40/70 Benchmark

So far, I give you credit. Good job. I'll review it more closely later.

I roll my eyes at the ratio talk every storm. You usually need to be under a deform band for more than 12:1.

I'll be thrilled with 2" here.

I agree. I said that yesterday, but it fell on deaf ears. All this talk about how west was great, and I feel like people overlooked that. Best dynamics are ne.

Agree....right now.

Plow operator asked me how likely Wilmington was to see 2" (his threshold) yesterday, and I told him 40%. I feel that was a good estimate.

Just got up. I'll do a first call this PM....I thnk I speculated like 2-5" as a general idea on Friday.

Based on what? Law of averages?

128.

You clearly didn't read the blog post. No, I don't.

When James becomes the voice of reason, its time to retire to another hobby.

I couldn't have cared less about the other regions in 2015....you can share your's in a cum buya circle jerk all you want, but I'd prefer 100" in 30 days all to myself, rather than 50" dispersed.

Yea, Jerry is right.

I did...but that was when I thought that the solar min would occur next season. That was early speculation. One thing I may have to reexamine is my stance in solar min winters for this area...raindance may have something there. We will see.

Yes, a bust is a bust. I wasn't trying to contest that. The best methodology possible will still lead us astray from time to time in this frontier science. I will read back through some of the milder outlooks and look for what I missed should that come to pass.

I think that may end up muted...we will see.

Exactly. I know I rub people the wrong way with the smug posting style, and that coupled with the frustration of a crap first half causes some venom...but you give me the same set of indicators next season, then I'll go ballz to the walls again and probably nail it like I usually do. The folks like omega can sit on that and spin-

Still plenty of time, but I'm a straight shooter....I am frustrated right now. I don't like to keep shoveling BS in the face of reality. Not ready to declare any outcome yet, though. I won't believe that Feb will fail until I witness it. I am strongly opinionated, though.....if this does end up being a bad call, plenty of criticism is warranted. That is the risk that you take when you forecast with confidence. We aren't there yet, though....this season has been very similar to 1969, another one of my top analogs, and that season went nuclear in Feb. I think guidance is missing something right now, and blocking will be more pronounced than it currently appears.

What is voo doo science? Care to enlighten me as to what wash obvious flag last fall for a $hit winter?

Our best shot imo...the follow up deal is junk with a low ceiling.

Lol I get it.

Regardless of what happens, I don't think that my methodology was flawed, it just hasn't worked out....yet. However this slice of humble pie is probably a good indicator that the attitude needs some adjustments. Comes with experience, I guess.

No, no one ever gets it %100. But I think it needs to be considered when the seasonal H5 composite looks nothing like main analogs. Anyway, his outlook certainly looks better than mine at this point...not arguing that.

Right for the wrong reason, yes...possibly.

I'm sure weeks 3-4 of the weeklies are epic. No worries.