40/70 Benchmark

Its like avoiding the doctor in an effort to disassociate from that lump on your throat that has been growing for about year....

Mean sucks ass. -"What does she look like, Johnny" -"She has a beautiful heart that warms a room"

Yup.

GEFS will be suppressed

Probably for the best.

The first one looks like a firehose event.

I'd sign.

From a SNE perspective, that's a cutter.

I won't remain all frozen.

I meant east, but you probably gathered that....

He calls it the kids' playroom...

I think the ridge could stand to be a bit further east...its not ideal, but better and perhaps servicable.

The blog actually helps me to stay a bit more grounded about this because active patterns end up being a lot of work, which is made paltable by my passion for said acitvity. However, being able to disengage and shirk the self-imposed responsibility of writing and constructing graphics is a worthy consolation for tolerating mundane weather. This is why my most loathed pattern is a fast-paced flow with a rapid succession of moderate events, which maximize work and minimize the reward of intrigue. This shit tonight and tomorrow AM? It can fu*k right off....nothing more than a brief social media shout out.

Because winter elicits the highest of expectations around here...failure is baseline for severe and tropical...and no one expects to sustain a pants tent from temp/dew talk.

Exactly. But by the same token, I don't have an issue with others that deal differently...whether it be sledding off to a cabin in east dear-taint, Maine, walking the dogs to a hill to toboggan in an inch of mud, or simply going quiet. Everyone processes the shit in their own way. I prefer to vent a bit before drifting away into other outlets.

I don't think I will lose cover....have like 9" right now....low 40s won't kill that....especially not after adding a few inches first.....probably be left with 6-7".

As of right now, the system on the 24th actually isn't dealing with that aforementioned malady that has plagued this season. Lets see if it holds.

I don't see why the 20th will work out with that same dysfunctional look we have had all season....duped just like I was with respect to Jan 11, which failed for the same reason.

I was just about checked out when it was snowing in New Orleans last month, but got roped back in by the PV split...now I'm just about done.

Yea, I touched upon that in a subseuqent post.

Probably best shot would be late, when the wavelengths change because that would alter this seasonal misalignment.

Gotcha. Yea, the alignment/timing is just off and models can't pick up on that at extended leads. Frustrating, but at least we have seen a hemispheric shift this year.

Probably not a huge one. I think I need 15" to hit my forecast range for MBY...should pull that off, but perhaps barely.

I think you'll find some....that plunges troughs into the center of the country.

The good news? I think we are out of this decade long pattern we have been in....its just that the first run out of the gate was flawed in other ways.