40/70 Benchmark

Much like this winter, so far. Wow.

Yea, that is sufficient resistance to a track over Albany, but I don't see how this tracks east of the CC cancel given a proficient phase....unless the whole axis shifts east, which is this range is unlikely. I'll tell you.....someone on the western edge is going to get a hellacious deformation with the +pp abutting explosive PV phasing.

I just meant the more phased idea. Not that we get 2' in eastern MA.

It looks to me like the EURO is more proficiently phasing the PV in with that southern SW off of the east coast, however the issue I see is that there is still nothing to prevent a more tucked track should it succeed in doing so. Maybe a decent front end job-taint-arctic blast? This current stretch would be Feb '15 if we had blocking.

I'd settle for 100 miles.

Guessing that isn't final solution...not that it has to trend favorably..

I'll bet this works out.

No, you are thinking of Dec 2003 and PD II....I got 25" that storm.....I only had 18" going into the final 90 minutes, but the closing death band dropped a quick 7". It was a bonafide KU here....just not upper tier.

Oh, he said that is what the OP Euro indicated? I thought he meant the EPS. Okay.

This next event probably won't stay snow for most, but we have a shot at widespread warning imo.

It was a great storm, but nothing set it apart from other KUs...Last March and April 1997 were better for snowfall by several inches, and Feb 2013 was better for wind and snowfall by a bit. I'd rank it ahead of Jan 2011, but probably even behind Dec 1992.

I agree relative to my hood at the time in Wilmington.....wasn't particularly impressed. Cape and north shore....different story.

I doubt it tracks over Hunchie's head. Op model at day 5?

I just checked out the PV at H5 and saw a track of slp over sne.

I'll defer to you on that. I didn't look that closely.

Euro is a better SWFE since the PV doesn't dig as much......I think this is more plausible.

Let me upload the sounding of me caring.

@Isotherm Tom, are you concerned about your DJF seasonal call for a mean neg NAO?

Whooopeeeeeeee!!!!!

Its just bc nothing is working out...naturally folks will focus on what has gone wrong...I get it, though.

Perhaps a weather forum isn't the highest percentage play to avoid it.

I still think it will work out, but I'm just done with this period....period.

It can work, but has to break just right....like it did in 2015. This year, the ridge isn't as amplified and its placed more to the west....so without the NAO, we need the right timing, and we haven't gotten it.

I'm so sick of blogging about terds, and waisting bandwidth trying to polish them. "Could be 3-4" of slop if everything breaks right"....ugh.

His point is lost on both of you. Its not necessary to get nailed, as 2015 illustrated, but it provides more margin for error in the event that the balance of the hemispheric regime is less than stellar....as this season illustrates. We wouldn't have to worry about the timing of all of these SW's, which has been awful. The mother load of arctic air would not have been allowed evacuate in advance of the ongoing soaker. In 2015, the ridge out west was positioned perfectly for several weeks, this season it is less stout and displaced west....so we cut. This season would be perceived entirely different right now had we an NAO...today is a perfect example. This season is a good counter to the "we don't need an NAO" rebellion.