40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Temps were great for DEC....I was a bit too warm in January it looks like. I predicted a mean pos NAO for Jan, too....so not a huge hit there.
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The 1968-1969 analog is the one salvageable piece for me so far...I wish I had had balls enough to adhere to it more exclusively.
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So far, its a well articulated, educationally exhaustive exercise in futility. Most outlooks have been better because they have been more correct, at least as it relates to snowfall. Its not optimism. The data supports it. If it looked like $hit, then I'd call for that.
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Bc there are no valid major threats.
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I think the most prudent course of action is to expect significant snowfall later in February. I really, really don't think that its going to suck.
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No, I don't think that its occurred. We still aren't there yet. Don't get me wrong....the period is beginning later than I had thought, but we have yet to see a regime rife with potential for historic east coast systems. I mean...there were a couple of opportunities to "steal" one if things broke favorably, but they haven't....this current PV intrusion being one. We should see a period later in Feb and maybe into March.
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There are always going to be exceptions and outliers....but I'll bet that this would have been a great season 7-8/10 times.
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I don't put much weight into those climo stats because they are prone to the same sample size limitations that the rest of the data are. If there was ever a season to do it, this is it. Thanks for the link, Ken.
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The death knell to my season totals was when the first half of February went to crap...that's when I waived the white flag on my seasonal totals..I still think we'll have a nice ending, but I could not afford to lose the peak week of climo to a crap pattern and I am. I was convinced we'd see a juggernaut during that stretch, and instead its a rusty coat hanger.
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We have about a month of winter left....2nd half of Feb and first half of March.
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I don't...just guessing since the first 10 days or so of the month blow dead goats. Sucks tossing 10 days into the wind during peak climo. And I don't care how muted the torch is, or is not....it makes no difference whether its 32 and P Sunny, or 43, if it isn't going to snow either way.
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Seems as though the next major threat is about two weeks away.
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I def. adopted that....use it in my blogs quite often.
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It doesn't matter right now...he's just taking a middle route at this range.
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BOX rolling with 2-4" here....same as my range.
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Fair post.
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Its a tall task to fend off the recency bias and not expect everything to continue going wrong, but there's plant of room for optimism.
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Trough in the west looks pretty progressive to me.
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Never say never this season, but I think seeing blocking fall apart during Feb of a weak modoki is a long shot. We shall see.
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No way we end this season without some sustained blocking.....I'd be stunned.
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Hopefully we can net one big kahuna before Feb 20th...that's when my window ends. I forecasted 2 between 1/20 and 2/20.
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My seasonal numbers are likely by the boards, but I'll go to the grave thinking we are going to have a great stretch. I don't see how we get out of this season without it.
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Hopefully my pattern is delayed and not denied. I'm ready to write pickles the check, at this point...but I just want to enjoy some nice snow, regardless.
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Yea, its nice to spend 14 pages explaining why it will snow, then watch it go down the toilet. lol Steve, you are 100% right...I'm just being sarcastic.
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Fraud Five: Windex, Anafront, Norlun, Backlash, Severe/Wind Two criteria met here.
