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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just don't see a scenario that SNE gets hit with a hurricane.....tropical storm, maybe, but odds still favor OTS.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree....I just mentioned Edouard as an analog on FB.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its more interesting, but still not very interesting IMO.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not about SST....check TCHP.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, you would be able to guess that by the way that I post.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny thing is that I am a LICSW...no one would guess that based upon how I write lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    "I know it’s usually HECS or bust for you but there’s a lot of marginal stuff that may not bring exciting conditions to your backyard in between that’s worth a little discussion". @WxWatcher007This last part is BS.....I track and forecast all tropical systems that have a shot at significant impact anywhere in the US. There haven't been any this season (Elsa was minimal).
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just irritated that there hasn't been anything interesting in six months...nothing personal.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its worth watching, as I am into the science of it all....but the Euro predicts you to remain a dude while gaining 30lbs and continuing to grey. I know where my money is.......
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't get me wrong, I know you are likely to remain a dude, but models have struggled this season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really do think Scooter playing the rest of his life out as a male is most likely, but I wouldn't say its a lock. Everything would really need to come into place fairly quickly for Allison to allow his outtie to convert to an innie.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    What a boring tropical season so far, and I see nothing interesting on the table.....tough to swallow after such a tepid end to winter in classic la nina fasion.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, too many knee-jerk reactions going over board with la nina last month...could see this coming.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily....there is some evidence that la nina coupled with easterly QBO leads to a flatter NPAC ridge, but I was honestly interested in hearing his rationale.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could be a Fran or Bertha type deal....
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some will, I won't.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ahh...good, 'ole summer banter, which consists of the usual bickering over whether 91/63 or 84/71 is preferred. See ya soon.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't say last season has a weak MEI....it was on par with a moderate event.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Works for me.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am not remiss that 1977 is so prevalent in rainedance's research.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense to me, as well because I do think that is a very good analog.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that was the primary impetus behind that winter being a no-show. Bit of a conflicting signal there, as easterly QBO is generally more conducive to high latitude blocking. It will bare watching, but I think the fact that this event should remain pretty weak and peak early will help our cause. I am not at all pessimistic and feel relatively confident.
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