it....the argument is that global warming is is having a muting effect on warm ENSO events....my train of thought is why would that not serve to augment cool ENSO events. I get that shorter term stochastic fluctuations are more relevent with regard to storm potential, but that doesn't negate the value of monthly aggregate calculations ...especially at longer, seasonal lead times. And while volatility of the polar fields is paramount with respect to optimizing winter storm potential, I would rather have a static negative node and positive.