40/70 Benchmark

Here is my insanely preliminary weak la nina composite....only sorted by ENSO, at this point.

My next blog will start getting more into the particulars of the weak la nina composite years. I am very confident we weak nina....highly doubt cold-neutral.

I never realized how insanely close it was for me in Wilmington...I wasn't as scrupulous back then as I am today. It started snowing heavy in MBY, and I was like.....okay, we good. Little did I know that it was relatively inconsequential snow in like Lawrence/N Andover...

Thank god that I wasn't at my current spot near the NH border in Methuen, then....I would have swan dived into the Merrimack. I remember laughing at the 5" of pixie dust that was reported in Methuen, while staring out the window in Wilmington at my 18-20" of fluff.

How was the run this morning?

I ruled out a cat 5...which it didn't achieve. I didn't forecast a cat 1...I forecasted a 3.

Forecast for Laura was nearly flawless in terms of track from a pretty extended lead (over 80 hours), while the intensity forecast left something to be desired. However, the error was pretty acceptable given the 30 hour lead time from issuance to landfall. Final Grade: B https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/devastating-hurricane-laura-verification.html

66.2 on the station at home...love it.

There is always a change with a weak ENSO....never a non-starter. That said, it could still be a terd...as we have seen for two years running.

A twitter met who likes to be a contrarian, but doesn't like to be wrong....dangerous life.

He's been very, very fresh of late...

What else are you supposed to do, aside from measure the winds with planes and sample the pressure...lol Maybe he should grab an anemometer and jump on an oil rig and wait..

The pressure is pretty commensurate with the listed max sustained winds...not sure why anyone would think that...

He's falling into that trap of reaching to perpetuate a bad forecast's lifespan. Just let it go..it only compounds matters and makes it worse.

I think it may be within several hours of peaking, but yea...no idea what Cranky smoked. I'd be cranky, too if I were staring down the barrel of that bust.

I think this run has it nailed.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/hurricane-laura-targets-tx-la-final-call.html Orange, LA 1am Thursday 110-125mph

Oh, I don't doubt it...that was my first call.

Yea, SW LA is another boring landfall spot...as is the border area where Rita hit. The western Gulf coast has lots of population holes, unlike the eastern side.

Well, that settles it.

Marco was never expected to go "right"....it always looked to kiss hurricane strength and no more. On Friday, I expected a similar fate for Laura, maybe a bit better, but over the weekend it appeared likely that shear would abate. We need to see if that goes according to plan. Knowing this year, it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't, or it did and we still peaked at 105mph.

I can't stand Texas landfalls....most are pretty boring. Especially if hit trends down to the big bend area where Hannah went. Its one giant swamp.

You are exactly right, though....that is the reason you don't go James and forecast a cat 4 or 5 at extended leads...sooooo much has to go "right" ...in a season where not much has, nonetheless...

It still has a lot of housekeeping before its off to the races...cat 4 is def. not a forgone conclusion.

I was pretty conservative on first call because I'm not in the habit or forecasting 160mph gusts and 3 feet of snow at 4 days lead time, but if you read the blog, I implied exactly what you are referring to. You are spot on in that the timing of Laura's evolution is going to leave little time for modulation via internal processes (ERC), which may be the coast's only hope under these circumstances. Texas would likely have been better off had Laura blown up near the leewards and 1) Began ERC 2) Been a mature, coupled system upon traversing of Hispaniola and Cuba, which would have rendered it more prone to disruption.