40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Crushed, or in the game? Crushed....100mi......in the game...50mi.
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What I see mostly is a tightening of the timing and a drift west at 12z.
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There are def. more western members close to the Mass coast here on the 12z EPS relative to 06z....worth watching.
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Still quite a lean west at hr 114, east of Mass on the EPS....I agree with most that this is slipping away, but its not yet past tense.
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I expected more a December PNA than what materialized, and January was warmer than I had....only flaws, so far. I did have January mild, though...tough to forecast +6 months in advance, though I did that for February 2018...huge signal for obscene warmth.
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I count about 17 of the 52 EPS members that would result in a major storm for the area.
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Probably, but I'd give it 18 hours, or so...
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I was never on the big early blocking train....my idea of a variable early NAO in December leading to an active and wintery pattern worked out...but I expected the PV to be kicking a$$ and taking names again by the holidays for an extended period right through the heart of winter. Second half I had dependent on the atlantic and high latitudes....without it, early spring. My hedge was towards at least one good period of NAO, so waiting on that.
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Two observations regarding the 12z EPS. 1) Mean is about 100mi east of the BM 2) Most of the spread is SW and slower, with not much NE and faster Interpret that information as you will.
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I estimated that the descenion of the easterly QBO wave would take place by about February, which represents one factor contributing to an overall less hostile environment for blocking.
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This needs to change or it doesn't matter what the N stream does.
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There isn't much for the N stream to phase with since so much energy is held back near Baja.
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Its like Jeffrey Dahmer lecturing an ethics committee.
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Does it actually track closer, or is at just H5 improvement?
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Yea...12z tmw is my deadline.
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If I could, I wipe my a$$ with the outlook in exchange for having that polar stud bend the southern bell over the benchmark.
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All I needed to see for now.
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Its a faster pattern, but I think there is more latent energy available here...like 4 SWs.
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I didn't trade $hit. I have no control over it. ...but verifying is of some consolation to me. I think it's human nature to strive for success...regardless of whether its a career or hobby.
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DT and Judah.. I think Earthlight, too
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I'd say 1/4.....12" is 1/8.
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I think we will have another favorable period for a biggie....sure, the pattern will not be perfect and will be flawed, but serviceable imo. We aren't on the verge of spring...that is frustration speaking for some.
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Odds of a miss have increased, but no one should be resigned to this yet. There is plenty of time for precip type issues to erupt on guidance. This can happen fast with a multitude of SWs that have yet to be completely sampled in a lightning fast flow. That is my objective opinion.
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The inverted trough look is the model's of way of reconciling the formerly robust solution with the increasingly likely reality of a miss.
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I had slightly above normal snowfall, and with the exception of not being extreme enough with the magnitude of the anticpated warmth in January, its gone very well. I didn't expect the next big event until between 2/17 and 3/2, so this going to the fish would be a victory for me as far as timing goes.
