40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I think much has changed today. The GFS was wrong when it showed a blizzard, and its likely wrong now. Should be a decent snow.
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I don't think I have snow googles...track record is pretty good. This winter threw most for a loop. It is what it is.
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Doesn't change my thoughts.
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I've been wishing it over for about a week.
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Yes...I would take 6-12" and run.
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Yea, I don't care what phase the MJO is in, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that ++++AO and RNA doesn't not have a chapter in the Kocin book. Hope for mediocrity. The guidance is flux struggling to reconcile the storm idea with the SE ridge (+AO/RNA), and the end result is likely to be manageable.
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I feel like it may be kind of like January 20th with slightly colder mid levels and not as impressive low level cold....less QPF, too. We may try for a little more redevelopment of the mid levels as it exits, too, which could help NE areas.
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So now overcompensate.... Its a factor that can enhance or mitigate the likelihood of a major winter storm, but it doesn't operate in a vacuum. The pattern doesn't looks great to me, it looks okay.
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You are going to be stroking the MJO in July waiting for the blizzard it promised you last November.
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I agree...most, anyway..
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Yea, agree RE hugger, but prob not a big deal unless you have hopes pinned to a blizzard...which is unlikely for a myriad of aforementioned reasons.
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I like Maine in this...more time to redevelop mid levels.
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I agree. From what I have gathered from Will, 700-800'
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There is some confluence...need to try to get mid levels to redevelop east..which is tough, but not impossible. Low levels will, no prob.
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I think it will be better than that..widespread warning, but widespread over 12" will be tough.
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Yes.
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Poof.
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I favor something like that.
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Im in bed...need pics
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My main concern is the se ridge poking up enough to increase the gradient and make a sloppier/delayed phase more likely.
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39.9/29.1 here...getting there..
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Yea, I think I took the sig ice potential line down to like Attleboro to Hingham..
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Early thoughts for ice, and snow next week. Favoring a moderate snow event next week, but big one can't be ruled out. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/mid-week-ice-threat-snow-potential-next.html
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I know that this the Feb thread, but does anyone have a decent temp anomaly map for January? TIA.
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Will probably end up hugging, too.
