40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I think we will have another favorable period for a biggie....sure, the pattern will not be perfect and will be flawed, but serviceable imo. We aren't on the verge of spring...that is frustration speaking for some.
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Odds of a miss have increased, but no one should be resigned to this yet. There is plenty of time for precip type issues to erupt on guidance. This can happen fast with a multitude of SWs that have yet to be completely sampled in a lightning fast flow. That is my objective opinion.
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The inverted trough look is the model's of way of reconciling the formerly robust solution with the increasingly likely reality of a miss.
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I had slightly above normal snowfall, and with the exception of not being extreme enough with the magnitude of the anticpated warmth in January, its gone very well. I didn't expect the next big event until between 2/17 and 3/2, so this going to the fish would be a victory for me as far as timing goes.
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Yea, in Alabama....snow verifies much more here.
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Hit him over the head with a Hadley Cell, the force him to read one of his posts from start finish.
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Absolutely, but an abrupt about face is within the real of plausibility for about 24-48 more hours.
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We don't what is or isn't in the cards yet.
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Yep.
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What a meteorological martyr....
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Thank you.
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Becuase I don't want rain.
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If I have to sink, I'd rather sunshine than another cold rain. Simple. Last thing I want is a track along the Jersey shore.
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I said last night, OP Euro whiffing is concerning because much of the SW interaction is taking place within its 120hr wheelhouse. However I would wait until 12z tomorrow before assuming any clarity, as everything will have been sampled by then. I would rather risk a whiff than a hug...just me.
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Keep it east and I'll take my chances.
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I'd rather a miss than a tuck in a marginal airmass.
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Nice trade imo.
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Euro is a complete and utter abomination of an abortion. I'm not sure Dr. Dews could have engineered a shittier solution from his humidor of a cave given those players on the field. Each of the several SWs spaced perfectly as to avoid interaction with surgical, maniacal precision. Its doing that inside of 120hrs, so if the EPS looks like shit, this event is in trouble imo...but I guess you could give it until Wed AM, when all players will be ashore.
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Keep in mind, eastern Mass is too warm on this because it can't resolve the CF properly...gradient would be tighter than this and closer to coast. same 12-18" as the GFS, just a hair nw. UK:
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That's pretty good consistency from the UK...wow.
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UK and its 2-2.5" of QPF is leaving something on the table, too....965mb with another SW on the outside looking in down in the mid atl....those have been trending closer. That solution is a rt 128-495 belt CF.
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UK is a central NE jack form looking at H7..
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I'm guessing its pure a stream..
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Clearly a whiff.
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Run jacks my area...prob 12-18"..
