40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Pretty simple concept...it just means that there is increased variability regarding potential track...less of that with a block, hence you don't have to thread the needle.
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I was selling the EURO idea of a big NYC blizzard. Cweat and I were all over that. I remember I had to duck for cover in the NYC thread.
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Yea, you would do better than I would in that case.
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I think the ceiling for us is a moderate event. If it phases big time, then its going to hug the shore, like Boxing day with a more tepid airmass.
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Early thoughts on Super Bowl Sunday. Slightly better look than this weekend, but don't expect blockbuster snows. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/rainy-saturday-night-super-bowl-sunday.html
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Yea, I get it. I do expect gradual improvement throughout February, so I see why people were confused by that. I agree with you on a better EPO than PNA.
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Its a long shot anytime soon, agree.
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Dec was good for alot of the area, too.
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I just mean that is my favored time slot for a KU..doesn't mean palm trees, beforehand. Anyway, sorry to derail....hopefully it flips soon
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Not a bad trait, btw...just saying...
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I can see how it fails, too...not making the same mistake I did last year, when I was onnoxiously overconfident. I get it...but I think there is still plenty of time.
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I don't know, you tell me...you like to challenge people. Lol
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February 17-March 2 -"Beware an eventful president's day should blocking establish itself. February 17-March 2nd may be conducive."-
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I think Feb should be decent, but if the pole and atl stay hostile, there is bust potential. Doesn't mean it can't snow before then...I,just feel the largest potential will be later.
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I was waiting for you to say that. Take a look at the date ranges in my outlook. 12-5 to 12-19, which missed by two days, and 2-17 to 3-2. Check your facts. Just because I don't call for April in February doesn't mean I think it's Feb 1969.
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Yea, I wouldn't expect a huge hit for us...I think from around president's day into early March will be more favorable for something closer to the magnitude of the early December event. It could be decent, though...probably some precip type issues.
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I know east based NAOs are not nearly as favorable, like ENSO events.
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The crap Pacific is expected. It may take until March, but the polar domain should improve...nothing epic, but solid. Remember when I told you in November that we will need the atlantic for a good second half?
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Not worried yet.
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Scott mentioned yesterday that 2015 was mainly on the other side of the globe...I think there is more to it than that.
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Yea...at some point you have to decide whether it is time to abandon ship. It was about the first week of February for me last year.
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Pick your indicator. What I like to do is establish a conceptualization of how the atmosphere will evolve in the preseason based upon seasonal factors, such as the QBO, and keep a vigil on the stratosphere, as well as guidance for confirmation as the winter progresses. I think if you look to guidance to develop your ideology, then you have it backwards and can end up chasing your tail, so to speak.
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Should turn out okay.
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We'll see...only halfway home. I was pretty close at this time last year, too...lol. Difference is the second half need not be extreme to verify this season.
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The QBO rate of descent has always favored later in the season for a less hostile polar domain.
