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@raindancewx Could you please link me to your outlook, as I was having trouble finding it. Thanks.

I've been good with temps, bad with snowfall. H5 is too early..only a half season.

I think the AO/NAO is quite a bit different, too....NAO not helpful, but not awful.

Too early to say, but if nothing changes, then he will have had the better outlook...I'll leave it at that.

The AO was exotically positive.....going to have to disagree.

Energy sector cares about temps, and and 1994 and 2006 were atrocious analogs in that regard.

I've actually been too warm in January....dead-nuts on for December.

Ok...want another mic drop? Post a temp anomaly chart for 2007 and 2018...is temperature sensible enough for you?

I will. I know rain dance.......he'd pick out some arbitrary three week period that was identical all three seasons (1995, 2007, 2018) in Albequerque, and says that proves his point.

These posts are probably better suited for this thread.

If things don't turn around...this will be a good "fraud" test for those like Raindancewx, who championed analogs like 2006 and 1994. I'll be waiting eagerly for them to claim absolute victory due snowfall numbers being accurate for the wrong reason. I know people like Scott remember that Cohen did that in 2015, even though we did it without the NAO. I slammed that point home in the most mortem...even though I ostensibly nailed the season, I missed on the NAO/AO...thus the call wasn't an "A" in my book. I think I gave myself like a "B". Not there yet, tough, and I still don't think we will get to that point.

Having the SSW focus on the other side of the globe didn't doom us...it left us less margin for error because it created a more hostile envt. for NAO assist IMO....but I never thought we roll double zero's this many times consecutively when left to the mercy of synoptic timing and nuances. Still time.

We don't have a ton of margin for error because the NAO blocking has not been there, but its not been a 2007 or 1995, either. Given the latter, usually we would have some SWs flex at just the right time to avail themselves of the antecedent airmass, but it just hasn't happen. Up until 1/20, I think it was a combo of bad luck and the SSW screwing with things that left less snowfall than my outlook would imply, however from this week forward, my efforts are more culpable because there still isn't an NAO developing yet. That is a miss on my part....the only thing that was beforehand is the SSW....which I think manifested as a net detriment to us. We didn't need it....I think it focused blocking on the other side of the globe, and actually provided some deconstructive interference to Atlantic blocking....but that is admittedly speculation of my part. However I also said that it didn't matter which side of the globe it focuses on, as it would just mean less bitter cold, and that looks to have been wrong.

There is no ratter indicator. You gave me the 12/1 to 1/26 H5 layout and told me to extrapolate over a whole season, I would have forecast normal to slightly above normal snows. However the timing has been awful with every system save for mid Novie.....the cold has ben there, but without the NAO, we need timing to break right, and it just has not.

Not at all. But if we are still searching for the mo-jo after the first week of February, its safe to say my snowfall totals are going down in flames. Certainly in peril right now, but I still see an avenue to verification.

Yes. 2015 it was perfectly placed, this season its too far west.

Not sure I agree if the system is rapidly developing as it moves northeast, which is in question.

100% agree.

I think I'm a little better off than you are. Gradient looks like it would be sw to ne to me...pretty standard.

Figured....I'd take the 3" on the front end. Lol

I think 3-6" is def. doable....but 4-8" is possible.

The pattern has changed, regardless of whether or not it snows in Plymouth. However the NAO is not part of said changes, unfortunately. Try to wrap your mind around that as the PV queefs and sends icy ripples through your puddles.

Why do you want the baroclonic zone to not recover, to avoid a phased hugger mid week?

Weeklies have been better than decent...its just a matter of whether they are right.

This is a lose, lose situation if you want a big sne event.....a more proficient phase is going to track further west bc there is nothing to stop it from doing so, and a favorable track will result in a meager, disjointed mess.