40/70 Benchmark

Okay, you were just referring to the emergence of the more active PAC jet with the inclusion of 1994 and 2006 as analogs? My fault...I misunderstood, then. Our methodologies may actually have more in common than I had thought...that is how I use analogs. Not necessarily because I expect the whole season, or even just a month to progress in that precise manner, but because I see certain elements of value in them. This is supported by the fact that you didn't have an insanely warm December. Well done, so far....commendable effort. My apologies for being so dismissive of some of your thoughts. I agree that it should get at least somewhat better moving forward out here.

Probably, but how much is the question.

Well, I think that is implicit with any long range outlook...all you can do is play the odds based upon the pattern you see. And no worries...you can tell me that my outlook sucked. Its okay I've missed it...luck, or no luck. Its cool, though....I've learned a lot doing it, and I hope others have, too.

Talk to me in 2 months. Go back in look at his stuff...I didn't see it either, but I'll revisit it.

Not the stars...just the best version of myself.

I think seasons like this advance the science the most. Last season was easy....I knew the answer to 2+2 was 4 heading in. But when you tell me something that I don't know? I call that room for growth.

Well some of it is explainable....with no blocking, there is an avenue for every storm to cut, and with poorly timed confluence, also an avenue for every storm to whiff south. But when all of them avail themselves of said opportunities? I call it SNE's Patrick Mahomes impersonation at the meteorological coin flip.

I don't play "met"...I play me pursuing an outlet that keeps me grounded and enriches my life. Kind of like running does for you. I hope we both have many more years of doing so.

There are always nuances that are tough to nail down. 1997 was pretty decent up there.

That super el nino was not as horrendously east-based as 1997 and 1982....which is why I nailed the mid atl blizzard. I just went overboard and forested too much snow in NNE, and it was awful up there. I know 1983 had the megalopolis deal, but I think odds are elevated when it isn't so extremely east based.

Well, its been a ratter here and I agree with you.

Everything is relative. Hey, when you come from the banks of the Shawsheen river, you take what you can get.

Precisely what I have been arguing. I get that sensible weather is the most important aspect, but temperatures are sensible, as well. I don't think my outlook is an "F" in the aggregate, however for snowfall it is. I get that this will piss some people off, but oh well. I'd say its a D+, right now....which is neck and neck with 2015-2016 super el nino for my worst work of the five that I've done.

This is how most people think, and why most laymen don't attempt long range forecasting.

Yea...excellent, SO FAR. I always add that...

Man, hit 0 Thursday night and -4.5 last night...impressive cold. I radiate pretty well here....nestled in at like 154' amid lots of 250-350' hills.

Exactly. Except for raindance...exceptional call by him. He mentioned something about low solar years being crappy for sne snowfall.

Raindance was also entertaining the notion of a strong el nino as recently as like Nov or Dec, and was comparing this to 1997-1998, so I think everyone has had some moments of confusion. Best outlook, though.

I noted the paltry MEI all along, but interpreted as a sign that el nino would stay weak like 1969. Never thought it meant nina.

Absolutely. Assuming nothing drastically changes, completely agree. This happens to everyone, though....raindance puked on himself last season, and I absolutely nailed it.

I'd almost feel better if it just stayed awful bc at this point, if we rocked, I'd be killing myself for not going more assertively with 1969.

Yea, I give up. Ready for the SB and fantasy baseball....if it snows, great Sorry the outlook sucked azz.

We didn't complain about it, but it was def. acknowledged.

There is variance in everything. Most assuredly the most chatic element that we know of in the global atmosphere. As usual..disagree.